The Raptors at the quarter-season mark
Ned Dishman/ Getty Images
As you may or may not recall, I actually wrote two previews for this current Raptors squad. One was a glowing, optimistic preview. The other, a pessimistic, worst-case preview. So now we’re 21 games in to the season and it looks like (true to common sense), the Raptors have landed somewhere between the two predictions. My prediction of an epic Raptors offense has come to pass (somewhat), as has my fear of an epically bad Raptors defense. The results thus far (in terms of total wins/loses) aren’t really surprising to me, nor do I think it would be to anyone who follows the NBA. Consider who the Raptors have played so far: Cleveland, Memphis, Orlando (twice), Detroit, New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio, Chicago, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix (twice), Denver, Utah, Miami, Indiana, Charlotte, Boston, Washington (twice), and Atlanta. Any right-thinking NBA fan would have the Raptors with a record of 9-12 right now. So the record of 8-13 in of itself doesn’t worry me. What worries me is the effort the Raptors have given of late, especially against Washington and Indiana.
The NBA is structured in three levels: the Haves, the Have Nots, and the I Don’t Knows. In the East, the majority of the teams fall into the I Don’t Know category while in the West it’s pretty split between the Haves and the Have Nots (thought the IDK movement is starting to build steam in the Pacific Time Zone as well). What those three categories do is essentially tell us which teams should win each game. For instance; The Haves should always win, the Have Nots should always lose (obviously reality isn’t that neat and tidy, but it usually works out).
The I Don’t Knows are the interesting characters. We don’t know if they should win or lose games at tip time, it’s equally plausible that they could do either in spectacular fashion. But one thing we do know is that the Haves are better than the IDK’s, even if an IDK can beat a Have team on occasion. Against “Have” teams (Easts Big 4, any West playoff team), the Raptors are 1 and 10. That is to be expected. Except there were a few of the 10 loses that were very close games that the Raptors were in, and competing hard right to the end. Specifically the first Phoenix game, the first Orlando game and the San Antonio game. Against Have Nots, the Raptors are 1 and 1 (the loss to Memphis). Against IDK teams, the Raptors are 6 and 2. “So what?” you say? 1-10 against good teams is still unacceptable? Well it is and it isn’t. 1-10 vs. good teams is terrible if the goal is to win an NBA Championship. But we all know the Raptors aren’t contending for the Larry O’Brien Trophy this year.
The Raptors’ goal is to make the playoffs with a somewhat decent seeding. In that context, 1-10 vs good teams doesn’t matter too much, because spots 5-8 in the Eastern Conference (the spots the Raptors are competing for) are going to an IDK team. We have to assume that Orlando/Atlanta/Boston/Cleveland are going to beat the teams like Milwaukee, Charlotte, Chicago, Indiana, Washington, Toronto and Detroit at least 7 times out of 10. No, what separates teams in the IDK category is their record against each other. These evenly-matched games count for double in the standings. They are the variable that ultimately makes the difference between the playoffs or not (for the IDK category), or a top seed or not (in the Have category).
For a topical example, let’s look at the Wizards’ and Raptors’ schedules. First let’s set some basic structure: The Have Not crew consists of New York, New Jersey, Memphis, Minnesota and Golden State. The Haves are Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, the Lakers, Dallas, Portland, San Antonio and Utah (I’d like to think these lists aren’t too contentious but let me know if you disagree). The rest of the teams fall into the I Don’t Know category. Toronto plays 30 Haves, 14 Have Nots and 38 I Don’t Knows. Washington plays 29 Haves, 14 Have Nots and 39 I Don’t Knows. Assume against the Haves and the Have nots, at the end of the day, both teams finish with records of 18-26. Sometimes they beat teams they shouldn’t, sometimes they lose to teams they shouldn’t, whatever. It’s not particularly likely that either team would finish with more than 22 wins (do you see either team beating the haves 8 times or more? Ya right.), or with less than 14 wins (I mean really, those Have Nots are TERRIBLE. Plus every underdog has his day at least once in a while).
Logically, both teams should fall within a few wins of each other in that section of their schedule in the 16-19 win range. That’s why the inter-category games are so important. The Raptors 6-2 schedule against IDK teams puts them on pace for a 28-10 record in-category. Add that to the between 16-19 wins against the Haves and the Have Nots and you have a 43+ win season. Easily good enough to make the post-season in the Eastern Conference. Compare that to the Wizards’ 4-7 record against IDK teams which puts them on pace for a 14-25 record in-category. When added to the 16-19 wins against Haves and Have Nots, that puts them on pace for a 30+ win season. An unmitigated disaster if the goal was to make the playoffs, and also a long way from the number 1 pick in the draft.
So what does that mean for the Raptors? It means as long as they continue to beat the bad teams and the I Don’t Know teams at a good rate, they can lose to the Suns as many times as they want. A loss against Phoenix shouldn’t really hurt their playoff chances. A loss against Washington does significantly more damage. Which brings me to my worry. I worry when the Raptors don’t show up with the same effort and intensity against mediocre teams as they do against good teams (sometimes). Arguably (Ed.: inarguably!), the game in Phoenix (the 101-100 loss) was the Raptors’ best game thus far this year. That same effort and intensity would turn games against the IDK teams into blowouts. But they don’t seem to bring that same energy to those games consistently. Allowing Indiana to score 112 isn’t bringing the intensity, even if the Raps won that game. Giving up 106 points at home to the Wizards isn’t going out there and working real hard either. I’d personally be happier losing to Phoenix by 19 points like the game on the 29th and giving the GREAT effort against Washington than see the Raps give everything they have, play an amazing game and come up short 101-100 to the Suns. A GREAT effort against Phoenix only gave the Raptors a chance to win the game. A great effort against Washington GUARANTEES a win. As a fan, I may say I want competitiveness, or close exciting games, but that’s bullshit. At the end of the day I want wins and playoff games.
See, here’s the thing: Every fan wants/expects consistent effort and intensity for 48 minutes. But the reality is that consistency is what separates good teams from bad. Very few teams will be totally consistent (even Cleveland/Boston are still getting there this year), and expecting a team like the Raptors or Wizards to be that consistent is realistically expecting too much. The vast majority of teams with have some good days and some bad days and that is the defining characteristic of an I Don’t Know team. (Important note: By bad day I mean taking 8 or 9 minutes off on one end of the floor or another. Anything beyond that is simply unacceptable from a professional athlete). Well, if the Raptors have 41 good efforts and 41 bad efforts in them I’d rather see the bad efforts in the games that the team is probably going to lose anyway. Obviously that’s an oversimplification, but I think you get my point. The Raptors wasting a great effort against Phoenix and shitting the bed against Washington (the first time) led to an 0-2 record. Had they reversed the efforts in those games they’d have one more win. It’s that simple. This is basketball, not figure skating. There are no style points or moral defeats. There are only wins and losses.
Besides that, psychologically there’s no shame in losing to a team that’s better than you are. If as I’m writing this, Kelly Dwyer is writing something using the same basic premise and just flat out wrote a better article than I did, I can walk away going “Wow. We were thinking the same thing! I just need to get to his level of writing.” Whereas if James was writing something using the same basic premise and did a better job than me, I’m sitting in my room rocking back and forth trying to figure out where I went wrong with my life (Ed.: Asshole. Good to see the Dwyer love, though.). NBA teams are starting to embrace the impact that psychology has in pro athletes, with some (like the Raptors) bringing in psychiatrists to talk to/help the players. Think about it in terms of your own life. When you attempt to do something against someone who is better than you and come up short (whether it’s in bowling/golf/pool/drinking contests, whatever), you aren’t going to take the loss as personally. The loss shows you the gap in talent, and how much you need to improve to try and challenge the person next time. It’s a constructive loss, no matter if you were close or not.
Contrast that to if you lose to someone inferior than you, instead of that admiration/respect for the other person, you instead get angry at yourself. After all, YOU blew the game you were supposed to win. Since everyone there KNEW you were better, but you just got unlucky, or fucked up. Well if you’re on a team, that anger can cause the disintegration of a team. That anger leads to finger pointing, and finger pointing if done inappropriately can fracture a team. (Side note: this is where vets with winning experience help). This finger pointing is what worries me. The Raptors DO have some strong veteran leadership available (I’m thinking mainly of Rasho here), but they also have a lot of veteran leadership who don’t really know how to win. I’m not convinced Turkoglu has the intestinal fortitude to play the role here he’s being asked to play. I’m not sure that Jose has the necessary abilities to play the role he is being asked to play. I’m not sure that Chris Bosh is able to properly vocalize his needs to anyone, and I KNOW Bargnani mentally isn’t there yet (just look at his numbers at home vs. on the road). The Raptors have the makeup of a fragile team, a team with a number of fault lines that could crack from the right pressure.
Ideally, I’d say just get Colangelo to fix those fault lines. But mid-season it’s hard to make serious changes to a team, so they basically are who they are (unless a GM gives away a player anyway). The best way for the Raptors to avoid melting down and to maximize their potential wins this season is to continue to bring the ruckus against the other teams fighting for the playoffs in both conferences. If the Raps want to take a night off, take it off against one of the elite teams. There are 30 games they can coast through if they want. I personally would be happy if they won 6 of those games. If they won 10 I’d be over the moon. The other 20 they can sleepwalk through. They can be lackadaisical getting back on defence, they can make bad passes, run stagnant offensive sets, not switch on defence. I don’t care. Just do me (and my heart, and most breakable objects in my basement) a favour and don’t let me see that against other I Don’t Know teams.
Sometimes, you just get beat. It happens. If the Raptors were good enough to beat every I Don’t Know team every time, they wouldn’t be an I Don’t Know team. But losing due to a lack of effort is an insult to the fans and to the players themselves, and it should be made clear through the entire organization, from Larry Tannenbaum to Marcus Banks, that it won’t be tolerated. THAT is the difference between playoff teams and non playoff teams, and eventually what allows teams to transition from good I Don’t Know teams to Have teams. After all, ultimately that is the goal: move up the IDK team hierarchy, eventually become a Have team, become a contender for the title, win a title. That’s the plan, anyway. See? The sky isn’t falling. Yet.
Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu, Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors