Terry Gilliam/AP Photo

I’ve heard a lot about how tough it is to make predictions this season. Well, here’s an important term for 2009-2010: mediocrity. Outside of the top and bottom 3 or 4 teams in each conference, pretty well everyone is stuck in it. So yes, it’s going to be a tough year to predict in some ways. But you can count me among those to say that this year the difference between good teams, great teams and shit teams will be more noticeable than ever. I was originally just going to just rank the teams without win totals. Why? Limit the damage, baby. Limit the damage. Unfortunately, I’ve been told I need to do wins/losses too. So, totals in brackets after the pick.

Eastern Conference

1) Cleveland: Lost in 6 last year, improved at almost every position. Shaq tends to have big first years with teams. Added leadership, depth and quality. (64-18)

2) Orlando: Is Vince an upgrade on Turk? Maybe. But a slight upgrade at 1 position puts them behind the Cavs who’ve loaded up specifically with the goal of beating the Magic in mind. (61-21)

3) Boston: Even if the big 3 dwindles to the Big 2 and Sheed, they still have Rondo. For this year at least, they’re still title challengers. Do yourself a favour though C’s fans, don’t check out the Celts salary info for next year. And don’t think about Ray Allen and potentially Rondo expiring. And don’t think about another year on KGs odometer. And for the love of god don’t think about what Sheed did last year in Detroit. (58-24)

4) Atlanta: Last year Josh Smith had a pretty crappy year by his standards. They’re basically the same club from last year, but captain obvious says: When one of your best players is significantly better from last season, that’s an improvement in overall team performance. (50-32)

5) Toronto: Last year everything that could go wrong for the Raps did, and Toronto still didn’t finish that far from the post season. A healthy Jose, a motivated Bosh and a deep bench should provide more wins. (49-33)

6) Chicago: Losing Gordon hurt, but that should be mitigated by the natural growth of their young players. I love Rose. I love Noah. Hell, I even love lamp. They’ll be good. (47-35)

7) Miami: Dwayne Wade. That is all (42-40)

8) Washington: Gilbert Arenas. That is all. (41-41)

9) Indiana: Take the best white guys the NCAA can produce, put them with a beast down low (Hibbert), throw in a real good point guard in T.J. and they’ll do decently well. Just not quite good enough this year. (39-43)

10) Detroit: I like the pieces, just the whole puzzle doesn’t look so good. Weak up front. Weak on defense. And their biggest problem: only 1 ball to share and nary a distributor to be found. (38-44)

11) Charlotte: I like the direction they were going in last year. And MJ being as hands off as possible is quite possibly the best thing that could ever happen to this franchise. Well, short of a new owner buying the team who actually bothers to learn the names of his players. (36-46)

12) Philly: Where letting your only point guard walk away happens. Pray for Brand’s health or else they could be even worse. (33-49)

13) New York: D’Antoni and Lee have to be worth a few wins, right? Bonus prediction: Instead of going to games, Knicks fans will be flooding confessionals around the greater New York area to try and cleanse the city of sin in hopes of the fabled LeBron showing up. One thing working in the Knicks favour: All scriptures talk about the Messiah showing up in times of chaos. So they have that going for them, which is nice. (32-50)

14) Milwuakee: Lost Charlie V. Lost Sessions. Probably going to lose Redd within a few months. So yeah. (28-54)

15) New Jersey: Sure they’re building something. But this year will not be pretty. (24-58)

Playoffs

First round: Cleveland vs. Washington, Orlando vs. Miami, Boston vs. Chicago, Atlanta vs. Toronto.
Well, at least there might be 2 entertaining first round series’. Cleveland and Orlando romp; Chicago actually manages to upset the C’s who will be playing shorthanded due to injury, and Toronto takes Atlanta in 6 after exposing the Hawks bench.

Second round: Cleveland vs. Toronto, Orlando vs. Chicago.
Let’s all congratulate Toronto and Chicago on their wonderful seasons.

East Final: Cleveland vs. Orlando.
This is where the additions the Cavs made really pay off, Cavs win it in 6.

Western Conference

1) Los Angeles Lakers: The best until proven otherwise. Sure, they might have downgraded from Ariza to Artest, but if any team could afford such a risky move, it’s the Lake Show. (63-19)

2) San Antonio: Love everything they did this offseason. Love Manu getting rest. Love Timmy getting rest. Love RJ. Love Blair. (62-20)

3) Denver: Uhhh didn’t you people read this? (60-22)

4) Portland: This year they have the natural progression of their young players and added a guy who will probably be the best backup PG in the league. Only worry: does Aldridge lose some motivation after that big contract? (58-24)

5) Utah: Come on. It’s Utah. As the great Swirsky’d say, book it. (53-29)

6) Phoenix: I have no rhyme, reason or rationale behind this pick beyond the fact that this is Nash’s last realistic shot at a playoff run, Amar’e is back healthy and they’re running again. Do they have enough in the tank for one more run in the playoffs? I hope so for Nash’s sake. (51-31)

7) New Orleans: Hey! Look! It’s the Chris Paul’s! On a serious note: play Mo Pete. Just do it. I won’t be asking again. (50-32)

8) Los Angeles Clippers: Another team whose offseason I’m in love with. And hey, who wouldn’t like to see the hyper talented young Clippers vs. the defending champion elder statesmen Lakers? If I didn’t set up a Denver/Phoenix first round orgasm (for me or anyone who likes offensive basketball that is), it’d be the best first round matchup possible. Or at least one of the more intriguing. (48-34)

9) Dallas: Uh-oh! I have Dallas missing the playoffs! How?! I dunno. Just something about the makeup of this Mavs team rubs me the wrong way. I think in some years they’d have a real good team, just in this year’s Western conference they aren’t built to compete with the best. Aren’t enough bad teams this year to lose to the good ones and still be able to make the playoffs. (47-35)

10) Oklahoma City: They just need one more year of seasoning before they take that next step. Like a stew. Just let‘em simmer for a bit. (42-40)

11) Houston: Can a team compete with $40 million in salary on the shelf due to injuries? Unfortunately, probably not. I’m sure they’ll be far more competitive than they should be; I just see this team losing a lot of close games to good teams. (41-41)

12) Golden State: Now it looks like they’re going to have to trade Stephen Jackson by the deadline. As if they didn’t have enough problems. Yeesh. My prediction: Fan anger. And lots of it. (38-44)

13) Minnesota: Well, at least they have Jefferson and Love. (30-52)

14) Memphis: YOU ALREADY HAD MARC GASOL! WHY DID YOU DRAFT A BUST OF A BIG MAN AND TRADE FOR ZACH RANDOLPH! ARE YOU INSANE?!?!?! YOU’RE GOING TO KILL HIS CAREER!!! Sorry. Had to get that off my chest. Where were we? (27-55)

15) Sacramento: Well, at least they’ll sell a few jerseys to Jewish basketball fans, like me. I’ll be watching for Casspi, but I can’t imagine too many people will watch for any reason. Which is too bad. Lots of teams are going to play great games against these guys. My prediction: A lot of games where fans go “How the hell did the Kings give up 130 points to the fucking ________?!” (17-65)

Playoffs

First round: Lakers vs. Clippers, San Antonio vs. New Orleans, Denver vs. Phoenix, Portland vs. Utah.
Clippers fight hard, but just don’t have the talent to hang with the Lakers over 7. Lakers in 5. San Antonio embarrasses New Orleans. Denver and Phoenix have the series of the playoffs, averaging 230+ points a game combined throughout the series, with Denver taking it in 6 games. And Portland and Utah have a battle, but ultimately the Blazers are too talented. Top 4 seeds all advance.

Second round: Lakers vs. Portland, San Antonio vs. Denver.
Lakers again just over talent Portland. Lakers in 6. San Antonio vs Denver, though, is tough. Denver has weapons at all positions and I like Denver’s bench better. It’ll be close but my gut says Nuggets in 7.

West Finals: Lakers vs. Denver.
Deja vu all over again? This year, Denver comes in more prepared than they were last year. They’ll have real inbounds plays and everything! JR and Melo will both play better (pretty impressive considering what they did last year). Not to mention the Artest Factor: Eventually Ron-Ron will do something stupid at a bad time and Denver will capitalize. All of which leads to Nuggets in 7.

NBA Finals

Cleveland vs Denver.
I’ma stick with LeBron here. He’s due. Cavs in 6.