Outside The NBA

Ah yes a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, but I figured I’d get a head start. Optimism is running wild in Toronto, but there are a few pitfalls that Raptors Nation is overlooking.

First, while Jay Triano is a highly respected international coach, he is a rookie NBA head coach. The NBA game and the European game are very different (see: United States Men’s basketball teams in 2002 and 2004). Jay has never led a pro training camp. He’s never developed the battle plan for an NBA season. He’s never managed the ego and minutes of 15 grown whiny, selfish babies for an entire season. He’s never really dealt with media criticism. He also has a key new face as an assistant coach. Marc Iavaroni was a highly, highly respected defensive-minded assistant coach with Phoenix. Then he bombed out as a head coach. How will he react to what effectively is a demotion? He’s now behind a maturing head coach. Again. This is the same place his career was 7 years ago when D’Antoni was hired in Phoenix. Will he demand the same respect in the room that he had? The other difficulty Jay has is implementing a system. In Toronto it’s a blank slate with so many new players. The blank slate can work out in either really good or really bad ways; totally depending on how it is used by the coach, and how it is accepted by the players. Will Jay, a rookie coach, be able to capture a team made up of some fairly veteran players? Will he and Iavaroni be able to come up with a defensive scheme that can hide Hedo Turkoglu completely? That will help out Jose Calderon? Will he be able to teach Demar DeRozan to adapt to the NBA game quick enough to be a presence on the floor?

These are just some of the problems the Raptors face. They’ve got a rookie at the 2, a defensively-challenged player at the 3, and a question mark at the 5. Bargnani developed nicely towards the end of last year, but this summer with the Italian team his progress seemed to stagnate. He isn’t good defensively (although he was showing improvement last season), and will be asked to carry a large load this year without Jermaine O’Neal to hide behind. He should benefit from playing one position all year, but will the team benefit out of it? Hedo Turkoglu, like Bargs, is a good offensive player. No-one doubts that. With Orlando last year he hit some monster shots, and generally was one of Orlando’s best players. That’s nothing to sneeze at. That said, defensive problems can be masked when you have Dwight Howard behind you. Offensive problems can be hidden much the same way. Turkoglu is 30 and isn’t exactly an ‘athlete’ by NBA standards. He had five dunks last year. He came from a team with one all world player, 1 all star, and a point guard who embarrassed Jose Calderon when the two clubs met up two years ago. As for DeRozan, yes he had a good final four last year. But look at his numbers from the whole season. Sure there was improvement, but he didn’t exactly blow people out of the water for the first half of the year. In fact, he didn’t do a lot of anything for the first 2-3 months of the season. The adjustment from college to the NBA is a much tougher transition than the transition from high school to college (especially considering that jump for him was from Compton High to USC, or a trip of about 22 minutes by car). How is he going to handle being on his own? How is he going to handle the responsibilities of being a man both on and off the court? How is he going to handle being asked to defend the Wades and Kobes of the world? Is too much being put on the young man’s plate at once? He’s shown himself to have a good attitude and seems to have all the tools, but asking a 20-year-old to put everything together for his first NBA game, or even season, is a bit much. He is very much a raw talent still.

The bench appears to be a source of strength for the Raptors, but looks can be deceiving. Jarrett Jack deserves minutes. Marco Belinelli and Amir Johnson need minutes to improve, as they are young and talented. Rasho Nesterovic and Reggie Evans were both good pickups for depth, but Rasho is getting up there in years. And while Reggie Evans gives 110% every time he’s on the floor, he just isn’t that skilled a ball player. Let’s take a look at last year’s stats – His rebounding rate is an outstanding 19.0% (meaning he grabs 19% of the available rebounds when he’s on the floor), but he has a turnover rate of 21.3% and a TS% of 51.4%, both of which are absolutely horrible for a big man. The man had a PER of only 10.4 and, considering the weight PER gives to rebounds, that is a red flag. You don’t need advanced statistics to understand Reggie’s limitations, though. Watch him play for just a few minutes and you will see a guy who stands out for his aggressive play, but is a liability on both offense and defense. He misses easy put-backs, fouls unnecessarily, and tries to do things he can’t do. I love the effort he brings and hope it’s contagious, but he can’t really be on the floor for longer than 10-12 minutes a game.

Sure the bench also has Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Quincy Douby, but realistically if the Raptors are counting on them for anything more than mop up duty, we’re all in a heap of trouble. The question facing Jay is how do you get the young guys minutes, while allowing the vets to play an important role (something all successful teams need) and keep everyone happy? Can you play Evans minutes that cripple the offense, even if he earns them through hard practices? What if Belinelli proves that Don Nelson was right to bury him on the bench in Golden State? Quincy Douby showed promise in summer league, but that’s meaningless. Amir Johnson has been in the league 4 years, and still hasn’t come close to this massive potential he is sitting on. The kid is loaded with talent, but it’s been 4 years and he hasn’t been able to put it together. After learning from Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Antonio McDyess, maybe the question shouldn’t be WHEN he is going to put it together, but rather WHY he hasn’t thus far. If he doesn’t get consistent (and stop fouling so much) soon, suddenly the bench is counting on the offensively challenged Evans, the elder statesman of Rasho, and the enigma of Patrick O’Bryant. Eep.

Additionally, if Belinelli, DeRozan, and Wright all prove to be unable to start at the 2 guard, suddenly the Raptors may be facing a situation where backup PG Jarrett Jack needs to do so. He proved to be capable at the 2 last season in Indiana, and there are advantages to having two floor generals on the court at once, but this is not ideal in all situations. Against bigger 2s, Jack is overmatched. His good defensive instincts can’t compensate for the fact that he’s only 6’3 and 200 pounds.

Moreover, in the NBA, all good teams have a go-to guy. I’m talking about guys who can carry a team to a win when everyone else is having an off night. Granted the Raptors have Bosh but, and I say this as both a Bosh and Raptors fan, how many times in the past 4 years has Bosh lifted the Raptors on his shoulders and carried the club to a win? What about Jose or Bargs? How many times did Hedo lift Orlando to wins? The Raptors just don’t have ‘that’ guy who can create his own shot and score at will. It’s been a hole since Carter left and it continues to be a hole today.

Health is also an issue. We saw what a hampered Jose meant to the Raptors in the wins/loss column, even though his individual stats were still pretty good. I know Jose took the summer off and is in perfect health now, but what if Jose misses time again? Or picks up a lingering injury? Sure that can be said of most teams starting point guards, but on the Raptors, a team that seems to be based on ball movement, that impact is much more profound. Jose is the captain of the ship, without him they’re rudderless. Then there’s Bosh. Bosh has been pushing himself HARD this off season, adding over 20 pounds of muscle. This seems like a good thing, until you remember that’s not Bosh’s body type. His body was never intended to pack on too much weight, and sometimes bulk can be a hindrance. We haven’t seen how this will impact his movement; will his post moves be slower? Will his shot be the same? What about his overall speed, one of his best attributes. Will he be able to run the court the same? And what if Bosh picks up a nick or two (as has been known to happen?). Bosh won’t want to sit and watch in a contract year; he will play unless he is physically unable to. Even if that means playing worse than he should. We also can’t forget with age comes increased probability of injury. The Raptors have a few guys who are up there in years: Jose, Evans, Rasho and Hedo are all over 28 and have fairly considerable miles on their bodies. An injury to any of those would have a pretty negative impact on the club.

Then there’s the opposition. Where do the Raptors fit in the East? The top 3 are still Orlando, Cleveland, Boston (in that order until proven otherwise it says here). Chicago looked very, very good at tiems last year and should only improve this year; especially if someone can find some electrodes to bring Luol Deng back to life. Detroit brought in Charlie V and Ben Gordon, plus Chris Wilcox to address some frontcourt problems. Washington is getting back Gilbert Arenas, plus got a number of very serviceable parts in the (now very, very one sided) trade of the 5th overall pick. Miami is still Miami. KG may have said it, but if any athlete truly embodies the “Anything is possible!” statement it’s Dwayne Wade. Beasley should improve this year too, which will help Wade, since he’s basically been a lone wolf for the past few seasons. Atlanta kept things together and also should have their young guys getting better. Charlotte looked pretty good towards the end of last season and with continuity they should improve their record. The Raptors are in the mix with all those teams, plus Philly and Indiana. With only five playoff spots available after the big 3, can we say with any certainty today that the Toronto Raptors are a lock for the playoffs? Well considering the Raptors today have never played a meaningful game together, I’d say no. Can I be proven wrong? Sure. I hope I am. But a playoff run would necessitate a lot of things going right for the Raptors and a lot of things going wrong for other clubs. So in the immortal words of The Wolf, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks just yet gentlemen.

Tags: Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani, Chris Bosh, DeMar DeRozan, Hedo Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack, Jay Triano, Jose Calderon, Marco Belinelli, Rasho Nesterovic, Reggie Evans, Toronto Raptors

This entry was posted on Saturday, October 10th, 2009 at 8:28 pm and is filed under Predictions, Toronto Raptors. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.