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I don’t have the exact date that this conversation occurred, believe me I wish I did, but sometime towards late November or early December I was talking to James about the Raptors’ struggles. I looked at the calendar, saw the teams the Raptors were playing from January 27 to February 24, and got excited. All we had to do, I kept insisting, was stay afloat through the tough stretch, and eventually we would get to the “Month of winning”. A concept most Raptors fans are fairly familiar with by now. A cursory glance at the Raptors schedule shows home games against such quality opponents as the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Kings, 76ers, Grizzlies, and Wizards. Add to that the only road games to be found were trips to Madison Square Garden, Conseco Fieldhouse and the Izod Center. You can see why I’m dubbing it the Month of Winning (MOW).

At the time I was talking to James, I figured the best-case scenario is that the Raptors would be .500 heading in to that stretch of games, and a nice 7-3 or 8-2 record would allow them to easily coast to the playoffs in the 7^th or 8^th seed where they would get spanked by whoever happened to finish 1^st or 2^nd overall. I thought I was being optimistic. Well, the Raptors showed me what optimism really is, setting up for the “MOW” by beating San Antonio, Orlando, Dallas and the Lakers. More importantly than those wins, and the wins over the Heat, Knicks and Pacers, was how the team played. In my optimistic prediction of the Raptors’ season, I spoke about swagger. About the ability to get clutch stops even if the overall defensive numbers weren’t great. I hoped those things would eventually happen, but didn’t really expect them to. Well, I sure as hell didn’t expect them to become staples of wins in January. I also didn’t expect the Leafs to crap the bed again, and the city of Toronto to rally around a rag-tag group of players playing .500 basketball, holding the 5^th seed in the East. Even I, the eternal optimist, am consistently amazed and surprised by the ways the Raptors find ways to win. Winning by gutting out efforts, playing tough physical ball down low, passing the ball around to find open looks, shutting down super-duper stars in crunch time. Guys jumping up and down on the bench, sell out crowds going so crazy that Phil Jackson himself mentions it.

All of the above has me re-evaluating my expectations for the rest of the season. In addition to the Raps’ creampuff schedule over the next stretch, the division-leading Celtics seem to be a bit adrift. Age seems to have caught up REALLY fast with Doc Rivers Big Three. Now, the only reason the Celtics are even competitive in most games is Rajon Rondo. Without him, who knows where they would be? We looked at the Raptors schedule through February (well not completely, they finish off the month playing Portland, Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Assuming they win 1 of those games, the Raptors will win 7 or 8 games that month), but what about Boston’s? Well friends, Boston gets screwed. They start off with a few winnable games, Washington (tomorrow, coming off a back to back. In Washington), Miami and New Jersey are visiting the Toronto Dominion Garden. After that, the poop hits the fan. Home to Orlando, then a 5 game 11 day road trip to New Orleans, Sacramento, the Lakers, Portland and Denver, before coming back home to face New York, Cleveland and New Jersey. Boston would probably be satisfied winning 5 or 6 games in the month of February.

Wait a minute. If Boston wins 5 or 6 games in February, and the Raptors win 7 or 8, that means, that means, by the end of the month the Raptors could be shocking the basketball world and being 2.5 games out of the division lead, and the home court advantage in the playoffs it brings. What? In fact, by Feb 21^st (the Celtics last game of the West Coast trip), the Raptors could be only a SINGLE GAME out of the division lead. WHAT?! Are the Raptors good enough to win this division? It’s starting to look possible. Unfortunately Raptors fans, it is still the Celtics title to lose and I don’t see them giving up their hold on the division crown just quite yet. The Raps still have lessons to learn, and winnable games will still slip away. No, the Raptors will almost assuredly finish the regular season in 5^th place. Which could end up having dire consequences for the Raptors.

The problem is simple, of the four teams in that group atop of the Eastern Conference there are 2 teams that match up very favourably for the Raptors. Cleveland and Orlando are both structured in such ways as to be vulnerable to the Dino’s. It would take an upset, no debating that, but both the Cavs and Magic can be beaten by the Raptors, as we’ve seen from contests thus far (well, assuming the Cavs don’t upgrade from Jamario Moon to Andre Iguodala – that’d change things slightly). Atlanta and Boston however, are quite the opposite. Cavs/Magic vs. the Raps is probably going to be a 6 or 7 game series that could go either way. You know, the type of series that’s decided in the last two to three minutes of every game. I would be shocked if it took more than 5 games for either the C’s or Hawks to dispatch the Raptors. The problem: as it stands today, one of those two teams IS going to finish fourth. Unless, that is, Boston turns their season around, Orlando starts losing games, or Atlanta goes crazy winning/goes crazy losing. Any one of those scenarios coming to pass would create a situation where the Raptors could win their first playoff series in almost a decade.

The question for Raps fans then, is which scenario do you cheer for? Well, if Atlanta slows down and drops to 5^th, the Raptors could wind up 4^th. That’s no good. Home court advantage only comes into play in game 7. The series needs to GET to game 7 before that’s a factor. I am of the belief that no true Raptors fan can cheer for Boston under any circumstances, even selfish ones. The Celtics could be playing the all-stars from Moron Mountain for all I care, still not cheering for them. So that’s out. That leaves a single scenario: Raps fans should be cheering against the Magic and for the Hawks as hard as possible. Lemme lay this scenario out for you; try it on for size.

The East finishes like so: Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, Orlando, Toronto, Miami, Charlotte, Chicago. The winner of Orlando/Toronto would go on to play the winner of Cleveland/Chicago. Or just Cleveland (ya, I’m going on a BIG limb here). That means back to back winnable series for the Raptors, avoiding the bad matchups until the Eastern Conference finals. Unlikely, incredibly unlikely. The odds are against the Raptors in each series, and I’m no mathematician but I’m pretty sure odds compound when you place them in a sequence like that. However, just because something is unlikely doesn’t mean it’s impossible. In fact, should the East finish that way, an Atlanta/Toronto eastern conference final would not be that much of a stretch, and who would have seen THAT one coming.

Unlikely, again, but not impossible. The Raptors are what they are. They aren’t an elite team (yet), but if I’m coaching a team in the East I do not want to play a team that can score like the Raps can, nor one that can win games in such a variety of games. No, these ain’t your older brothers Raptors. There are going to be ups and downs the rest of the way, but hang with them. The Raptors are a better team than they seemed in November and December and they’re probably a worse team then they’ve seemed in January. But they might not be. That’s the hope we have to hold on to. That, and the hope that Atlanta passes Orlando. Toronto hasn’t asked much of the Sports Gods, well that’s a lie, I’ll try again. Toronto hasn’t received much from the Sports Gods in the past 16 years. For some reason though, 2010 just FEELS different. In 7 Seconds Or Less, after the Suns come to Toronto to play their former General Managers new team for the first time, then assistant coach Alvin Gentry commented that “They [the Raptors] are the Chevrolet version of what we are”. Meaning the Raps were a high octane team without a high octane ride. Well right now this Chevy’s riding high. And I’m going to enjoy the view.

Mr. Sterling, could you stop booing your own team? (Noah Graham/Getty Images)

Hello readers, I’m from the future, and I have some urgent information about how your favourite teams are going to perform this year. I know that most of you are begging to learn more about the Grizzlies, the Knicks, the Warriors, the Clippers, the Bucks, and the Grizzlies, and are genuinely concerned that they might not be able to make the playoffs. WELL, TAKE HEED FAIR IDIOTS! GAZE UPON THE STARK PROGNOSTICATIONS I HAVE PROVIDED AND DESPAIR! Your favourite teams are going to SUCK and nobody will feel pity on you. They will be smashed like a child’s macrame project at the hands of Brock Lesnar.

Chris Keane/Reuters

New York Knicks

The Knicks, for the second straight season, attempted to put Mike D’Antoni’s Seven Seconds or Less (SSoL) offense, and Do Not Attempt to Contest Shots (DNACS) defense into practice. D’Antoni favourite Al Harrington is a firm believer in the philosophy; “I’ve never played a lick of defense my whole career, and you don’t have to tell me to shoot a heavily contested three early in the shot clock, I just do that regardless.” Harrington said enthusiastically, “SSoL is such a great idea, because it reduces the amount of time you have to wait before you get to shoot another three.” Mike D’Antoni was also impressed with Wilson Chandler, remarking that it was like having two Al Harringtons on the court at the same time, though he also added that Chandler needed to lessen his defensive commitment and leak out more on the break. D’Antoni’s sour demeanor and constant complaining to the refs struck a chord with the people of New York. “Watching Mike on the sidelines reminded me of when I ordered a mochaccino from Starbucks yesterday, and they forgot to froth my cream. Cranky screaming, a face like he just took a dump in his pants, wild emotional hand gestures? It’s like the guy’s stealing my routine!” A local New York woman sneered. “He’s still a fucking idiot.” She added.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Golden State Warriors

Golden State succeeded at beating their own record of playing the most minutes in one season with a lineup that doesn’t make any sense. Anthony Morrow had a recurring nightmare where he was playing center and point guard at the same time, and as a result spent an inordinate amount of time pinching himself when he was on the court. Don Nelson changed the team’s mascot to a pink elephant, and spent half of every game demanding that it return his collection of stretched out turtlenecks. Stephen Jackson finally got his wish and was traded, but was shocked to find out that he had been traded to the Albuquerue Thunderbirds for James Wright, Antoine Agudio and an autographed Yuta Tabuse jersey. Jackson reacted by driving his Cadillac Escalade into a Target, strangling a hooker, and kicking a dog in the face. His former teammates were impressed at his level of restraint. Halfway through the season, it was discovered that Stephen Curry is actually 14, and thus was unable to continue playing power forward for the Warriors.

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

Los Angeles Clippers

In a strange turn of events, the LA Clippers’ team bus drove into wormhole that transported them into a dimension where they did not suck at basketball. Baron Davis saw a strange version of himself that was able to shoot the three point shot at over a 35% clip. Parallel-universe Ricky Davis completed a legitimate triple double, and Regular Ricky Davis found out that in this other dimension, he was actually credited for his triple double attempt against the Jazz all those years ago. “Finally”, he whispered to himself as his eyes welled up. Bizarro Mike Dunleavy was wearing an excellent suit, had a full head of hair and drew up a play out of a time out that worked perfectly. Real Dunleavy did not notice at all, as he was haggling with a food vendor because chocolate Ho-Hos cost 50 cents more in this dimension. The Clippers were inspired by their alter-egos and boarded the Clipper bus back to reality. Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon were immediately crushed by a falling piano upon disembarking the vehicle.

Gary Dineen/Getty Images

Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee Bucks General Manager John Hammond completed his vision for the Bucks by trading Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut for a 1973 beige VW Van with its doors rusted shut. NBA fans and other onlookers were confused and bewildered as to whether that was actually possible, but as Larry Coon would point out, a strange and often overlooked CBA rule allows players to be traded for inanimate objects, after Donald Sterling controversially traded Tom Chambers for a shoe in 1983. Hammond justified the trade by saying “Beige VW Van is going to add a whole new dynamic to this team. I’ve personally contacted Beige VW Van’s agent, and he assures me that Beige VW Van’s engine is in perfect working order, and that the tires are all-season.” Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are currently doing backbreaking manual labour for a man named Craig in Iowa.

Memphis Grizzlies

Things started out poorly for the Memphis Grizzlies, and after Allen Iverson re-entered the lineup from injury, things immediately went from bad, to possibly the worst situation of all time. A new term was coined for an unbelievably catastrophic disaster, after a roadside cleanup crew called a 72-car pile-up a “a real Memphis Grizzly of a situation”. Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay combined for an NBA record 40 three point shots in one game, and made 4 of them. Asked to comment, Zach Randolph instead lamented that his coach did not allow him to shoot three point shots at his own basket. “It’s so open!” He remarked. Memphis becomes the first team to ever require that both of its stadium’s rims be replaced halfway through the season due to unrelenting low percentage chucking. “I’ve never seen anything like it before.” Said a local scientist Steve Butt. “The physical property of a basketball should not be able to inflict this sort of damage on steel. It’s as if someone were throwing masonry at it.” Continued Butt before rolling up his driver’s side window and doing a sweet-ass burnout. At one point during the season, Hasheem Thabeet accidentally missed the team bus to Minnesota because he was playing Wii sports. Nobody on the Grizzlies noticed until halfway through the second quarter when Allen Iverson asked where “the gigantic dark dude who brings me my water” went.

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

Pre-season predictions are a bit of a fool’s game. Whenever you go back and look at them at the end of a season, you realize the prognosticator went horribly wrong in more than one place. Always, always, always you find that there are a few injuries and trades that completely change the landscape of the league. But I’ve gone ahead and done them anyway.

Eastern Conference

1. Orlando (65-17)
Turkoglu, Rafer, Lee, and Battie for Vince, Jameer, Bass, Barnes, and Anderson? Unreal. And they made it to the finals last year. This team is ludicrously talented and can handle an injury at any position.

2. Cleveland (64-18)
Almost want to give them more than this. A fantastic team last year and they’ve replaced Ben Wallace with Shaq, Wally Szczerbiak with Parker, and Sasha Pavlovic with Moon. Each is a huge upgrade.

3. Boston (54-28)
Love Sheed/Daniels. Disappointed they gave up Powe.Can’t give them 60 because I don’t believe K.G. is what he was.

4. Washington (42-40)
Wanted to rank them higher, but how are they going to stop anybody? Plus, with this Jamison injury, it seems like they’re fucking cursed or something.

4. Atlanta (42-40)
They’re a better team than last year, but so are a lot of teams. Thus, the record drops a bit. Only way they leap up is if they get more out of Marvin Williams and Josh Smith.

6. Chicago (41-41)
Deng, Salmons and Miller for a full year? Good. Losing Ben Gordon? Bad. Ceiling is much higher but I don’t trust VDN.

6. Miami (41-41)
I feel a bit uneasy with this pick – if they just emphasize Beasley more, they should get more wins. Not confident in J.O. at the 5 spot anymore, though. Wish I was.

8. Toronto (40-42)
They’re better, mostly because Jose will be healthy but also because the bench is much stronger with Nesterovic, Jack, and Johnson. Turk will make the offense much better, but it’s not great to have another poor defender playing heavy minutes. If they hit the 50-win mark Bryan Colangelo’s talked about, Jay Triano deserves to be the first Canadian NBA Coach of the Year.

8. Philly (40-42)
One less than last year. Losing Andre Miller hurts, but Eddie Jordan’s system will mitigate some of that. If Brand’s back to 20/10, this total will be higher and my fantasy team will be amazing.

10. Detroit (38-42)
I like Kuester and can’t wait to see what this team is like on offense. Offense is only half the game, though. High on Will Bynum here, but Stuckey is Dumars’s guy.

11. Indiana (34-48)
Last year’s rookies should be very effective, but Hibbert needs to learn not to foul. They would have improved had they not significantly downgraded at each key bench spot.

11. Milwaukee (34-48)
I just can’t see Skiles’s bunch any lower than this. Realize they’ve lost Sessions, Villanueva, and Jefferson, but they also didn’t have Redd or Bogut for the majority of last season. They’ll be scrappy and they’ll beat teams they shouldn’t.

13. New York (31-51)
They don’t really have 31-win talent, but I dig D’Antoni. He got ‘em to to 32 last year, somehow, and I can’t justify a big drop with a healthy Gallinari.

14. New Jersey (26-56)
Patience, Nets fans. They’re on the right track. It’s just not enough yet, unless Terrence Williams has a ROY-type season. They’ve got the two most important positions in the game locked up, though.

15. Charlotte (24-52)
They’re really, really trying to make the playoffs, but it’s not happening. Chandler’s not who he was, Diaw’s out of shape, and Raja Bell just got hurt. Larry Brown and most of the roster will be absolutely miserable in a couple of weeks and it’ll stay like that for most of the year. Love D.J Augustin, though.

Note on the East: Yup, that’s a tie for the last spot in the playoffs, with 2 games separating 4th from 9th and 8th from 10th. As I’ve said before, the East will be interesting in April.

Western Conference

1. Lakers (63-19)
If Artest picks his spots on the offensive end like he has never done before, they could hit 70. But he’s never done that before. Bynum may have an All-Star season, but I’m a bit scared of Ron-Ron disrupting that beautiful offense. Still, I’d pick ‘em to repeat.

2. San Antonio (55-27)
Jefferson and McDyess are amazing acquisitions, but Manu’s health is the most important thing for the Spurs. Hope RJ is content with more corner 3’s and less isolations than he’s ever had in his life, ‘cause that’s what is needed here. Absolutely a title contender if everyone holds up.

3. Portland (54-28)
I dropped Denver’s record below even though I expect them to sustain their play. With Portland, they’ll improve, but it won’t show up in their record. Don’t pay attention to anything anybody’s saying about Andre Miller right now, unless you think he’s worse than Sergio Rodriguez.

4. Dallas (51-31)
Using Nobel Peace Prize logic here – they could be great or they could be awful, but I’m going to be optimistic and pencil them in for a 50+ season before it starts. They’ve got so much talent that I don’t care about bigger teams bullying them. Expect Gooden and Dampier to be exchanged for superior players before the deadline.

5. Denver (50-32)
I like Lawson and Afflalo more than I like Dahntay and Kleiza, but it’s going to be awfully tough to match last year’s win total.

5. Utah (50-32)
Boozer’s back. Weird, huh? ~32 minutes a game for him, Millsap, and Okur, I guess. You know how these guys have been for the past couple of years, right? They’ll be like that.

5. New Orleans (50-32)
Last year’s team shouldn’t have won as much as they did, with that putrid bench. That bench has been upgraded for this go-round but it’s going to be really tough to get extra wins in the West, even with another MVP-level season from Chris Paul.

8. Phoenix (42-40)
I’m counting on a good 82 games from Steve Nash, Grant Hill, and Amar’e Stoudemire landing them the 8th seed. Wait a minute, what have I done?

9. Clippers (40-42)
If it wasn’t for Dunleavy, I’d have them in the playoffs. Really solid group of players on this team, but will it perform at the standard of the sum of its parts?

10. Houston (36-46)
I’m going to watch them play as many games as possible, but the majority of these will be losses. They’ll run teams up and down the court and they’ll defend them hard. They just don’t have the scoring punch to make the playoffs in the West.

11. Oklahoma City (30-52)
I’m rooting for them 80 times a year. Absolutely love their core, but their bigs are Krstic, Collison, Etan Thomas, B.J. Mullens (he’s going to have to earn “Byron”), Serge Ibaka, and D.J. White. The big leap will happen, but we’ll have to wait a bit.

12. Minnesota (28-54)
It’s going to take a while to learn Rambis’s modified triangle, plus Kevin Love is out for the beginning of the season. Their wings suck, but they’ve got great young guys in the frontcourt and at the point guard spot. I like their future, but they’re going to lose a lot of games.

13. Memphis (26-56)
I’d put them right at the bottom if I was ranking these teams in terms of entertainment value. Could have the least assists of any team in NBA history, but there’s legitimate talent here that keeps them out of the cellar. Unfortunately.

14. Golden State (24-58)
This saddens me. This fucking saddens me. Randolph and Morrow need to be set free. There’s so much damn talent here, but it’s all such a mess and Nellie hates defense. I hope I’m wrong, but I see this year being a spectacular failure. See that? I didn’t even mention Stephen Jackson!

15. Sacramento (15-67)
Yay, Tyreke Evans! Now, back to being completely shit.

Note on the West: See the big drop-off before the 8th playoff spot? That’s the inspiration for the series I’ve started writing. Phoenix, Houston, and maybe Oklahoma City coming soon.

Wagman went through and did playoff predictions, too. You can call me a pussy (he did), but I’m not going to do that until the regular season’s over. Once you have two good teams playing against each other, it’s a different game. The differences are less to do with overall talent and much more to do with match-ups and, to some degree, coaching. When we get there, I’ll check back in. The Lakers have still got to be the favourites to win it all, but… it’s October 24th.

Terry Gilliam/AP Photo

I’ve heard a lot about how tough it is to make predictions this season. Well, here’s an important term for 2009-2010: mediocrity. Outside of the top and bottom 3 or 4 teams in each conference, pretty well everyone is stuck in it. So yes, it’s going to be a tough year to predict in some ways. But you can count me among those to say that this year the difference between good teams, great teams and shit teams will be more noticeable than ever. I was originally just going to just rank the teams without win totals. Why? Limit the damage, baby. Limit the damage. Unfortunately, I’ve been told I need to do wins/losses too. So, totals in brackets after the pick.

Eastern Conference

1) Cleveland: Lost in 6 last year, improved at almost every position. Shaq tends to have big first years with teams. Added leadership, depth and quality. (64-18)

2) Orlando: Is Vince an upgrade on Turk? Maybe. But a slight upgrade at 1 position puts them behind the Cavs who’ve loaded up specifically with the goal of beating the Magic in mind. (61-21)

3) Boston: Even if the big 3 dwindles to the Big 2 and Sheed, they still have Rondo. For this year at least, they’re still title challengers. Do yourself a favour though C’s fans, don’t check out the Celts salary info for next year. And don’t think about Ray Allen and potentially Rondo expiring. And don’t think about another year on KGs odometer. And for the love of god don’t think about what Sheed did last year in Detroit. (58-24)

4) Atlanta: Last year Josh Smith had a pretty crappy year by his standards. They’re basically the same club from last year, but captain obvious says: When one of your best players is significantly better from last season, that’s an improvement in overall team performance. (50-32)

5) Toronto: Last year everything that could go wrong for the Raps did, and Toronto still didn’t finish that far from the post season. A healthy Jose, a motivated Bosh and a deep bench should provide more wins. (49-33)

6) Chicago: Losing Gordon hurt, but that should be mitigated by the natural growth of their young players. I love Rose. I love Noah. Hell, I even love lamp. They’ll be good. (47-35)

7) Miami: Dwayne Wade. That is all (42-40)

8) Washington: Gilbert Arenas. That is all. (41-41)

9) Indiana: Take the best white guys the NCAA can produce, put them with a beast down low (Hibbert), throw in a real good point guard in T.J. and they’ll do decently well. Just not quite good enough this year. (39-43)

10) Detroit: I like the pieces, just the whole puzzle doesn’t look so good. Weak up front. Weak on defense. And their biggest problem: only 1 ball to share and nary a distributor to be found. (38-44)

11) Charlotte: I like the direction they were going in last year. And MJ being as hands off as possible is quite possibly the best thing that could ever happen to this franchise. Well, short of a new owner buying the team who actually bothers to learn the names of his players. (36-46)

12) Philly: Where letting your only point guard walk away happens. Pray for Brand’s health or else they could be even worse. (33-49)

13) New York: D’Antoni and Lee have to be worth a few wins, right? Bonus prediction: Instead of going to games, Knicks fans will be flooding confessionals around the greater New York area to try and cleanse the city of sin in hopes of the fabled LeBron showing up. One thing working in the Knicks favour: All scriptures talk about the Messiah showing up in times of chaos. So they have that going for them, which is nice. (32-50)

14) Milwuakee: Lost Charlie V. Lost Sessions. Probably going to lose Redd within a few months. So yeah. (28-54)

15) New Jersey: Sure they’re building something. But this year will not be pretty. (24-58)

Playoffs

First round: Cleveland vs. Washington, Orlando vs. Miami, Boston vs. Chicago, Atlanta vs. Toronto.
Well, at least there might be 2 entertaining first round series’. Cleveland and Orlando romp; Chicago actually manages to upset the C’s who will be playing shorthanded due to injury, and Toronto takes Atlanta in 6 after exposing the Hawks bench.

Second round: Cleveland vs. Toronto, Orlando vs. Chicago.
Let’s all congratulate Toronto and Chicago on their wonderful seasons.

East Final: Cleveland vs. Orlando.
This is where the additions the Cavs made really pay off, Cavs win it in 6.

Western Conference

1) Los Angeles Lakers: The best until proven otherwise. Sure, they might have downgraded from Ariza to Artest, but if any team could afford such a risky move, it’s the Lake Show. (63-19)

2) San Antonio: Love everything they did this offseason. Love Manu getting rest. Love Timmy getting rest. Love RJ. Love Blair. (62-20)

3) Denver: Uhhh didn’t you people read this? (60-22)

4) Portland: This year they have the natural progression of their young players and added a guy who will probably be the best backup PG in the league. Only worry: does Aldridge lose some motivation after that big contract? (58-24)

5) Utah: Come on. It’s Utah. As the great Swirsky’d say, book it. (53-29)

6) Phoenix: I have no rhyme, reason or rationale behind this pick beyond the fact that this is Nash’s last realistic shot at a playoff run, Amar’e is back healthy and they’re running again. Do they have enough in the tank for one more run in the playoffs? I hope so for Nash’s sake. (51-31)

7) New Orleans: Hey! Look! It’s the Chris Paul’s! On a serious note: play Mo Pete. Just do it. I won’t be asking again. (50-32)

8) Los Angeles Clippers: Another team whose offseason I’m in love with. And hey, who wouldn’t like to see the hyper talented young Clippers vs. the defending champion elder statesmen Lakers? If I didn’t set up a Denver/Phoenix first round orgasm (for me or anyone who likes offensive basketball that is), it’d be the best first round matchup possible. Or at least one of the more intriguing. (48-34)

9) Dallas: Uh-oh! I have Dallas missing the playoffs! How?! I dunno. Just something about the makeup of this Mavs team rubs me the wrong way. I think in some years they’d have a real good team, just in this year’s Western conference they aren’t built to compete with the best. Aren’t enough bad teams this year to lose to the good ones and still be able to make the playoffs. (47-35)

10) Oklahoma City: They just need one more year of seasoning before they take that next step. Like a stew. Just let‘em simmer for a bit. (42-40)

11) Houston: Can a team compete with $40 million in salary on the shelf due to injuries? Unfortunately, probably not. I’m sure they’ll be far more competitive than they should be; I just see this team losing a lot of close games to good teams. (41-41)

12) Golden State: Now it looks like they’re going to have to trade Stephen Jackson by the deadline. As if they didn’t have enough problems. Yeesh. My prediction: Fan anger. And lots of it. (38-44)

13) Minnesota: Well, at least they have Jefferson and Love. (30-52)

14) Memphis: YOU ALREADY HAD MARC GASOL! WHY DID YOU DRAFT A BUST OF A BIG MAN AND TRADE FOR ZACH RANDOLPH! ARE YOU INSANE?!?!?! YOU’RE GOING TO KILL HIS CAREER!!! Sorry. Had to get that off my chest. Where were we? (27-55)

15) Sacramento: Well, at least they’ll sell a few jerseys to Jewish basketball fans, like me. I’ll be watching for Casspi, but I can’t imagine too many people will watch for any reason. Which is too bad. Lots of teams are going to play great games against these guys. My prediction: A lot of games where fans go “How the hell did the Kings give up 130 points to the fucking ________?!” (17-65)

Playoffs

First round: Lakers vs. Clippers, San Antonio vs. New Orleans, Denver vs. Phoenix, Portland vs. Utah.
Clippers fight hard, but just don’t have the talent to hang with the Lakers over 7. Lakers in 5. San Antonio embarrasses New Orleans. Denver and Phoenix have the series of the playoffs, averaging 230+ points a game combined throughout the series, with Denver taking it in 6 games. And Portland and Utah have a battle, but ultimately the Blazers are too talented. Top 4 seeds all advance.

Second round: Lakers vs. Portland, San Antonio vs. Denver.
Lakers again just over talent Portland. Lakers in 6. San Antonio vs Denver, though, is tough. Denver has weapons at all positions and I like Denver’s bench better. It’ll be close but my gut says Nuggets in 7.

West Finals: Lakers vs. Denver.
Deja vu all over again? This year, Denver comes in more prepared than they were last year. They’ll have real inbounds plays and everything! JR and Melo will both play better (pretty impressive considering what they did last year). Not to mention the Artest Factor: Eventually Ron-Ron will do something stupid at a bad time and Denver will capitalize. All of which leads to Nuggets in 7.

NBA Finals

Cleveland vs Denver.
I’ma stick with LeBron here. He’s due. Cavs in 6.

Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images.

Barring the landscape changing with significant trades or injuries, the top 7 in the West this season is pretty much set with the Lakers, Spurs, Blazers, Nuggets, Mavericks, Jazz, and Hornets. A few interesting teams will be fighting for the chance to lose for the Lakers and I’m going to discuss them. First up, the Los Angeles Clippers.

I’m terrified to make a prediction about the L.A. Clippers. They’re a mystery. On paper they’re the eighth-best team in the conference, but I’m not the least bit confident saying that they’ll make the playoffs. In fact, if you were to tell me that you thought they would, I’d pester you to make a bet with me about it, even if it’s late-November and they’re becoming a trendy pick due to their soft early-season schedule.

There’s enough talent here for this team to win a lot of games and be one of the more interesting teams in the league to watch. Their three best players should be the sometimes-electrifying, bearded point guard Baron Davis; the freakishly talented, athletic power forward Blake Griffin; and the sophomore stud Eric Gordon. Davis, as a Warrior, did things like this which made him a hero to a long-suffering fanbase. Griffin, who still isn’t old enough to hit the clubs after games unless he’s playing the Raptors, can already put “meanest pre-season dunk in NBA history” on his resume. Gordon has one of the sweetest-looking jump shots in the league, right up there with Ray Allen and Anthony Morrow, and his jumper is far from his only weapon. Unlike last season, there’s a decent supporting cast here too. Still, I’m worried about them, mostly because of their coach.

Sports memorabilia enthusiast Bill Simmons called Mike Dunleavy a big dummy last season. If I hadn’t actually watched the Clippers last year, I might point out that Dunleavy had to deal with a coach’s nightmare: chemistry-killer Zach Randolph, the out-of-shape version of Baron Davis, and significant injuries to almost all of his key players. Seeing as I watched more Clippers games last season than any reasonable person should, though, I know better than to let him off the hook. This team underachieved last season even with all those things taken into consideration, and I’m not just talking about their atrocious record (19-63). They were the least entertaining team in the league, even worse than the fucking Kings. Save for Eric Gordon’s jump shot and a morbid interest in seeing how truly indifferent professional basketball players can look whilst playing the sport they’re paid millions of dollars to play, I could offer no compelling reasons to tune into a Clippers game last season. As Simmons pointed out, you’d think the coach would relinquish some control and have his team play uptempo, with Baron Davis running the show. You’d think, once injuries hit, that he’d be able to get at least some effort and hustle out of the bench guys who rarely get the opportunity play big minutes. Didn’t happen. Instead, Clippers fans were treated to the kind of boring, uninspired basketball that would fool a person subjected to it into believing that idiotic “college basketball is more entertaining” bullshit. The Clippers were going to be bad last season, but it didn’t have to be no fun.

Now, some things have changed. This roster is deeper, seemingly healthy, and they now have a guy who’s such a lock to win rookie of the year that betting types are saying to stay away because the odds are so low it isn’t worth your time. With Beardo in shape and Zach Randolph banished to Memphis on a team that might manage to play even less aesthetically-pleasing ball than last year’s Clips, things could drastically improve. As long as Dunleavy doesn’t fuck it up. One bad sign already: he’s talked about bringing Blake Griffin off the bench. This is obviously insane.

When you draft a guy as talented as Blake Griffin, you throw him right in there. Let him go up against the best. Have him turn the ball over, have him get picked on a bit on the defensive end, whatever. He’s such a beast of a scorer that it doesn’t matter. He needs touches, lots of them. He needs to learn what works and doesn’t work in the NBA. It won’t take long for him. For the short-term and long-term benefit of this franchise, making him a featured part of their starting unit is the right thing to do. Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman both know that Griffin is the future of this team. Baron Davis knows that if Griffin has a great season, he’ll look good too. The single biggest mistake Dunleavy could make this year is to make this kid and the crazy-efficient Eric Gordon (.593 TS%!) into role-players. Give ‘em the damn ball.

Aside from the Griffin/Gordon thing and a general fear of over-coaching, there’s one more thing I’m worried about in Clipperland: the small forward position. Al Thornton started there and played 37.4 minutes a game last season, but there’s no way in hell this should happen again. You know the ridiculously overblown Kevin Durant/Wayne Winston thing? Here’s all you need to know: KD is a mind-blowingly good scorer, but, at 21 years of age, he is pretty bad at almost everything else. This manifests in a negative score in a stat called adjusted +/-, meaning his team and individual teammates have been better when he’s on the bench. The same was true about Carmelo Anthony and Al Jefferson in their first few years, and it’s in no way a cause for concern because, again, the kid is 21 years old and scores more effortlessly than anybody else in the league. Anyway, Al Thornton also has a terrible adjusted +/-. He lacks superhuman scoring ability, however. His TS% of .503 in his first two years in the league is crap. He’s not particularly good at anything besides accumulating field goal attempts and, for the Clippers to be good next season, they need that bit to change. With their talent, there is no reason for Thornton to take a lot of shots. What they need at the 3 is someone who will play solid defense and hit open jump shots off of drive-and-kicks from Davis and passes out of the post from Griffin. Luckily, this is exactly what free agent acquisition Rasual Butler can do. Let’s hope the coach realizes this and puts him on the floor.

Unfortunately, I have no confidence in this happening because I don’t trust Mike Dunleavy. I can see the Clippers stumbling out of the gate, even against sub-par competition in November. I can see Dunleavy losing the team again and Bill Simmons linking back to this article. I can see Baron Davis and Eric Gordon being stifled. Hell, I can almost even see Tyreke Evans winning Rookie of the Year as I yell at the TV that Griffin should have been given the damn ball more. I don’t want any of this. I want a Clippers team that’s fun. I want Baron to look like this instead of this, Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon to make their fantasy owners happy, and Al Thornton to play a role that he’s suited for. If Dunleavy does this right and the team stays healthy, not only will these guys be watchable, they have a damn good chance of getting that 8th spot. This is one of the most intriguing teams in the NBA; for everyone’s sake, let’s hope the on-court product bears no resemblance to last year’s loathsome mess.

Remember how crazy the West was 2-through-9 last year? We knew no one would catch the Lakers, and we knew you’d have to win close to 50 games to make the playoffs, but we had no idea how everything would shake out in the end. There was one great team in the conference, a bunch of very good teams, and then a whole bunch of crap. No Western team won between 29 (Golden State) and 46 (Phoenix) games.

Well, the East is even crazier than that this year, but the action is all in the middle. I see three teams that should easily win more than 46 games as presently constructed and only two that might finish with fewer than 29. That’s almost what happened last season, but what’s even more interesting is that, if forced to predict team records this season, I’d argue that there are ten Eastern teams that could hover around the 40-42 win mark.

Here’s a look at the big clusterfuck:

Atlanta Hawks

2008-2009: 47-35. 10th in offense. 11th in defense.

You might wonder why these guys are on the list, as they had home court advantage in the playoffs last season. They’re also the only team on this list that was above-average on both ends of the court last season. Plus, they’ve got continuity – in re-signing Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, and Marvin Williams, they’ve kept their core intact. Adding Joe Smith and Jeff Teague should improve their bench, too. Still, I see a couple of reasons why they could slip back in the standings. First, there’s the Jamal Crawford signing. At first glance, this seems like a positive move. He is, if only slightly, a better player statistically than Filp Murray, the man he is replacing. However, he is allergic to defense. Murray isn’t great at that end of the court either, but I’d rather have him out there than Jamal. Additionally, Murray was only out there for 24 minutes a night, which is what he’s been used to as a sparkplug scorer off the bench. Crawford has been accustomed to a more prominent role and has received significantly more minutes than that since 2003-2004, which leads me to question how this will work out. There are two potential problem scenarios here – having a bad defender on the court for too long, or having an unhappy Crawford cause problems in the locker room. In addition to all this, I see a second challenge in the way of Atlanta getting back to 47 wins, one that faces all of the teams I will cover here: other teams have improved. Atlanta went 26-7 against the other nine teams on this list last season and I believe this will be a significantly more difficult thing to do this time around. Even if they are still the best of the group, there is a smaller gulf between the Hawks and the teams who finished beneath them in the standings last year, one that might not make up for the fact that they are clearly a couple of notches away from being an elite team. Unless their young talent and/or coach Mike Woodson provides the club with improvement from within, expect a step back.

Miami Heat

2008-2009: 43-39. 20th in offense. 11th in defense.

If Jermaine O’Neal plays like he did in the first half of the decade for Indiana, and he manages to stay on the court, this team can improve. Reading the reports in Miami might make you seem optimistic about this, but I’m here to remind you that this is the same exact stuff we heard in Toronto last year. I truly hope Jermaine will be more than a half-decent jump-shooter and shot-blocker this season, but I remain very, very skeptical. Even if Jermaine O’Neal remains average, though, shouldn’t Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley improve enough to add some wins? I’m not sure. Chalmers is a nice piece but I don’t see him being much of a game-changer this season. Beasley is more interesting – this is an extremely talented kid that deserves a bigger role than he had last season. If they park him on the block and give him the ball, he can score at will. With more minutes and more touches this season, he could help the Heat win more games. I’m worried about him, though, because Erik Spoelstra is going to try to play him at the 3. This is not his position. He’s going to struggle to guard 3s and he’s going to have a tougher time scoring. If they don’t get more offense out of Beasley and O’Neal, I think they could drop in the standings even if Wade turns in another MVP-level season – the drop-off on the defensive end from Marion/Moon to Beasley/James Jones/Q-Rich is huge.

Philadelphia 76ers

2008-2009: 41-41. 19th in offense. 13th in defense.

This team has some good players and a good coach, but there’s no way to know if they’re going to put it together, or put it together in time to really make a mark. They struggled integrating Elton Brand last year – we knew it would take some time to integrate a traditional post player into their athletic, fast-paced, turnover-causing attack, but didn’t think it’d be so difficult that everyone seemed relieved when the team’s best player was sidelined with an injury. Since last season, they’ve lost their starting point guard in Andre Miller and haven’t done much about it. Sure, he was lazy at times, but he was solid and, no, Jrue Holiday is not a replacement. This season we’ll see some improvement from Philly’s young guys, we’ll see a lot of Andre Iguodala handling the ball, and we’ll (hopefully) see a much more effective Elton Brand than we saw for bits of the 2008-2009 regular season. With the time it’ll take for this team to properly learn Eddie Jordan’s offense, though, and its still-obvious lack of shooters (even with Jason Kapono on the roster), I find it difficult to imagine them separating themselves from the pack in the East.

Chicago Bulls

2008-2009: 41-41. 14th in offense. 18th in defense.

Having John Salmons and Brad Miller around for the full season will help. So will having Luol Deng back. It even seems like Taj Gibson can contribute. So, why am I not projecting a big leap? Well, for one, they lost Ben Gordon. Complain all you want about his shot selection and his defense, but he is a very, very good player who the Bulls haven’t replaced. Before you scoff at the contested jumpers he puts up, realize he is an incredibly efficient scorer – his TS% of 57.2 is absolutely an elite number for a shooting guard, on par with that of Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade. I’m not going to argue that he is a great defender, but Scott Skiles was able to effectively mask his defensive deficiencies for years. Please don’t think of Jannero Pargo as an adequate replacement. Still, with improvement from Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah, this team might have the highest ceiling of any on this list. To finish at the top would require a fantastic coaching effort, though, and with Vinny Del Negro at the helm I am definitely not counting on it.

Detroit Pistons

2008-2009: 39-43. 21st in offense. 16th in defense.

Do not count on the Pistons finishing 21st in offensive efficiency next season. With Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Wilcox joining Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, Will Bynum, and Jason Maxiell, new coach John Kuester has plenty of scoring options to work with. Kuester is the man who re-worked the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense last season, when they jumped from the league’s 19th-best offensive team to its 4th-best. Even though they’ve been absolutely great in previous years, Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace hurt the Pistons on both ends of the floor last year. The long jump shots and sub-par defense we saw from these two last season is the reason we have the term “addition by subtraction”. Detroit fans should be expect a much more functional locker room than the one Michael Curry dealt with last season, plus potentially one of the league’s top offenses. This is all good stuff. There’s a reason I’m not expecting an enormous jump in the standings, though: defense. Charlie V. and Ben Gordon will be huge boosts on the offensive end of the floor, but these guys will never be mistaken for defensive stoppers. Same with Wilcox. They’ve brought Ben Wallace back, but at this point in his career I’d argue that Kwame Brown is a more useful defensive player. I would be very impressed if Kuester managed to keep this club at around the league average next season, that’s what it would take in order to move into the upper echelon of the conference, even if these Pistons are up there with Portland in terms of offensive potency.

Indiana Pacers

2008-2009: 38-44. 17th in offense. 19th in defense.

I’m not going to tell you that the Pacers are more talented this year. They’re not – swapping Marquis Daniels, Rasho Nesterovic, and Jarrett Jack for Dahntay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, and Earl Watson shouldn’t get any Pacers fan excited. Here’s the thing, though: these downgrades don’t prevent Indiana from winning a few more games than last year. Brandon Rush had a killer end of the season, Roy Hibbert was already a very effective center in his rookie campaign, and T.J. Ford is better than what he showed last season. I’d bet on all of them being more consistent this season. You have to hope that T.J. can stay healthy and Hibbert will cut down on the fouls, but the potential is there for 3/5ths of the Pacers starting unit (at least until Mike Dunleavy returns) to show considerable improvement. In addition to this, Danny Granger will continue the ascent to stardom that got him an All-Star berth and the Most Improved Player award in 2008-2009. I’m not fond of the Pacers’ overall plan or long-term outlook, but I won’t be at all surprised if they’re in the thick of the playoff hunt next season. I’d encourage you to pay attention to this team even if they’re not, though, as Jim O’Brien’s club played at the 3rd-fastest pace of any team last season and were a ton of fun to watch.

Charlotte Bobcats

2008-2009: 35-47. 27th in offense. 7th in defense.

The Bobcats wanted that 8th seed last year more than perhaps any franchise I’ve ever seen. Eschewing the bottom-out-and-get-draft-picks plan, coach Larry Brown pressured management into acquiring veterans Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Juwan Howard in the hopes of having the Bobcats’ most successful season yet. To his credit, he technically did that, as the Bobcats had previously never eclipsed the 33-win mark. Brown managed to impart his defensive wisdom on the young and old on the roster, making Charlotte one of the league’s best defensive teams by the end of the season. While I think none of this was/is in the best interest of the team’s future, I expect the Bobcats will make another charge at a low playoff seed in 2009-2010. This time, the vast majority of the key players are already used to Brown’s coaching style and this could translate into a few more wins. It’s a shame they took a step down by trading the solid Emeka Okafor for the chronically-injured Tyson Chandler, but they gained some ground by adding some much-needed wing scoring in Flip Murray and Gerald Henderson. If their defense sustains and they make some strides on the offensive end (a good start would be increasing D.J. Augustin’s minutes), then they’ll be in the mix.

Milwaukee Bucks

2008-2009: 34-48. 23rd in offense. 11th in defense.

You’ve got to love Scott Skiles, at least for the first few years he coaches a team. Even though they were overmatched some nights last season, the Bucks always competed. Even with guys like Luke Ridnour and Charlie Villanueva playing major minutes, the Bucks maintained an above-average defense and avoided toiling in the league’s cellar. Now, though, after losing three of their best players in Villanueva, Ramon Sessions and Richard Jefferson, can they be better? I say yes. The most impressive part about what Skiles accomplished last year in Milwaukee was the fact that he did it with Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut missing more than half of the season. With these guys coming back, expect a big jump on offense. And even though the Bucks failed to make any headline-grabbing news this summer, they did add some pieces to try to make up for what they gave away. Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, and Carlos Delfino can contribute right away and they hope to get contributions from Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Jennings, Jodie Meeks, and Roko Ukic as well. All this, plus the presence of the defensive-minded, brilliantly-named Luc Richard Mbah A Moute! I must say, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the Bucks.

Toronto Raptors

2008-2009: 33-49. 22nd in offense. 22nd in defense.

Kelly Dwyer was right when he said last year’s version of Jose Calderon was only at full strength for about a third of his 68 appearances. This is the single biggest reason why I expect the Raptors to make a jump from their terrible record last season. As a Raptors fan, it pained me to watch Jose last year. This guy who couldn’t move laterally, couldn’t turn the corner on the pick and roll, and couldn’t get the proper lift on his three-point shots was not the same guy I had seen running the point in TO the year before. The guy I had seen before was a danger to shoot at all times, ran the offense perfectly, knew when to attack, and made his teammates much better. Sure, he wasn’t an all-world defender, but he wasn’t a liability on that end, either. This All-Star-worthy version of Calderon is the man who I expect to be running the team this year, and this is why I project them to jump into the playoff picture. In Jarrett Jack, Rasho Nesterovic, Amir Johnson, and Antoine Wright, the Raptors have a much-improved bench and the addition of Hedo Turkoglu into the starting lineup alongside Chris Bosh, Calderon, and Andrea Bargnani could give Toronto one of the most potent offenses in the league. Hence, there is optimism in Toronto. Don’t believe the 50-win nonsense, though – this team is still too weak defensively and at the 2-guard spot to approach that number. That is, of course, unless Bargnani drinks some magical defense-and-rebounding juice and Jay Triano does a Stan Van Gundy-esque job of getting his weak defenders to play intelligent team D.

Washington Wizards

2008-2009: 19-63. 26th in offense. 29th in defense.

I’m sure you know that this is a completely different team to the Wizards of last year. With a healthy Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood, last year wouldn’t have been the nightmare that it was. Add Randy Foye and Mike Miller to the lineup, plus the coaching of Flip Saunders, and you have a team that will likely make a bigger jump than any other in 2009-2010. With a starting 5 of Arenas, Foye/Miller, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Brendan Haywood, opposing defenses are in for long nights against the Wiz. The problem, of course, is that opposing offenses may be in for easy nights. As great as this Wizards team looks offensively, with the aforementioned top six plus Fabricio Oberto, DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche, they look bad defensively. I love Flip, but he is more of an offensive guru and I doubt there’s a coach in this league that could make this bunch into a decent defensive group. If he does, they’re better than most teams here. If he doesn’t, as I expect, well… What do you get if you’re league-best on one end and league-worst on the other? Another middle-of-the-pack club.

What does this all mean? Well, all of the above teams are flawed. Flawed enough that they won’t approach the win totals of Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston if those teams stay relatively healthy. It also means they all have talent, though, and they’re all capable of beating better Western Conference teams on a random night in February. We know that, with trades and injuries, things will change for these teams and how they rank in comparison to each other as the season goes along. When we near the end of the season, though, I’m sure it’ll be a right mess trying to figure out which teams will make it into the playoffs and which of those will be lucky enough to get the 4th and 5th seeds and avoid facing one of the aforementioned juggernauts in the first round. Sure, the vast majority of these teams won’t play a game in May or June, but they will provide us with some pretty damn good basketball during the regular season. For a guy will be flipping from game to game on League Pass every night starting in two and a half weeks, this is something to be excited about.

Ah yes a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, but I figured I’d get a head start. Optimism is running wild in Toronto, but there are a few pitfalls that Raptors Nation is overlooking.

First, while Jay Triano is a highly respected international coach, he is a rookie NBA head coach. The NBA game and the European game are very different (see: United States Men’s basketball teams in 2002 and 2004). Jay has never led a pro training camp. He’s never developed the battle plan for an NBA season. He’s never managed the ego and minutes of 15 grown whiny, selfish babies for an entire season. He’s never really dealt with media criticism. He also has a key new face as an assistant coach. Marc Iavaroni was a highly, highly respected defensive-minded assistant coach with Phoenix. Then he bombed out as a head coach. How will he react to what effectively is a demotion? He’s now behind a maturing head coach. Again. This is the same place his career was 7 years ago when D’Antoni was hired in Phoenix. Will he demand the same respect in the room that he had? The other difficulty Jay has is implementing a system. In Toronto it’s a blank slate with so many new players. The blank slate can work out in either really good or really bad ways; totally depending on how it is used by the coach, and how it is accepted by the players. Will Jay, a rookie coach, be able to capture a team made up of some fairly veteran players? Will he and Iavaroni be able to come up with a defensive scheme that can hide Hedo Turkoglu completely? That will help out Jose Calderon? Will he be able to teach Demar DeRozan to adapt to the NBA game quick enough to be a presence on the floor?

These are just some of the problems the Raptors face. They’ve got a rookie at the 2, a defensively-challenged player at the 3, and a question mark at the 5. Bargnani developed nicely towards the end of last year, but this summer with the Italian team his progress seemed to stagnate. He isn’t good defensively (although he was showing improvement last season), and will be asked to carry a large load this year without Jermaine O’Neal to hide behind. He should benefit from playing one position all year, but will the team benefit out of it? Hedo Turkoglu, like Bargs, is a good offensive player. No-one doubts that. With Orlando last year he hit some monster shots, and generally was one of Orlando’s best players. That’s nothing to sneeze at. That said, defensive problems can be masked when you have Dwight Howard behind you. Offensive problems can be hidden much the same way. Turkoglu is 30 and isn’t exactly an ‘athlete’ by NBA standards. He had five dunks last year. He came from a team with one all world player, 1 all star, and a point guard who embarrassed Jose Calderon when the two clubs met up two years ago. As for DeRozan, yes he had a good final four last year. But look at his numbers from the whole season. Sure there was improvement, but he didn’t exactly blow people out of the water for the first half of the year. In fact, he didn’t do a lot of anything for the first 2-3 months of the season. The adjustment from college to the NBA is a much tougher transition than the transition from high school to college (especially considering that jump for him was from Compton High to USC, or a trip of about 22 minutes by car). How is he going to handle being on his own? How is he going to handle the responsibilities of being a man both on and off the court? How is he going to handle being asked to defend the Wades and Kobes of the world? Is too much being put on the young man’s plate at once? He’s shown himself to have a good attitude and seems to have all the tools, but asking a 20-year-old to put everything together for his first NBA game, or even season, is a bit much. He is very much a raw talent still.

The bench appears to be a source of strength for the Raptors, but looks can be deceiving. Jarrett Jack deserves minutes. Marco Belinelli and Amir Johnson need minutes to improve, as they are young and talented. Rasho Nesterovic and Reggie Evans were both good pickups for depth, but Rasho is getting up there in years. And while Reggie Evans gives 110% every time he’s on the floor, he just isn’t that skilled a ball player. Let’s take a look at last year’s stats – His rebounding rate is an outstanding 19.0% (meaning he grabs 19% of the available rebounds when he’s on the floor), but he has a turnover rate of 21.3% and a TS% of 51.4%, both of which are absolutely horrible for a big man. The man had a PER of only 10.4 and, considering the weight PER gives to rebounds, that is a red flag. You don’t need advanced statistics to understand Reggie’s limitations, though. Watch him play for just a few minutes and you will see a guy who stands out for his aggressive play, but is a liability on both offense and defense. He misses easy put-backs, fouls unnecessarily, and tries to do things he can’t do. I love the effort he brings and hope it’s contagious, but he can’t really be on the floor for longer than 10-12 minutes a game.

Sure the bench also has Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Quincy Douby, but realistically if the Raptors are counting on them for anything more than mop up duty, we’re all in a heap of trouble. The question facing Jay is how do you get the young guys minutes, while allowing the vets to play an important role (something all successful teams need) and keep everyone happy? Can you play Evans minutes that cripple the offense, even if he earns them through hard practices? What if Belinelli proves that Don Nelson was right to bury him on the bench in Golden State? Quincy Douby showed promise in summer league, but that’s meaningless. Amir Johnson has been in the league 4 years, and still hasn’t come close to this massive potential he is sitting on. The kid is loaded with talent, but it’s been 4 years and he hasn’t been able to put it together. After learning from Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Antonio McDyess, maybe the question shouldn’t be WHEN he is going to put it together, but rather WHY he hasn’t thus far. If he doesn’t get consistent (and stop fouling so much) soon, suddenly the bench is counting on the offensively challenged Evans, the elder statesman of Rasho, and the enigma of Patrick O’Bryant. Eep.

Additionally, if Belinelli, DeRozan, and Wright all prove to be unable to start at the 2 guard, suddenly the Raptors may be facing a situation where backup PG Jarrett Jack needs to do so. He proved to be capable at the 2 last season in Indiana, and there are advantages to having two floor generals on the court at once, but this is not ideal in all situations. Against bigger 2s, Jack is overmatched. His good defensive instincts can’t compensate for the fact that he’s only 6’3 and 200 pounds.

Moreover, in the NBA, all good teams have a go-to guy. I’m talking about guys who can carry a team to a win when everyone else is having an off night. Granted the Raptors have Bosh but, and I say this as both a Bosh and Raptors fan, how many times in the past 4 years has Bosh lifted the Raptors on his shoulders and carried the club to a win? What about Jose or Bargs? How many times did Hedo lift Orlando to wins? The Raptors just don’t have ‘that’ guy who can create his own shot and score at will. It’s been a hole since Carter left and it continues to be a hole today.

Health is also an issue. We saw what a hampered Jose meant to the Raptors in the wins/loss column, even though his individual stats were still pretty good. I know Jose took the summer off and is in perfect health now, but what if Jose misses time again? Or picks up a lingering injury? Sure that can be said of most teams starting point guards, but on the Raptors, a team that seems to be based on ball movement, that impact is much more profound. Jose is the captain of the ship, without him they’re rudderless. Then there’s Bosh. Bosh has been pushing himself HARD this off season, adding over 20 pounds of muscle. This seems like a good thing, until you remember that’s not Bosh’s body type. His body was never intended to pack on too much weight, and sometimes bulk can be a hindrance. We haven’t seen how this will impact his movement; will his post moves be slower? Will his shot be the same? What about his overall speed, one of his best attributes. Will he be able to run the court the same? And what if Bosh picks up a nick or two (as has been known to happen?). Bosh won’t want to sit and watch in a contract year; he will play unless he is physically unable to. Even if that means playing worse than he should. We also can’t forget with age comes increased probability of injury. The Raptors have a few guys who are up there in years: Jose, Evans, Rasho and Hedo are all over 28 and have fairly considerable miles on their bodies. An injury to any of those would have a pretty negative impact on the club.

Then there’s the opposition. Where do the Raptors fit in the East? The top 3 are still Orlando, Cleveland, Boston (in that order until proven otherwise it says here). Chicago looked very, very good at tiems last year and should only improve this year; especially if someone can find some electrodes to bring Luol Deng back to life. Detroit brought in Charlie V and Ben Gordon, plus Chris Wilcox to address some frontcourt problems. Washington is getting back Gilbert Arenas, plus got a number of very serviceable parts in the (now very, very one sided) trade of the 5th overall pick. Miami is still Miami. KG may have said it, but if any athlete truly embodies the “Anything is possible!” statement it’s Dwayne Wade. Beasley should improve this year too, which will help Wade, since he’s basically been a lone wolf for the past few seasons. Atlanta kept things together and also should have their young guys getting better. Charlotte looked pretty good towards the end of last season and with continuity they should improve their record. The Raptors are in the mix with all those teams, plus Philly and Indiana. With only five playoff spots available after the big 3, can we say with any certainty today that the Toronto Raptors are a lock for the playoffs? Well considering the Raptors today have never played a meaningful game together, I’d say no. Can I be proven wrong? Sure. I hope I am. But a playoff run would necessitate a lot of things going right for the Raptors and a lot of things going wrong for other clubs. So in the immortal words of The Wolf, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks just yet gentlemen.

Ah yes, a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, so I’m going to embrace the optimism. To those who know me, this is no surprise; optimism is practically my middle name. But this year just FEELS different for some reason. The Raptors have almost completely remade their team. With a new coach, new philosophy, new feel overall.

I firmly believe confidence is the most underrated intangible in sports. When teams get on a roll, each win seems to build on the last. That confidence allows for clarity in the last seconds of a chaotic game. It allows for proper plays to be run and shots to be taken properly, not rushed. Panic is the enemy of any coach. One of the biggest problems in the past for the Raptors was a lack of confidence. Of swagger. At the end of close games, particularly last year, you could feel the anxiety on the bench. Not a good look for a winner. So, why should this year be any different? Well, the Raps have a few things to build confidence around.

Firstly there’s Jay Triano. I’m an unabashed Smitch fan. I loved the intensity he brought to every game, to every play. I love how he expected the best out of every player in uniform and anything less would get your ass parked on the bench. That said, he wasn’t the greatest X’s and O’s guy. The lack of a proper plan on both offense and defense lead directly to many of the losses we encountered last year. Granted Smitch was gone by December, but unfortunately for Jay, it’s tough to implement a new philosophy mid-season. There just isn’t the practice time to change bad habits. This year, Jay is working with a blank slate. He has a defensive wizard to help him out (Iavaroni), and the confidence of being entrusted with helping prep the future Dream Teamers. Jay’s learned from the best, from Coach K to Jim Boeheim and Mike D’Antoni. Now, with a full training camp, he gets to pass everything he’s learned on to the Raptors, and frankly I’m excited to see what the guy can do. He’s definitely much more of a players’ coach, he’s good with the X’s and O’s and he brings a calmness to the bench. No matter what happens, he is in control. For the players on the court, that’s big. The player can look over to the bench and feed off that calmness, and that should translate into less panic on the court.

Next on the docket: the players who will be learning from Jay. One of the bonuses of the total remodelling of a franchise is that all bad habits are GONE. Everyone is starting fresh, everyone is on the same page. That’s one BIG good thing. The second is when you replace Jason Kapono with DeMar DeRozan, you get a huge upgrade all over the court. DeRozan was a decent defender and rebounder in college (I don’t think I need to mention his ups). Since then, all he’s done is add a ton of muscle and work his ass off in the practice gym. Bringing in Reggie Evans and Rasho Nesterovic are obviously a boost to the Raptors front court depth but their true value may be more in the intangible category. Every report out of Raptors training camp we’ve heard is how those two guys are forcing Bargnani to alter his game: to grow. They’re forcing him to work, to adapt, to bang, to fight on the court. We know about Bargnani’s emerging offensive prowess, but I’m looking for big things from him defensively. Hedo Turkoglu is not a good defender. There’s no two ways about it. Then again, before the JO trade the 3 was handled mostly by Jamario Moon. Nothing against Jamario, but if he is starting for your NBA team, missing the playoffs should not be coming as a surprise. Basically: if Turk can score 18+ points most games, the extra offense will make up for the step back on defense. Jose on the other hand is a mediocre defender who had a terrible year in 2008-2009. Last year, he was hampered with a bad hamstring (word on the street is it was an over 2-inch tear), which basically made it impossible for him to stay in front of his man. Having him back at full health is an improvement over last year defensively at the point. So the starting 5 overall loses some defense because of Hedo, but there should be improvement from within at the 1 and the 5. As far as rebounding goes, losing Shawn Marion is obviously painful to the team rebounding effort, especially when considering his replacement is Turk. But, remember they replaced the Parker/Kapono combo with DeRozan/Wright, plus replaced Voskuhl/Mensah-Bonsu with Nesterovic/Evans/Johnson. Time will tell, but I’d say with all these changes, it’s a wash or maybe a slight improvement on the boards. The wild card in that is DeRozan. He has the abilities, he just has to make the most of them.

And speaking of Rasho/Reggie/ Amir, the Raps’ 2nd unit is ready for war. With these guys, plus Wright, Jarret Jack, Sonny Weems, Patrick O’Bryant, Quincy Douby and Marco Belinelli coming off the bench, the Raptors have options. This group includes some good defenders and rebounders. There’s some offense here, as well. Jack proved to be a more than effective point guard last season. Amir Johnson is one of my favourite underrated players in the Association. He’s an athletic monster who goes hard every second he’s on the court. If there’s a loose ball near the hoop, watch out. He’s going up HARD. Rasho is Rasho, he has proved his worth over the years. All in all, I’ll go so far as to say the Raptors 2nd unit could be as strong as any in the Association. The bench’s main impact though will be at the end of games, in my opinion. I’m not sold on opponent’s FG% as a really great stat for one simple reason: a stop at the end of the game is worth more than a stop in the first quarter. The Raptors lost so many games in the last minute last year that it made my head and heart hurt. My liver didn’t talk to me for weeks after the season ended. If the Raptors now have the ability to sub in a few lockdown defenders for a big defensive stand, that is worth than a few extra wins this season. Especially when you pair this with the improved offense the Raptors bring to the court. The example I gave my cohort on this blog James was, say a team has in general a good defensive game. They give up in three quarters an average of 23 points against. But they blow up one quarter and give up 35 points. The opponent’s FG% might not be that bad, but that still would count in my book as a bad defensive game (for me, a defensive collapse in the 4th causing a loss is always going to be a bad game). Go check tape of the first Nets/Raptors game last year. Granted, the Nets played well in the 2nd half, but if Carter wasn’t left open not once but TWICE at the end of the game, the Raptors probably win. And by probably I mean almost certainly. In fact, I don’t want to talk about this. I feel sick again.

How can I make myself feel better…. oh yeah! The Raptors offense is, in a word: wow. Jose back at full health to distribute the ball; DeRozan flying all over the court, tracking down loose balls, throwing down dunks and generally slicing through the defense; Bosh with his newly developed size and desire to get to the post more; Bargnani with his continued growth from last year and the Turk impact to hit big shots and find open teammates make the Raptors starting 5 INCREDIBLY dangerous. All can shoot, all can pass, all can get to the basket. If any team tries to double team any single Raptor, watch out. These guys can and will find an open man, and he can and will make the right shots and passes. The bench gives numerous different looks as well. Amir Johnson is a beast around the basket offensively (youtube him – if you’ve never really watched him before, get ready to fall in love, Toronto). Belinelli can shoot and is an underrated ball handler. Jack is worthy of being a starting 1 or 2 on some teams. He can handle the ball, he can shoot, he can get into traffic in the lane, he’s tenacious, he wants to win, and he’s a natural leader. The sky is honestly the limit for this club on offense. I don’t have anything else to say about it. It should be a masterpiece.

That is the biggest reason the Raptors will be amongst the top tier of the Eastern Conference this year. The Raptors, unlike most teams, and unlike what conventional wisdom or any basketball coach worth his salt would normally say, can win giving up over 100 points a game. Why? Because the Raptors can score 110 a game and not blink. The team is almost impossible to defend. They will shoot a high percentage. They have guys who will fight and scrap for loose balls. They have lockdown defenders and veteran leaders on the bench, they have a healthy Jose Calderon looking to rebound, and most importantly, they have Bosh. Bosh took last year as a personal insult. He wants to be the best. He wants to be the 3rd guy next summer in the Wade/LeBron talk. The only way for that to happen isn’t to improve his own stats (which are already pretty mind-blowing), but to improve the overall success of the team. Bosh needs to prove that he can lead a team to wins, to the playoffs, and beyond. If he wants to seriously be considered in the LeBron/Wade conversation there is no other way. Bosh knows this. He saw success coming from the post rather than the elbow, so he bulked up to stay healthy enough to bang under the hoop all year. He has 4 guys to pass the ball to who are dangerous players. And most importantly, the dirty secret of the Raptors this year: Bosh doesn’t need to carry the team to wins. If Bosh has an off night there are enough other weapons that can carry this club. Bosh won’t be counted on to break down defences as time winds down on the game clock now that Turk is around. Bosh won’t be forced to backup at center due to injuries, thanks to the depth that currently exists up front. He won’t be seeing as many double teams due to the overall firepower of the club (who gets left open – Jose? Bargnani? Turk? DeRozan?). All Bosh has to worry about this year is himself. So to recap: Healthy Jose, HIGHLY motivated Bosh, improved Bargnani, upgrade at EVERY SINGLE OTHER POSITION, except possibly defence and rebounding at the starting 3 (but improvement off the bench and in other spots).

So where are the extra wins to get the Raptors into the playoffs coming from? Well, the rest of the Eastern Conference may not be as strong as advertised when you look at it closely. Miami is counting on Jermaine O’Neal’s health this year (check his quotes – it’s freaking groundhog day for him) – any Raptors fan can tell Heat supporters how that’s going to go. Philadelphia got worse, Atlanta stayed the same, Boston has to seriously start looking at life without KG being KG (if they don’t have him at or near full strength, there’s no sugar-coating it, they will be much worse), the Knicks actually might have gotten worse (if that’s possible) and the Nets definitely did. In fact, the only teams that improved are Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington and Chicago. Charlotte’s improvement MIGHT net them the 8th seed, Orlando and Cleveland were already one and two in the east. So that means two teams in direct competition with the Raps improved, while 6 or 7 either stayed the same or got worse. Including potentially every team in the Raptors division. Even if the Raptors had thrown out the same line-up as last year, they’d probably improve by 2-3 spots, but they aren’t throwing out the same team. The Raptors are throwing out potentially the best offense in the entire Association. 4 more wins last year and the Raptors leapfrog Indiana, Charlotte, New Jersey and Milwaukee. All of whom got worse this offseason. 7 more wins and they leapfrog Detroit (who may or may not have jumped off a cliff this offseason) and make the playoffs.

I went through last season’s results and picked out some losses that don’t sit well with me. Last season, the Raptors lost 129-127 to New Jersey in OT (in a game that could arguably go down as the worst loss in franchise history); 98-97 to Portland. They lost to Detroit, Philly, New Orleans, New Jersey again (by 7), Golden State (by 6), Milwaukee by 10, Indiana by 7, Milwaukee AGAIN by 11, MEMPHIS by 8 (scoring 70 points), the Knicks by 30 (the freaking Knicks!), Detroit by 4 in OT, Charlotte by 13 and Charlotte by 26 back to back (!), the Knicks by 9, Indiana by 29, and Washington by 2. Theoretically, every one of those should be a win. Obviously teams lose games they should win all the time, but that right there is 19 games that could easily have been wins. If they had won 9, suddenly the Raptors were 42 and 40 and in the 6th spot.

Last year, the Raptors scored 99 PPG and allowed 102. Even if the team defence doesn’t improve from last year (and I think it will), the offense scoring 106+ points a game translates to wins. Pure and simple. Even if that’s only an extra 4 or 5 that they would have lost last year, add those with the loses that were games thrown away last year and suddenly the Raptors are looking at 46-47 wins and the 4th spot overall. Is it that easy? Absolutely it is. The competition got worse and the team got better. Good teams beat the teams that they should beat. This club is built to withstand injury. This club is built to score. And this club is being moulded right now into a team that can play passable defense. The injection of heart (guys like Evans and Rasho, plus the extra motivation of Jose and Bosh to prove to themselves and the world that they are among the best ballers in the world) and leadership also boost the intangible qualities of the club. With a little confidence and some swagger to go with it, the kind that can only come from seeing success and building on it, and this could be a team to fear. If they get on a roll, watch out. This is a good team, now they just have to prove it.