Outside The NBA

Ah yes, a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, so I’m going to embrace the optimism. To those who know me, this is no surprise; optimism is practically my middle name. But this year just FEELS different for some reason. The Raptors have almost completely remade their team. With a new coach, new philosophy, new feel overall.

I firmly believe confidence is the most underrated intangible in sports. When teams get on a roll, each win seems to build on the last. That confidence allows for clarity in the last seconds of a chaotic game. It allows for proper plays to be run and shots to be taken properly, not rushed. Panic is the enemy of any coach. One of the biggest problems in the past for the Raptors was a lack of confidence. Of swagger. At the end of close games, particularly last year, you could feel the anxiety on the bench. Not a good look for a winner. So, why should this year be any different? Well, the Raps have a few things to build confidence around.

Firstly there’s Jay Triano. I’m an unabashed Smitch fan. I loved the intensity he brought to every game, to every play. I love how he expected the best out of every player in uniform and anything less would get your ass parked on the bench. That said, he wasn’t the greatest X’s and O’s guy. The lack of a proper plan on both offense and defense lead directly to many of the losses we encountered last year. Granted Smitch was gone by December, but unfortunately for Jay, it’s tough to implement a new philosophy mid-season. There just isn’t the practice time to change bad habits. This year, Jay is working with a blank slate. He has a defensive wizard to help him out (Iavaroni), and the confidence of being entrusted with helping prep the future Dream Teamers. Jay’s learned from the best, from Coach K to Jim Boeheim and Mike D’Antoni. Now, with a full training camp, he gets to pass everything he’s learned on to the Raptors, and frankly I’m excited to see what the guy can do. He’s definitely much more of a players’ coach, he’s good with the X’s and O’s and he brings a calmness to the bench. No matter what happens, he is in control. For the players on the court, that’s big. The player can look over to the bench and feed off that calmness, and that should translate into less panic on the court.

Next on the docket: the players who will be learning from Jay. One of the bonuses of the total remodelling of a franchise is that all bad habits are GONE. Everyone is starting fresh, everyone is on the same page. That’s one BIG good thing. The second is when you replace Jason Kapono with DeMar DeRozan, you get a huge upgrade all over the court. DeRozan was a decent defender and rebounder in college (I don’t think I need to mention his ups). Since then, all he’s done is add a ton of muscle and work his ass off in the practice gym. Bringing in Reggie Evans and Rasho Nesterovic are obviously a boost to the Raptors front court depth but their true value may be more in the intangible category. Every report out of Raptors training camp we’ve heard is how those two guys are forcing Bargnani to alter his game: to grow. They’re forcing him to work, to adapt, to bang, to fight on the court. We know about Bargnani’s emerging offensive prowess, but I’m looking for big things from him defensively. Hedo Turkoglu is not a good defender. There’s no two ways about it. Then again, before the JO trade the 3 was handled mostly by Jamario Moon. Nothing against Jamario, but if he is starting for your NBA team, missing the playoffs should not be coming as a surprise. Basically: if Turk can score 18+ points most games, the extra offense will make up for the step back on defense. Jose on the other hand is a mediocre defender who had a terrible year in 2008-2009. Last year, he was hampered with a bad hamstring (word on the street is it was an over 2-inch tear), which basically made it impossible for him to stay in front of his man. Having him back at full health is an improvement over last year defensively at the point. So the starting 5 overall loses some defense because of Hedo, but there should be improvement from within at the 1 and the 5. As far as rebounding goes, losing Shawn Marion is obviously painful to the team rebounding effort, especially when considering his replacement is Turk. But, remember they replaced the Parker/Kapono combo with DeRozan/Wright, plus replaced Voskuhl/Mensah-Bonsu with Nesterovic/Evans/Johnson. Time will tell, but I’d say with all these changes, it’s a wash or maybe a slight improvement on the boards. The wild card in that is DeRozan. He has the abilities, he just has to make the most of them.

And speaking of Rasho/Reggie/ Amir, the Raps’ 2nd unit is ready for war. With these guys, plus Wright, Jarret Jack, Sonny Weems, Patrick O’Bryant, Quincy Douby and Marco Belinelli coming off the bench, the Raptors have options. This group includes some good defenders and rebounders. There’s some offense here, as well. Jack proved to be a more than effective point guard last season. Amir Johnson is one of my favourite underrated players in the Association. He’s an athletic monster who goes hard every second he’s on the court. If there’s a loose ball near the hoop, watch out. He’s going up HARD. Rasho is Rasho, he has proved his worth over the years. All in all, I’ll go so far as to say the Raptors 2nd unit could be as strong as any in the Association. The bench’s main impact though will be at the end of games, in my opinion. I’m not sold on opponent’s FG% as a really great stat for one simple reason: a stop at the end of the game is worth more than a stop in the first quarter. The Raptors lost so many games in the last minute last year that it made my head and heart hurt. My liver didn’t talk to me for weeks after the season ended. If the Raptors now have the ability to sub in a few lockdown defenders for a big defensive stand, that is worth than a few extra wins this season. Especially when you pair this with the improved offense the Raptors bring to the court. The example I gave my cohort on this blog James was, say a team has in general a good defensive game. They give up in three quarters an average of 23 points against. But they blow up one quarter and give up 35 points. The opponent’s FG% might not be that bad, but that still would count in my book as a bad defensive game (for me, a defensive collapse in the 4th causing a loss is always going to be a bad game). Go check tape of the first Nets/Raptors game last year. Granted, the Nets played well in the 2nd half, but if Carter wasn’t left open not once but TWICE at the end of the game, the Raptors probably win. And by probably I mean almost certainly. In fact, I don’t want to talk about this. I feel sick again.

How can I make myself feel better…. oh yeah! The Raptors offense is, in a word: wow. Jose back at full health to distribute the ball; DeRozan flying all over the court, tracking down loose balls, throwing down dunks and generally slicing through the defense; Bosh with his newly developed size and desire to get to the post more; Bargnani with his continued growth from last year and the Turk impact to hit big shots and find open teammates make the Raptors starting 5 INCREDIBLY dangerous. All can shoot, all can pass, all can get to the basket. If any team tries to double team any single Raptor, watch out. These guys can and will find an open man, and he can and will make the right shots and passes. The bench gives numerous different looks as well. Amir Johnson is a beast around the basket offensively (youtube him – if you’ve never really watched him before, get ready to fall in love, Toronto). Belinelli can shoot and is an underrated ball handler. Jack is worthy of being a starting 1 or 2 on some teams. He can handle the ball, he can shoot, he can get into traffic in the lane, he’s tenacious, he wants to win, and he’s a natural leader. The sky is honestly the limit for this club on offense. I don’t have anything else to say about it. It should be a masterpiece.

That is the biggest reason the Raptors will be amongst the top tier of the Eastern Conference this year. The Raptors, unlike most teams, and unlike what conventional wisdom or any basketball coach worth his salt would normally say, can win giving up over 100 points a game. Why? Because the Raptors can score 110 a game and not blink. The team is almost impossible to defend. They will shoot a high percentage. They have guys who will fight and scrap for loose balls. They have lockdown defenders and veteran leaders on the bench, they have a healthy Jose Calderon looking to rebound, and most importantly, they have Bosh. Bosh took last year as a personal insult. He wants to be the best. He wants to be the 3rd guy next summer in the Wade/LeBron talk. The only way for that to happen isn’t to improve his own stats (which are already pretty mind-blowing), but to improve the overall success of the team. Bosh needs to prove that he can lead a team to wins, to the playoffs, and beyond. If he wants to seriously be considered in the LeBron/Wade conversation there is no other way. Bosh knows this. He saw success coming from the post rather than the elbow, so he bulked up to stay healthy enough to bang under the hoop all year. He has 4 guys to pass the ball to who are dangerous players. And most importantly, the dirty secret of the Raptors this year: Bosh doesn’t need to carry the team to wins. If Bosh has an off night there are enough other weapons that can carry this club. Bosh won’t be counted on to break down defences as time winds down on the game clock now that Turk is around. Bosh won’t be forced to backup at center due to injuries, thanks to the depth that currently exists up front. He won’t be seeing as many double teams due to the overall firepower of the club (who gets left open – Jose? Bargnani? Turk? DeRozan?). All Bosh has to worry about this year is himself. So to recap: Healthy Jose, HIGHLY motivated Bosh, improved Bargnani, upgrade at EVERY SINGLE OTHER POSITION, except possibly defence and rebounding at the starting 3 (but improvement off the bench and in other spots).

So where are the extra wins to get the Raptors into the playoffs coming from? Well, the rest of the Eastern Conference may not be as strong as advertised when you look at it closely. Miami is counting on Jermaine O’Neal’s health this year (check his quotes – it’s freaking groundhog day for him) – any Raptors fan can tell Heat supporters how that’s going to go. Philadelphia got worse, Atlanta stayed the same, Boston has to seriously start looking at life without KG being KG (if they don’t have him at or near full strength, there’s no sugar-coating it, they will be much worse), the Knicks actually might have gotten worse (if that’s possible) and the Nets definitely did. In fact, the only teams that improved are Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington and Chicago. Charlotte’s improvement MIGHT net them the 8th seed, Orlando and Cleveland were already one and two in the east. So that means two teams in direct competition with the Raps improved, while 6 or 7 either stayed the same or got worse. Including potentially every team in the Raptors division. Even if the Raptors had thrown out the same line-up as last year, they’d probably improve by 2-3 spots, but they aren’t throwing out the same team. The Raptors are throwing out potentially the best offense in the entire Association. 4 more wins last year and the Raptors leapfrog Indiana, Charlotte, New Jersey and Milwaukee. All of whom got worse this offseason. 7 more wins and they leapfrog Detroit (who may or may not have jumped off a cliff this offseason) and make the playoffs.

I went through last season’s results and picked out some losses that don’t sit well with me. Last season, the Raptors lost 129-127 to New Jersey in OT (in a game that could arguably go down as the worst loss in franchise history); 98-97 to Portland. They lost to Detroit, Philly, New Orleans, New Jersey again (by 7), Golden State (by 6), Milwaukee by 10, Indiana by 7, Milwaukee AGAIN by 11, MEMPHIS by 8 (scoring 70 points), the Knicks by 30 (the freaking Knicks!), Detroit by 4 in OT, Charlotte by 13 and Charlotte by 26 back to back (!), the Knicks by 9, Indiana by 29, and Washington by 2. Theoretically, every one of those should be a win. Obviously teams lose games they should win all the time, but that right there is 19 games that could easily have been wins. If they had won 9, suddenly the Raptors were 42 and 40 and in the 6th spot.

Last year, the Raptors scored 99 PPG and allowed 102. Even if the team defence doesn’t improve from last year (and I think it will), the offense scoring 106+ points a game translates to wins. Pure and simple. Even if that’s only an extra 4 or 5 that they would have lost last year, add those with the loses that were games thrown away last year and suddenly the Raptors are looking at 46-47 wins and the 4th spot overall. Is it that easy? Absolutely it is. The competition got worse and the team got better. Good teams beat the teams that they should beat. This club is built to withstand injury. This club is built to score. And this club is being moulded right now into a team that can play passable defense. The injection of heart (guys like Evans and Rasho, plus the extra motivation of Jose and Bosh to prove to themselves and the world that they are among the best ballers in the world) and leadership also boost the intangible qualities of the club. With a little confidence and some swagger to go with it, the kind that can only come from seeing success and building on it, and this could be a team to fear. If they get on a roll, watch out. This is a good team, now they just have to prove it.