Outside The NBA

Everyone expected this to be a crappy draft class, but everyone was wrong. Plenty of rookies have impressed in the early part of the season. Here are some of my favourites, along with some advanced stats that I hope you’re already familiar with, but might be completely meaningless given the small sample size we’re dealing with here. Apologies to Terrence Williams, Austin Daye, Taj Gibson, and a few others who may be deserving – it’s early, I’ll get to you guys eventually.

Brandon Jennings

5 games: 21.0 PTS/36, 50.2 TS%, 7.5 TRB%, 27.7 AST%, 16.3 PER.

Admit it, you didn’t think it’d happen so fast. You probably thought “yeah, the kid is talented, but he’s a year or two away from being an impact guy.” Hell, you might have even thought he was a punk after he came under a bit of fire in the media this summer. Well, now you know. Jennings has been arguably the league’s best rookie so far and deserves a ton of credit for Milwaukee’s strong start. The mainstream media has done a complete 180 on him, praising Brandon for his work ethic, the way he handled himself in Rome last season, and the maturity he’s shown on the court this season. He deserves all of this, and I think he deserves a re-evaluation of the “controversial” stuff he said to Joe Budden in the summer. Here’s what he said:

-Ramon Sessions isn’t coming back to Milwaukee, as the team has to pay Charlie V.
-Luke Ridnour will become the Bucks’ backup point guard.
-Ricky Rubio doesn’t scare him.
-Scott Skiles is tough, but there must be a reason the coach liked him.
-The Knicks should have taken him, as Duhon isn’t going to get it done.

Not so crazy now, is it? Brandon’s only error was saying that the Bucks were going to spend money on Charlie Villanueva this summer. Instead, they have Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova, and Kurt Thomas playing his minutes. Can’t really argue with this, as none of them make close to what Charlie is making and, even though he is a skilled scorer, I doubt Jennings’s team would be leading the league in defensive efficiency if he was still starting at the 4. Perhaps this rookie is able to see plays develop before they happen because he can actually see the future.

DeJuan Blair

6 games: 14.5 PTS/36, 60.3 TS%, 18.0 ORB%, 30.9 DRB%, 24.3 TRB%, 15.8 TOV%, 19.3 PER.

Everyone saw this coming, except almost every GM in the NBA. Blair is a rare breed of rebounder, especially on the offensive end, who would have surely been a lottery pick if not for the ACL surgeries (yes, plural). He’s attacking the glass in San Antonio and this, along with his ability to score efficiently around the basket, will continue to make him a stat-geek darling even if his PER ends up dropping a bit. I was screaming at the TV as team after team passed on him on draft day, and when the Spurs scooped him up it seemed almost scripted. San Antonio’s been making the rest of the league look dumb consistently for a decade. Speaking of stat-geeks, it’s long been known in their circles that rebounding is a skill that can be projected fairly accurately from college to the NBA. It’s also long been known that rebounding is a big part of winning basketball games. Still, he fell to #37. Ugh.

Tyreke Evans/Omri Casspi

Evans: 7 games: 17.6 PTS/36, 49.4 TS%, 6.6 TRB%, 19.6 AST%, 11.1 TOV%, 15.7 PER.
Casspi: 7 games: 15.5 PTS/36, 60.1 TS%, 8.9 TRB%, 2.2 BLK%, 14.2 TOV%, 17.1 PER.

Evans’s stats seem a bit crap because he struggled in his first few games, but no one sensible jumped off the bandwagon. It’s been clear from the start that he would be able to create his own shot and get to the hole in the NBA. Kings fans have to be distraught that Kevin Martin is hurt, but there’s a silver lining: Tyreke will get to play pretty much exclusively at his natural position and he’ll become the #1 scoring option (where he’s already had a 32-point effort). It’s always good to see your young guys get an opportunity to show what they can do, especially on a rebuilding team. Luckily for Kings fans, who will not see their club get a ton of wins this year (I’m trying to be nice here), they have more than one exciting young rook who should see major floor time. Casspi has proven to be an efficient scorer, a capable defender, and a major nuisance for opposing teams. He hustles, he’s physical, and he seems like a keeper (despite what Stephen Jackson says). I tried to make a trade to get him on my fantasy team yesterday, but couldn’t get it done. The reason his owner gave me? You can’t let go of a guy who’s that much fun to root for. Yep.

DeMar DeRozan

7 games: 9.2 PTS/36. 50.7 TS%. 9.2 RB%. 9.1 AST%. 3.6 BLK%. 11.0 TOV%, 11.9 PER.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The stats aren’t impressive. But we knew he was a project, right? He’s 20 years old. Here’s the impressive thing, though: he doesn’t seem like a 20 year old out there. When I think of “projects”, especially the athletic types, I think of guys who drive coaches crazy. I think of ill-advised jumpers, stupid fouls, and botched rotations, interspersed with occasional “wow” plays. That’s not DeMar. This kid is starting at the two because he doesn’t force anything, rarely makes costly mistakes, isn’t afraid of contact, and picks his spots. He’s not yet close to being the shut-down defender the Raptors hope he will become, but he hasn’t embarrassed himself on that end thus far (although he was a small part of a shameful defensive performance against the Spurs last night). Raptors fans, myself included, are comfortable with him on the court right now and excited about his potential.

Jonny Flynn

8 games: 19.0 PTS/36, 58.1 TS%, 5.9 TRB%, 21.1 AST%, 21.3 TOV%, 16.9 PER.

Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, although obviously you want the turnovers to go way down. Give the kid time, though, and that’ll take care of itself. Full disclosure: I haven’t seen enough of the Wolves yet to get a proper handle on Flynn at this level. I know from watching him in college that he’s tenacious, quick as hell, can break people down, and has elite athleticism, but I’ve only seen him in NBA action in a 40-point blowout. It’s hard for me to compare him to a guy like Brandon Jennings at this point – Flynn is playing in a modified triangle, with a rebuilding team that has no quality wings and been dealing with injuries to its two quality bigs, while Jennings has been afforded the opportunity to be a playmaker in a more traditional offense on a team that has its sights set on a playoff berth. Still, I felt Flynn was a sure thing before this draft and haven’t heard/seen anything that suggests otherwise. The fact he’s relegated Ramon Sessions to backup duty has to be a good sign.

Stephen Curry

6 games: 10.6 PTS/36, 44.5 (!) 3P%, 4.6 TRB%, 24.4 AST%, 19.9 TOV%, 10.5 PER.

Chris Paul was right. Steph can play the point. His father was one of the best pure shooters the game has ever seen and, watching Steph at Davidson, we knew he’d inherited this skill. What we didn’t know for sure, though, with the way he was forced to carry the team’s offense and deal with triple teams most nights, was that he could create for others so well. On a team full of scorers, he stands out as a guy who cares about drawing defenders and finding the open man, a guy who’s willing to distribute the ball. The Warriors are fucked right now, but everybody loves him. Even Monta Ellis has praised him, despite the fact he was spot-on when he said they couldn’t share the backcourt without getting abused on the defensive end. I’m beyond sick of Don Nelson, but I can’t stop tuning in to watch this team now that they have approximately 1000 players I love to watch.

Marcus Thornton/Darren Collison

Stats omitted because they’ve been stapled to the bench.

They’re the two best players in the NBA! Okay, perhaps that’s going a little far, but Lil Buckets and Lil Dimes can play. They don’t deserve to be buried on the bench behind Bobby and Devin Brown (despite what Devin did last night). New Orleans actually made fine picks in the draft this year and it’s frustrating as hell to watch them sit on the bench while 1s and 2s not named Chris Paul brick jumper after jumper. I thought Collison could be a huge sleeper, with his intelligence and his ability to play both ends of the floor, and was thrilled on draft night when the Hornets had found a proper backup for Paul. He can still be that guy, if Byron Scott lets it happen. Thornton, on the other hand, was a surprise to me. He put his sweet stroke on display in pre-season and deserves more opportunities now that the regular season has started. He’ll sometimes have bad shooting nights (like last night), but should we really be deprived of getting to see what he can do because the 2009-2010 versions of D. Brown, Posey, and Mo Pete want to be out there? Only if you don’t want Hornets fans to smile.

Ty Lawson

7 games: 18.3 PTS/36, 64.8 TS%, 5.9 TRB%, 21.8 AST%, 11.5 TOV%, 21.2 PER.

Another fucking point guard? Yes! And I’m not apologizing for this. We’ve got a solid group of point guards in this draft class and I’m not even mentioning Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, or Rodrigue Beaubois in this thing. Anyway, the Nugs knew that advanced stats revealed Lawson to be an absolute stud in college. Plus, we knew just by watching him that this NCAA champion is more than capable of running an offense as well as getting his own shot. His ability to get in the lane translates perfectly to today’s NBA. He’s immediately become one of the best backup point guards in the league, picking up the pace as soon as he enters games and becoming a real problem for opposing teams that have a ton of other problems to deal with when facing Denver. He’s even been used in tandem with Chauncey Billups, which makes me incredibly happy for reasons I shouldn’t have to explain. The rich got richer, here.

Chase Budinger

5 games: 22.4 PTS/36, 62.1 TS%, 8.9 TRB%, 12.9 AST%, 10.5 TOV%, 21 PER.

I didn’t think Budinger would be much of an NBA player, but when the Rockets drafted him, I kept my mouth shut until I saw him play at this level. When I did, I realized for the 947241328th time that Daryl Morey is a lot smarter than me. The 44th pick in this year’s draft is doing what Joe Alexander was supposed to do after the Bucks selected him 8th last year. Already, he’s demonstrated his ability to hit shots, make great passes, play more-than-competent defense, and, um, not at all seem like a rookie. He fits perfectly on this Rockets team that is devoid of All-Stars but full of guys who do the little things correctly. Methinks the fact that his stock dropped so dramatically over the course of his college career was actually good for him, keeping him focused on improving his fundamentals and NBA skills rather than relying on his leaping ability. This isn’t the white Gerald Green, people. I just wish the guys who do the ratings for NBA 2K10 would figure that out soon.

James Harden

6 games: 11.9 PTS/36, 43.3 TS%, 33.5 (!) AST%, 8.6 TRB%, 5.3 TOV%, 14.7 PER.

Possessing the best rookie beard I can remember and a sweet shooting stroke, Harden has fit right in with the young Thunder squad. Anyone who knows me is aware of my affinity for his team, despite the indefensible bullshit that led to its existence. He’s coming off the bench behind defensive stopper Thabo Sefolosha and, admittedly, he hasn’t put up fantastic numbers (besides those assists) at this point. I see greatness (or at least very goodness) in him, though, and he’s an absolutely perfect fit with this team. I know I wasn’t the only one who dreamed of Ricky Rubio playing alongside Kevin Durant, but with Westbrook averaging over 8 assists a game and Harden seeming like an ideal guy to knock down shots against defenses focused on his explosive teammates, it’s hard to argue against Sam Presti on this one.