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The NBA season is almost here.

First of all, WOOOOO!

Second, um, hello. I come to you with my predictions for the season, along with reasons I’m excited about each and every team that I’ll be watching on League Pass from this week till mid-April. We know how difficult it is to prognosticate in October and that injuries and trades will change everything, but hey, predictions are fun! Feel free to call me out when some of the things I say look hilariously dumb a month or two from now. Here we go:

Eastern Conference

1. Miami: 66-16 (last season: 47-35)

I might actually be selling them short with 66. They’ve got weaknesses (old and slow bench, subpar centers) but their strengths are so strong that they should win most regular season games fairly easily.

I can’t imagine trying to gameplan for them. We’ve seen that it takes a total team defensive effort to limit LeBron and Wade separately. Now, they’re together, with Bosh?! They’re going to punish teams on the break and get to the line a billion times a game. It’s going to be amazing to watch.

Excited about: Finding out if they care about winning 70+, seeing if Spoelstra gets creative with his offense, and discussing LeBron’s on-court brilliance instead of his off-court madness.

2. Orlando: 60-22 (last season: 59-23)

Don’t forget how good the Magic were last season. They had the league’s best point differential and it wasn’t close. They went 33-8 in the second half of the season. Entering the playoffs, lots of extremely smart people (and I) picked them to win the East. Problem is, they ran into a Boston team playing at its peak.

This year, if Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis play the way they should, you still have to consider Orlando title contenders. The Heat look impossible, but you can see the Magic giving them trouble. Miami currently has no one to guard Dwight one-on-one and there are plenty of capable outside shooters here to make them pay for doubling.

There’s room for improvement on last season’s mark because Vince Carter had some truly awful stretches last season while learning the offense and playing hurt. A bounceback season is possible for VC, even though he’s turning 34 in January. His strong pre-season is evidence for this.

Excited about: Dwight Howard proving Ben Q. Rock right for saying what he said here.

3. Boston: 50-32 (last season: 50-32)

This is still a championship contender. No one wants to face them in the playoffs. When you’ve got Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, and Kendrick Perkins, you’ve got an elite defense. Even with Tom Thibodeau gone.

However, as we saw last year, this team isn’t built with the regular season in mind. While it is certainly possible to improve on last season’s mark due to their painfully average second half of 2009-2010, I wouldn’t bet on it. Even with the strengthened bench – watch out, they’re incredibly deep now – the Celtics likely will lose games due to their veterans’ injuries and reduced minutes. Hopefully, though, they won’t lose any due to disinterest this time around.

Excited about: Delonte West redeeming himself, Rondo starting in the All-Star Game.

Gary Dineen / Getty Images

4. Milwaukee: 47-35 (last season: 46-36)

If you’re pessimistic about the Bucks’ chances, I understand. They vastly overachieved relative to expectations last season and Skiles has a track record of flaming out. There are difficult rotation decisions to make here and Keyon Dooling is a downgrade from Luke Ridnour at the backup point guard spot that was so important last year.

I’m going the other way, though. Counting on improvement from Brandon Jennings and hoping for only a small drop-off from Andrew Bogut, I think Milwaukee can sustain despite not being able to sneak up on teams anymore.

Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette address their desperate need for more scoring. Maggette in particular is a perfect fit for the free throw-challenged Bucks, as he is incredible at getting to the line. These two don’t play standout defense, but Skiles has incorporated poor defenders into great defensive systems before. And with the deep bench and versatility on this roster, it should happen again.

Excited about: EVERYTHING. This was one of my favourite teams to watch last season. Can’t wait to see Jennings and Bogut work the pick and roll (on both ends), thrilled that CDR has a fresh start, and hungry for a Brockman Burger.

4. Chicago: 47-35 (last season: 41-41)

Trading Vinny Del Negro for Tom Thibodeau and acquiring a much-needed low post scorer and pick-and-roll man in Carlos Boozer means the Bulls should be worlds better than last season.

I hesitate to put them in the 50-win category just yet, especially with Boozer out to start the season, but if Thibs can impart some of his defensive wisdom on Derrick Rose then they certainly have a shot at it. Rose can improve on the other side of the ball, too – even if he doesn’t become a three-point threat this season, just getting to the line more would be huge.

Excited about: An improved offense – TT is known as a defensive mastermind, but the Bulls’ problem under VDN was the other side of the floor, where they’ve already shown progress.

6. Atlanta: 46-36 (last season: 53-29)

Atlanta’s bringing back basically the same club that won 53 games last season. But with Larry Drew implementing a motion-based offense and a defense that isn’t built on switching every screen, Hawks games will be different.

To sustain their record, I’d have to bet that the potentially more entertaining offense will be as effective as their isolation-heavy offense. I’d have to bet on Jeff Teague emerging as a viable alternative to Mike Bibby and his atrocious defense. I’d have to bet on Jamal Crawford duplicating his fantastic Sixth Man of the Year campaign last season. I’d have to bet on another essentially injury-free season. Can’t do that.

Excited about: Josh Smith remaining the best player on the team and finally making it to the All-Star Game.

7. Philadelphia: 38-44 (last season: 27-55)

Call me crazy, but I think they have playoff talent. I had them at 40-42 a year ago and still think they were capable of that mark if Eddie Jordan hadn’t lost them.

Jordan was hired to make a good defensive team also a good offensive team. He ended up making a bad offensive team also a bad defensive team. Under Doug Collins, things should be different.

As has been the case for years now, there’s plenty of young defensive weapons here. They should be able to force turnovers and bad shots. And on offense, they have plenty of options. I am sure Collins will draw up a thousand plays and make sure they get efficient looks at the basket.

They still lack wing shooting, but have numerous big men who can help space the floor. For things to go right, the rotations must be balanced and everyone’s going to have to buy in. You can’t count on this happening, but I’ll be optimistic.

Excited about: Jrue Holiday, but maybe not as excited as Doug Collins is.

7. New York: 38-44 (last season: 29-53)

With the additions of Amar’e, Felton, Azubuike, Turiaf, and everyone’s favourite 21 year-old, Anthony Randolph, we’re looking at a possible playoff squad.

I’ve got them in the post-season because I think they’re going to be a quality offensive team. And, if D’Antoni has them practicing defense this season, they’re capable of being not-completely-terrible on that end, too.

Felton isn’t the ideal 7SOL point guard, but he’s solid for the price they paid. And Amar’e, assuming he’s as motivated as he was after the All-Star Break last season, could average over 30. With the fantastic value they got for David Lee, you have to call the off-season a success.

They really need to look at acquiring some rebounding help, though.

Excited about: Amar’e Stoudemire and Anthony Randolph finishing fast breaks.

9. Charlotte: 35-47 (last season: 44-38)

The playoffs aren’t out of the question, with Larry Brown’s track record of squeezing the most out of clubs like this. But the fact is that this team lost its starting center and point guard and haven’t replaced them.

Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson had to carry the team offensively last season. They’ll have to do that again, and I’m not confident they’ll have the league’s best defense again.

Excited about: Shaun Livingston having an NBA home.

10. Indiana: 34-48 (last season: 32-50)

Finally, they’ve got a point guard. The Troy Murphy for Darren Collison trade looks like a home run for Indy. But how will it translate in the win column this year?

I see Indy being terrible on the glass, average on D, and decent on offense. Sure, the offense could be better than decent if Collison, Granger, and Hibbert all have great seasons. But will that make ‘em a playoff team? I’m guessing no, even in the East.

An offensive boost would change what it’s like to watch this team, though. In contrast to their very entertaining 2008-2009 run, last year’s Pacers were a chore to watch. As the second-fastest team in the league, they proved that fast-paced basketball isn’t always exciting basketball. Here’s hoping Collison makes things fun again.

Excited about: The new and improved Roy Hibbert.

11. Washington: 30-52 (last season: 26-56)

If you’re like me, you’re a big Gilbert Arenas fan and you’re itching to see him out there again. You want to know if he can be an efficient scorer off the ball. You want to see if he’s healthy and committed enough to play solid defense.

And if you’re like me, you watched more college basketball last season than you had in years simply because of John Wall’s Kentucky team. The kid is electric and we expect big things for good reason. Just know that rookie point guards make lots of mistakes while learning on the job.

Without knowing how Wall/Arenas works out, and with the tantalizing/frustrating talents of Andray Blatche still in the frontcourt, it’s difficult to project where this team lands up. I suspect they’ll be the most inconsistent team in the league. I’ll say they improve this year, but they’ll need to make a roster move or two with defense in mind if they are to make a big jump right away.

Excited about: John Wall’s alley-oops to JaVale McGee.

12. Detroit: 28-54 (last season: 27-55)

No doubt, last year’s team underachieved. It was a deep team that had plenty of offensive firepower, yet it finished 21st in offense. Injuries to almost every key contributor had much to do with it. The team never clicked, roles were never established, and one got the feeling halfway through the season that the team was looking forward to next year.

Now, it’s next year. They’ve got something to prove. But there are flaws on this roster. It lacks a star and quality two-way players. Kuester’s going to have to figure out how to balance the rotation and define roles. Even with Jerebko hurt, there are major logjams at the 2, 3, and 4. The front office must want to see development from the young guys, but can they sit the highly-paid veterans?

The McGrady signing is confusing because of his age and the fact that they have guys who play the same positions. It’s interesting, though, because this team desperately needs a distributor. That’s a role McGrady is capable of fulfilling if he wants to.

Excited about: Will Bynum’s increased range.

13. New Jersey: 27-55 (last season: 12-70)

Last season, the Nets’ power forward minutes went to Yi Jianlian, Kris Humphries, and Josh Boone. This year, they’ll go to Troy Murphy and Derrick Favors. This alone should bump up their win total.

Their offense should improve greatly, as Avery Johnson will make sure they actually run plays. Anthony Morrow, Travis Outlaw, and hopefully a full year of the late-season version of Terrence Williams will help, too.

Avery will preach defense, but I don’t think they have the personnel to be good on that end. This is what’ll keep them out of playoff contention.

Excited about: The beauty that is an Anthony Morrow jumper and a Terrence Williams dunk.

13. Toronto: 27-55 (last season: 40-42)

Duh, the Raptors will be significantly worse this year. They lost their only elite player and their off-season moves don’t give us reason to see their-league worst defense becoming passable. Bargnani’s touch and size make him an extremely tough cover, but teams have fared a lot better against him with Bosh sitting out. Unless they hit an absolute home run with their trade exception, don’t expect much winning this year.

Toronto could be fun to watch, though. Last year’s team was maddening at times due to high expectations and Hedo Turkoglu. Both are gone, now. Any success this group finds will be a surprise. I’m looking forward to watching my hometown team, even if I have no delusions about a playoff berth.

Excited about: The Young Onez dunking on fools.

15. Cleveland: 18-64 (last season: 61-21)

It kills me to make this prediction. Cleveland fans don’t deserve this, but here we are.

What was once an elite defensive team will be much worse without LeBron and Delonte. Anderson Varejao and J.J. Hickson were efficient offensively, but never had to create shots for themselves. Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison can score, but I doubt they’re in Cleveland by the trade deadline.

It’ll be great to see Ramon Sessions get starters’ minutes and you have to hope Byron Scott lets the young guys run. You’ll want to watch the Cavs to see Jamario Moon and J.J. Hickson finishing fast breaks.

Excited about: The healthy Leon Powe.

Western Conference

Lluis Gene / AFP Photo / Getty Images

Just as they did last year, the Lakers have 70-win potential. In fact, there’s no reason they can’t improve. Their bench will be better than it was. Pau could get more touches. Kobe could be more efficient.

The other side of it: these Lakers haven’t consistently played with the discipline required to win 70 games in the regular season. They’ll abandon the triangle, coast through some possessions, and rely on their superior talent to win close games. They’re an absolute joy to watch at their peak, but we don’t know when they’ll play at their peak.

With Bynum’s knee and Kobe’s finger, I’ll say they’ll duplicate their last regular season. I also expect them to return to the finals.

Excited about: Matt Barnes and Ron Artest on the same team!

2. Portland: 53-29 (last season: 50-32)

Portland overachieved last year when you consider the ridiculous assortment of injuries it had to face. With fewer injuries, a young core one year older, and a full season of Marcus Camby, this team should be among the league’s best.

Stat people love this team and it’s clear why. The Blazers are deep at every position, Brandon Roy is a year removed from being “just a step behind Kobe,” Greg Oden is a monster at both ends when he’s healthy, and Nic Batum seems poised to break out. I just hope they’re at full-strength come playoff time.

Excited about: Rose Garden going f’ing crazy in the playoffs.

3. San Antonio: 51-31 (last season: 50-32)

The West will be tough, but don’t expect the Spurs to go away. They won 50 games with disappointing seasons from Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson. Now, with Tiago Splitter giving Timmy some help on the inside, they’ve improved.

Duncan and Ginobili are still producing and I don’t expect that to change. Sure, Tim’s not the dominating defensive presence he once was, but he’s still effective there and a game-changer on the offensive end. They probably won’t get a full season from Manu, but George Hill can capably fill in and The Poo God is still one of the league’s very best two-guards when he’s healthy.

Excited about: DeJuan Blair, 21 years old, starting in the NBA without ACL’s.

Nathaniel S. Butler / Getty Images

4. Oklahoma City: 50-32 (last season: 50-32)

Despite OKC being my favourite team to root for, I’d be surprised if these guys increased their win total from last season.

Even with improvement from almost everyone on the roster, wins will be hard to come by in the West. And last year was a special, special season for the Thunder: In addition to finding that magical chemistry that made NBA freaks fall in love with them, they somehow managed to remain injury-free. They’d be incredibly lucky to duplicate that.

Excited about: More minutes for the lovable Serge Ibaka and the bearded James Harden.

5. Utah: 49-33 (last season: 50-32)

Their 8-0 preseason made me rethink this team a little. I thought they’d start slow again, with Okur out and Jefferson getting himself settled in. Now, though, I’m thinking maybe we won’t have to wait for the new year to let out a collective “holy crap, this team is good!”

With Korver in Chicago and Matthews in Portland, it’s important for the Jazz to get some production from Raja Bell and Gordon Hayward.

Excited about: Paul Millsap being featured in the offense again, Al Jefferson playing on national television, and Raja Bell at full health.

6. Dallas: 46-36 (last season: 55-27)

The Mavs are old and they overachieved last season by winning tons of close games. Nonetheless, they are a good basketball team.

Dirk is a treasure and he’ll continue putting up monster numbers without wasting possessions. I hoped they’d get more for Dampier’s nonguaranteed contract, but Chandler should play well with Jason Kidd. Hopefully he can stay on the floor.

The problem is that they still don’t have an elite wing creator to pair with Dirk… or at least not a proven one. If I’m Rick Carlisle, I’m playing Roddy Beaubois 30+ minutes a game because he’s the only hope Dallas has of making a significant improvement this year. If he can come close to sustaining his awesome per-minute stats from last year, this team could be on the right track. The problem, of course, is keeping Kidd/Terry/Butler/Marion happy with the reduced minutes that would result.

Excited about: Rodrigue Beaubois, just like every other NBA diehard is.

7. Denver: 44-38 (last season: 53-29)

There’s talent in Denver, but things aren’t looking great for 2010-2011. Obviously, the most important storyline here is what happens with Melo. After that, though, you have to wonder how they’ll do up front with the Birdman and Kenyon Martin having knee issues – this team was only average on defense last season.

Ty Lawson should get more minutes and look for his own shot more often. This’ll help. Al Harrington will help, too. But we’re still waiting for J.R. Smith to put it all together and there’s no way to know when that’s going to happen. Assuming Melo sticks around, I’m comfortable saying this is a playoff team, but uncomfortable predicting anything better than that.

Excited about: More gems like this.

7. Houston: 44-38 (last season: 42-40)

You already know Yao’s playing a maximum of 24 minutes each night and he’ll skip some back-to-backs. He’s still going to transform the way this team plays.

They’re going to have to get used to playing two different styles on a regular basis: with Yao, they must make a concerted effort to feed the post in the half-court. Without him, they must push the ball in the style they did last year. It’s going to be up to Aaron Brooks to pick his spots offensively. (Hint: cut down the field goal attempts when the big man is out there.)

The Rockets certainly have the pieces to be a much better offensive team than we saw last year. We don’t know, however, if they can get back to being the defensive force we were used to until Yao’s injury. With Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin sharing the backcourt, and Yao struggling with mobility, this will be a challenge.

Excited about: Yao! And probably my favourite bench in the league: Kyle Lowry, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes, and the suddenly-intriguing Ish Smith.

9. Memphis: 42-40 (last season: 40-42)

Like the Thunder, Memphis was able to avoid major injuries last season. With that luck, an unexpected All-Star campaign from Zach Randolph, and the emergence of Marc Gasol as an All-Star caliber player as well, they exceeded expectations.

Their undefeated preseason is definitely encouraging. Historically, teams that roll through the preseason at least make the playoffs. And with the way this team should dominate the offensive glass and score at the basket, that’s a realistic goal. It’ll be tough in this conference, though.

The Grizzlies brought back their important players and added Tony Allen and Xavier Henry. If Darrell Arthur can give them something and there’s improvement from OJAM and Gasol, they could do some damage. I’m just not convinced that they’ll be playoff-bound with that bench and that defense.

Excited about: Marc Gasol getting more touches. Please, Basketball Gods, make this happen.

Christian Peterson / Getty Images

10. Phoenix: 40-42 (last season: 54-28)

Of course, it’s possible that Phoenix will return to the playoffs. With Steve Nash and plenty of shooters, their offense should be very good. (I say this despite them making less than a quarter of their threes in the preseason.)

The problem is that, without Amar’e, I don’t expect them to be GREAT offensively. And if you’re going to be as bad as I think the Suns will be on defense and on the boards, you need a fantastic offense to make up for it.

Look for Nash/Lopez and Nash/Warrick pick-and-rolls. Look for Turkoglu to be better than he was in Toronto, but nowhere near worthy of that crazy contract. Look for Josh Childress’s awesome mini-fro. But don’t look for a team anywhere near as good as it was last May.

Excited about: Another year of Steve Nash, another year of JMZ.

11. New Orleans: 39-43 (last season: 37-45)

A healthy Chris Paul is worth more than two extra wins in a vacuum, but almost every team in the West improved.

Paul has carried weak supporting casts before and this year he’s actually a part of a very solid starting unit. This team is shallow, though. In fact, the bench is so blah that it makes sense for Marcus Thornton to play the 6th man role despite being clearly superior to Marco Belinelli, horrendous preseason shooting notwithstanding. I dig the Jerryd Bayless acquisition and I like me some Pops, but I think they need more help.

Excited about: Chris Paul reminding people he’s a legit MVP candidate when he’s at full-strength.

12. Golden State: 36-46 (last season: 26-56)

David Lee, Lou Amundson, Dorell Wright, Jeremy Lin, Rodney Carney, Charlie Bell, Dan Gadzuric, and half a season of Ekpe Udoh > Corey Maggette, Anthony Morrow, Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, and C.J. Watson?

Not exactly.

But it’s not as simple as that. These Warriors should be much better than last year. With Don Nelson out of there, this team should play some defense. Reggie Williams won’t have to play power forward. Andris Biedrins will actually get on the floor. Brandan Wright might finally get a chance.

The Steph Curry/David Lee pick-and-roll will be almost impossible to stop. Monta Ellis could go back to scoring efficiently. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the W’s right now. I just get the feeling they’re a year away, in this conference.

Excited about: Staying up late to watch these guys put up lots of points, Bay Area fans finally seeing this franchise move in a positive direction.

13. Sacramento: 35-47 (last season: 25-57)

If DeMarcus Cousins is as good as I think he is, Sacramento’s offense just got a lot better. And with a full season of Carl Landry and improvement from their young guys, the Kings should have made some progress on the offensive end anyway.

Samuel Dalembert might be seen as simply an expiring contract, but he should be huge for the Kings on D when he returns from injury. The Kings haven’t had a shot-blocker in ages and desperately needed an anchor last season. Spencer Hawes may be full of potential, but he’s never going to be that guy.

The second-year bump from Evans and Casspi along with the Cousins/Landry/Dalembert/Thompson frontcourt makes it tempting to predict an OKC-like leap in the standings. While I’d LOVE to see it happen, I’m betting against it. Still, there will be progress.

Excited about: DeMarcus Cousins making a couple of GM’s look very, very foolish.

14. Los Angeles Clippers: 31-51 (last season: 29-53)

The Clippers were awful again last season. Baron Davis was better than the year before, but he still launched way too many ill-advised threes. Despite a great season from Chris Kaman, they were 28th in offense. And if you’ve paid for ESPN Insider and read Hollinger’s preview, then you know that they only had the point differential of a 21-win team.

This year, with Blake Griffin, they should be better. But he’s the only reason I’m optimistic. Baron Davis came into camp out of shape and I’m not confident that Vinny Del Negro is the answer here. As with any of Baron’s teams, there’s potential for a huge turnaround because we know he has an incredible amount of talent. I just don’t see how you can trust that he’ll harness it the way we want him to at this point.

Excited about: More highlights like this.

15. Minnesota: 22-60 (last season: 15-67)

I want to give them more than 22 based on talent, but I see them underachieving on offense and being terrible defensively.

Kind of like last year, where they finished 29th in offense despite having Al Jefferson and Kevin Love on the team… and were so bad defensively that Darko Milicic seemed like a revelation to their General Manager.

The difference is, this year, if they underachieve like I think they will, it’ll be even more annoying. This team really has talent. David Kahn made some puzzling off-season decisions, but Wesley Johnson, Martell Webster, Luke Ridnour, Nikola Pekovic, and Anthony Tolliver are rotation players. Minnesota actually has real depth here.

I’d love to see a more-than-7-game improvement, but I’m worried that tons of turnovers, players struggling with the system, and embarrassing interior D will keep them in the West’s basement.

Excited about: Kevin Love finally getting the minutes he deserves.

Hey, check it out – a new feature! This is the debut of Basketball for Breakfast, my stab at a daily recap. I know, I know, there is already a wealth of excellent recaps in the NBA blogosphere. I read them all and that won’t change. This isn’t an attempt to compete with anyone; I’m simply trying to add something of my own. I’ll do my best to keep it fun and unique.

The All-OTN Team

Amir Johnson: 2 Pts (0-2 FG, 2-4 FT), 7 Reb (4 Off), 1 Ast, 4 PF in 20 min.

Not the most impressive stat line in this 106-102 loss to the Wizards, I’ll admit. He was enjoyable to watch, though. The man always brings the energy. Those 7 rebounds? 6 of them came in the first half, including an amazing grab that he followed up with an assist to a cutting Chris Bosh. What’s most impressive about Amir’s rebounding is that he gets them in different ways – last night, I saw him tip the ball to himself, tip it to his teammates, and straight-up wrestle it away from opponents’ fingertips. He is one of the few Raptors in the franchise’s history who manages to get rebounds that he shouldn’t. The 4 fouls in 20 are unfortunate, but he’s still learning.

Jared Dudley: 7 Pts (2-5 FG, 1-2 3PT, 1-2 FT), 7 Reb (3 Off), 1 TO, 2 PF in 18 min.

Again, these numbers won’t blow you away, but they rarely do with Jared. I’ll tell you this: I didn’t see much of this 126-99 blowout, but in the couple of minutes where I tuned in during the 2nd quarter I saw Jared Dudley make three impressive plays in succession: hitting a three-pointer, drawing a foul underneath the basket, and saving a possession for his team. Clyde Frazier, calling the game for the Knicks, seemed positively smitten with him. It’s always nice to get 7 rebounds from your backup small forward, too. Shame his effort wasn’t anywhere close to enough to avoid this embarrassing defeat.

Shannon Brown: 4 Pts (1-6 FG, 0-2 3PT, 2-2 FT), 2 Reb, 2 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 3 PF in 23 min.

Argh. More crappy numbers. Doesn’t mean he had a bad game, though. On the night where his new website launched, he entered the game with 1:07 left in the 1st quarter and stayed there through most of the 2nd, absolutely shutting down sharpshooter Marcus Thornton. Brown quite obviously wasn’t on the court to score; he was there to stop Lil Buckets from doing so. And he succeeded – Lil Buckets couldn’t get anything going in the first half. Unfortunately, the Hornets didn’t Let Shannon Dunk on this night, as his best opportunity was a missed alley-oop from Kobe Bryant. His one FG was pretty nice, though:

Rookie Watch

DeMar DeRozan: 2 Pts (1-4 FG), 2 Reb, 1 Ast, 2 TO, 1 Blk, 1 PF in 16 mins.

Not a standout night for DeMar, as he missed a couple of jumpers we know he can make. It’s important to remember what his role is on this team, though. Since Jay Triano has opted to play him pretty much exclusively with the starting unit, he is not asked to take a lot shots and doesn’t get many opportunities to get in rhythm. We saw some nice plays, though – DeRozan’s 1 FG came on an alley-oop from Jose Calderon, where he didn’t have the angle to slam it down so he adjusted and layed it in. His block on Gilbert Arenas in the 3rd quarter was fantastic, too. I’ve got to add that the 1 Ast is a bit deceiving, as he made a couple of aggressive plays that led to scores where he was not credited for any stats. One in particular stands out, where he drove on the right baseline and kicked it out to Chris Bosh, who found Andrea Bargnani at the top of the key for three. That’s a hockey assist. Nice to see. Still firmly on this bandwagon.

Ty Lawson: 13 Pts (5-7 FG, 1-1 3PT, 2-3 FT), 5 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 PF in 24 mins.
Very nice line for Lawson, on the night that his alma mater beat my Spartans by 7. 13 points on 7 shots, in 24 minutes? You have to love that efficiency – this is why statheads love him. And why you should love him? He can score in various ways, as he hurt the Warriors last night with his jump shot, his runner, and his ability to get to the basket. He outscored fellow rook Stephen Curry on this night, despite playing 16 fewer minutes and attempting 7 fewer field goal attempts. Another fun fact: his PER so far this season is 17.6. His teammate J.R. Smith’s? 15.1. Can’t give Denver enough credit for acquiring him in the draft.

Dante Cunningham: 6 Pts (2-6 FG, 2-3 FT), 5 Reb, 1 Ast, 4 PF in 18 mins.

Four fouls in 18 minutes? Ah, rookies. You have to be happy for Cunningham, though, as he made his first career NBA start last night due to LaMarcus Aldridge nursing his knee. While he obviously didn’t make up for Aldridge’s production, he had a positive impact on the game with his hustle. You know I love players like that. And I’m not the only one, check out what Seth Johnston of Bust A Bucket had to say:

Energy like Cunningham’s is something I am craving more and more as we sit and wait for the team’s bigger personalities to sort out their issues. I want a hyperactive role player power forward to just go nuts out there and provide me with some sort of vicarious catharsis. So thanks for giving me a little of that, Dante.

Darren Collison: 20 Pts (7-14 FG, 2-4 3PT, 4-4 FT), 5 Ast, 2 Reb, 4 TO, 2 Stl, 2 PF in 34 mins.
Collison continues to be awesome. I cannot BELIEVE Byron Scott was playing Bobby Brown over him earlier this season. I mean, I feel bad that Byron is without work, but I’m sorry, that was inexcusable. A kid this quick, with his ability to penetrate, knock down shots, and play defense? You put him out there over a chucker like Bobby, every time. Some analysis from Niall Dohery of Hornets247:

He would have had a few hockey assists if anyone kept count, and he was pesky as always on defense. He had two nice plays against Kobe, first getting by him on the perimeter late in the third quarter, keeping him on his back and then using a hesitation dribble to open up a gap for the layup. About a minute later he shadowed Bryant brilliantly to slow down the break and help stop the Lakers getting an easy bucket at the end of the period.

Additionally, he had a crazy buzzer-beater at the end of the 1st half. I’ll put the video here when/if it surfaces.

Fun With Stats

Brendan Haywood shot 1-8 from the line last night against Toronto. This, obviously, hurt his team. Fortunately, he made his minutes worthwhile by doing a very respectable job on Chris Bosh, who was held to 7-22 from the field. If the big man had just made his free throws, though, this game wouldn’t have come down to the final couple of minutes. The Wizards managed to escape with a victory after Hedo Turkoglu committed an unforced turnover with 31 seconds left in the game, but if you’re a Wizards fan you have to think it shouldn’t have got to that point.

In the Phoenix/New York game, the Suns failed to reach 100 points for the first time this season. The Knicks managed 100 points by the end of the third quarter. I should also point out the magnificent work of Danilo Gallinari: 27 pts (10-19 FG, 6-12 3PT, 1-2 FT), 10 Reb, 2 Ast, 2 Blk, 0 (!) TO in 36 mins. Check out what Seth of Posting and Toasting had to say about Gallo’s fantastic all-around game:

He looked much more confident and made his way into the center of the court to participate more in the offensive flow. There were backdoor cuts, frontdoor cuts, and even a stop-and-pop banker from about 12 feet out.

So great that he’s being more than just an excellent three-point shooter, isn’t it? I am sure that Francesco Cappelletti of Ball In Europe is proud as hell right now.

Also scoring from all over the floor last night was Anthony Morrow, who scored 27 points against Denver while only hitting 2 three pointers (in all of his other 20+ games this year, he’s had at least 4 threes). It may be because of the limited bodies the Warriors have at their disposal right now, but I can’t tell you how happy I am to see that gorgeous shot launched so often these days.

Two more statistical shout-outs for before I move on – Michael Beasley and Ray Allen were huge in winning efforts. Beas was one point short of his career high, finishing with 27 points on 8-15 shooting from the floor and 11-12 (!) from the line. Pleasing his fantasy owners, he also contributed 8 rebounds, a block, and a steal. Jesus Shuttlesworth came through with his best game of the season, too, as he poured in 27 points on only 9 field goal attempts. When you go 5-6 from downtown and 10-10 from the line, that type of statistical improbability can happen. Oh, and he threw in 5 rebounds, 5 assists, a block, and a steal. Nice to have you back, Ray Ray.

Quoted

“They spread, they go, and they’re kind of all over the place.” – Carmelo Anthony, on Golden State’s offense, from Denver’s telecast. So few words here, but I don’t think he’s missing anything.

“Who are these guys?” – Clyde Frazier, on the Knicks, from New York’s telecast. I must say, Clyde, I was wondering the same thing. 71 points in the first half?

“Just pathetic defense by the Suns.” – Clyde Frazier again, providing spot-on analysis of how Larry Hughes was able to amass about 48 assists in about 4 seconds against Phoenix.

“I’m happy for our fans. They got to go home and watch (North) Carolina and Michigan State. If any of them were smart, they would have left early and watched that game.” – Larry Brown. Wait, there’s more, check out this next gem…

“I think even Doc Rivers had 12 points.” – Gerald Wallace. Ouch. I don’t think you need me to say any more about last night’s Boston/Charlotte matchup.

“I decided today I was going to be more aggressive. It’s fun. It relieves the pressure, it gets me off the ball and puts me back into my old mode where I was just scoring.” – Gilbert Arenas. I was quite impressed with Gilbert last night, even if he’s not quite back to his old self yet. Actually, that gives me an idea…

Impressive

Gilbert Arenas: 22 Pts (7-17 FG, 3-7 3PT, 5-5 FT), 3 Reb, 9 Ast, 1 TO, 1 Stl, 1 Blk in 38 mins.

It took Gil a little while to get going with his shot, but he was dishing out assists as soon as the first quarter began. Only once the fourth quarter began did Agent Zero really join the party, but when he did it was something to see. Like the Gilbert of old, he took control of the game near the end, scoring 12 points in the final frame. Not trying to ignore Antawn Jamison’s 10 fourth-quarter points, but Arenas was leading the team. As a Raptors fan it was annoying, but as a Gilbert fan it was heartening. Give him some more time and he’ll be dominating more quarters.

Andrea Bargnani: 20 Pts (8-14 FG, 2-4 3PT, 2-2 FT), 11 Reb (4 Off), 1 Ast, 2 TO, 1 Blk, 5 PF in 35 mins.

I could definitely get used to seeing double-doubles next to Bargs’s name. Love that. The Italian Rodman grabbed 7 of those boards in the first half, with 3 of them coming on the offensive end. As always, you love his efficient scoring, but when Bargs is boxing out properly and getting after it inside, all of Raptors Nation is proud. More of this please, sir. Oh, almost forgot – his one block came against Earl Boykins. I can’t recall a single instance of Earl Boykins getting a perimeter jumper of his blocked in the NBA, but Bargs managed to do it. Kudos.

Tweeted

@stackmack: On the pizza promo front: Turkoglu’s ONLY make in the fourth quarter was a pointless three at the buzzer to win pizza for the crowd.

@Nat77: Raptor fans cheered when for a buzzer beating slice of pizza and booed while their team was only down 3 and had a chance… #teampromofail

@LakersReporter Lakers crowd is incensed with N.O. scrapping during garbage time enough to threaten free tacos. 99 pts. w/04.8 left…

BAH. Rant time. This stuff pisses me off. Get rid of all of these stupid promotions. If the crowd is chanting, I want it to be about the game. End of story. And, Raptors fans, you’re letting me down lately. I love your passion for the team, I love that there seem to be a gazillon of you on the internet, but smarten up. This isn’t directed at all of you (after all, I am a Raptors fan), just the pizza people and the two fools in the section next to me who were heckling Chris Bosh on Sunday. Not cool.

@ticktock6: I think it’s hilarious that my entire twitter feed is cracking jokes about that Devin Brown airball. Lord, it was so bad. I’m still laughing

@kpelton: Every time I watch this Hornets-Lakers game, Bobby Brown is shooting. He does not lack for confidence.

I don’t even know how I feel about the Browns anymore. It’s just ridiculous at this point. At the beginning of the season, I was screaming at Byron Scott for playing them. Now, they both kind of need to be on the court for at least some stretches, but come on. What is going through their heads with some of these shots? The Devin Brown shot Ticktock6 from Hornets Hype is talking about was honestly one of the worst shots I have EVER seen. Very comparable to Zach Randolph’s boneheaded end-of-game three-pointer last year, except it came in the 1st quarter with plenty of time on the shot clock. As for her reaction (which was the same as mine) – sometimes, you have to laugh because the only other option is to cry. I’ll definitely post the video here if it surfaces later today. Here’s hoping.

To Watch

Lamar Odom destroying Hilton Armstrong:

(This spot is reserved for when nba.com puts up John Thompson’s interview from last night about Allen Iverson. Come on, guys.)

To Read

Generally, I’m going to use this section for articles/posts published the previous day, leaning more heavily on stuff that hasn’t been linked much elsewhere (like this piece on Carl Landry, this one on Jarrett Jack, this one on Mike Wilks, and this one on the Wolves). Today, though, I’ve got to direct you to three excellent Thanksgiving-inspired pieces from a few days ago. If you’re American and you took a break from the NBA for a couple days there, I forgive you, but do yourself a favour and read these. The first two speak perfectly for me, and the last one speaks to me.

Giving Thanks To The Game, by Holly MacKenzie

Guess what I’m thankful for? by Kelly Dwyer

A Different Set Of Eyes, by Tim Donahue

Rocky Widner / Getty Images

In our first podcast, Julian, Eric, and I discuss the Iverson/Memphis debacle, Earl Smith III, Stephen Jackson’s agent vs. Nellie, the ridiculousness of the Raptors, the success of the Suns and Nuggets, the failures of the Cavs and Hornets, and Kobe’s newfound appreciation for the post-up game. Oh, and we play a little game.

We recorded this yesterday, before watching the slew of awesome games covered here and here. So, we didn’t get to talk about Brad Miller’s near-buzzer-beater or Travis Outlaw’s vicious dunk on Rudy Gay. We’ve got you covered on Matt Bonner dunk analysis, though.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

David Sherman/Getty Images

Everyone expected this to be a crappy draft class, but everyone was wrong. Plenty of rookies have impressed in the early part of the season. Here are some of my favourites, along with some advanced stats that I hope you’re already familiar with, but might be completely meaningless given the small sample size we’re dealing with here. Apologies to Terrence Williams, Austin Daye, Taj Gibson, and a few others who may be deserving – it’s early, I’ll get to you guys eventually.

Brandon Jennings

5 games: 21.0 PTS/36, 50.2 TS%, 7.5 TRB%, 27.7 AST%, 16.3 PER.

Admit it, you didn’t think it’d happen so fast. You probably thought “yeah, the kid is talented, but he’s a year or two away from being an impact guy.” Hell, you might have even thought he was a punk after he came under a bit of fire in the media this summer. Well, now you know. Jennings has been arguably the league’s best rookie so far and deserves a ton of credit for Milwaukee’s strong start. The mainstream media has done a complete 180 on him, praising Brandon for his work ethic, the way he handled himself in Rome last season, and the maturity he’s shown on the court this season. He deserves all of this, and I think he deserves a re-evaluation of the “controversial” stuff he said to Joe Budden in the summer. Here’s what he said:

-Ramon Sessions isn’t coming back to Milwaukee, as the team has to pay Charlie V.
-Luke Ridnour will become the Bucks’ backup point guard.
-Ricky Rubio doesn’t scare him.
-Scott Skiles is tough, but there must be a reason the coach liked him.
-The Knicks should have taken him, as Duhon isn’t going to get it done.

Not so crazy now, is it? Brandon’s only error was saying that the Bucks were going to spend money on Charlie Villanueva this summer. Instead, they have Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova, and Kurt Thomas playing his minutes. Can’t really argue with this, as none of them make close to what Charlie is making and, even though he is a skilled scorer, I doubt Jennings’s team would be leading the league in defensive efficiency if he was still starting at the 4. Perhaps this rookie is able to see plays develop before they happen because he can actually see the future.

DeJuan Blair

6 games: 14.5 PTS/36, 60.3 TS%, 18.0 ORB%, 30.9 DRB%, 24.3 TRB%, 15.8 TOV%, 19.3 PER.

Everyone saw this coming, except almost every GM in the NBA. Blair is a rare breed of rebounder, especially on the offensive end, who would have surely been a lottery pick if not for the ACL surgeries (yes, plural). He’s attacking the glass in San Antonio and this, along with his ability to score efficiently around the basket, will continue to make him a stat-geek darling even if his PER ends up dropping a bit. I was screaming at the TV as team after team passed on him on draft day, and when the Spurs scooped him up it seemed almost scripted. San Antonio’s been making the rest of the league look dumb consistently for a decade. Speaking of stat-geeks, it’s long been known in their circles that rebounding is a skill that can be projected fairly accurately from college to the NBA. It’s also long been known that rebounding is a big part of winning basketball games. Still, he fell to #37. Ugh.

Tyreke Evans/Omri Casspi

Evans: 7 games: 17.6 PTS/36, 49.4 TS%, 6.6 TRB%, 19.6 AST%, 11.1 TOV%, 15.7 PER.
Casspi: 7 games: 15.5 PTS/36, 60.1 TS%, 8.9 TRB%, 2.2 BLK%, 14.2 TOV%, 17.1 PER.

Evans’s stats seem a bit crap because he struggled in his first few games, but no one sensible jumped off the bandwagon. It’s been clear from the start that he would be able to create his own shot and get to the hole in the NBA. Kings fans have to be distraught that Kevin Martin is hurt, but there’s a silver lining: Tyreke will get to play pretty much exclusively at his natural position and he’ll become the #1 scoring option (where he’s already had a 32-point effort). It’s always good to see your young guys get an opportunity to show what they can do, especially on a rebuilding team. Luckily for Kings fans, who will not see their club get a ton of wins this year (I’m trying to be nice here), they have more than one exciting young rook who should see major floor time. Casspi has proven to be an efficient scorer, a capable defender, and a major nuisance for opposing teams. He hustles, he’s physical, and he seems like a keeper (despite what Stephen Jackson says). I tried to make a trade to get him on my fantasy team yesterday, but couldn’t get it done. The reason his owner gave me? You can’t let go of a guy who’s that much fun to root for. Yep.

DeMar DeRozan

7 games: 9.2 PTS/36. 50.7 TS%. 9.2 RB%. 9.1 AST%. 3.6 BLK%. 11.0 TOV%, 11.9 PER.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The stats aren’t impressive. But we knew he was a project, right? He’s 20 years old. Here’s the impressive thing, though: he doesn’t seem like a 20 year old out there. When I think of “projects”, especially the athletic types, I think of guys who drive coaches crazy. I think of ill-advised jumpers, stupid fouls, and botched rotations, interspersed with occasional “wow” plays. That’s not DeMar. This kid is starting at the two because he doesn’t force anything, rarely makes costly mistakes, isn’t afraid of contact, and picks his spots. He’s not yet close to being the shut-down defender the Raptors hope he will become, but he hasn’t embarrassed himself on that end thus far (although he was a small part of a shameful defensive performance against the Spurs last night). Raptors fans, myself included, are comfortable with him on the court right now and excited about his potential.

Jonny Flynn

8 games: 19.0 PTS/36, 58.1 TS%, 5.9 TRB%, 21.1 AST%, 21.3 TOV%, 16.9 PER.

Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, although obviously you want the turnovers to go way down. Give the kid time, though, and that’ll take care of itself. Full disclosure: I haven’t seen enough of the Wolves yet to get a proper handle on Flynn at this level. I know from watching him in college that he’s tenacious, quick as hell, can break people down, and has elite athleticism, but I’ve only seen him in NBA action in a 40-point blowout. It’s hard for me to compare him to a guy like Brandon Jennings at this point – Flynn is playing in a modified triangle, with a rebuilding team that has no quality wings and been dealing with injuries to its two quality bigs, while Jennings has been afforded the opportunity to be a playmaker in a more traditional offense on a team that has its sights set on a playoff berth. Still, I felt Flynn was a sure thing before this draft and haven’t heard/seen anything that suggests otherwise. The fact he’s relegated Ramon Sessions to backup duty has to be a good sign.

Stephen Curry

6 games: 10.6 PTS/36, 44.5 (!) 3P%, 4.6 TRB%, 24.4 AST%, 19.9 TOV%, 10.5 PER.

Chris Paul was right. Steph can play the point. His father was one of the best pure shooters the game has ever seen and, watching Steph at Davidson, we knew he’d inherited this skill. What we didn’t know for sure, though, with the way he was forced to carry the team’s offense and deal with triple teams most nights, was that he could create for others so well. On a team full of scorers, he stands out as a guy who cares about drawing defenders and finding the open man, a guy who’s willing to distribute the ball. The Warriors are fucked right now, but everybody loves him. Even Monta Ellis has praised him, despite the fact he was spot-on when he said they couldn’t share the backcourt without getting abused on the defensive end. I’m beyond sick of Don Nelson, but I can’t stop tuning in to watch this team now that they have approximately 1000 players I love to watch.

Marcus Thornton/Darren Collison

Stats omitted because they’ve been stapled to the bench.

They’re the two best players in the NBA! Okay, perhaps that’s going a little far, but Lil Buckets and Lil Dimes can play. They don’t deserve to be buried on the bench behind Bobby and Devin Brown (despite what Devin did last night). New Orleans actually made fine picks in the draft this year and it’s frustrating as hell to watch them sit on the bench while 1s and 2s not named Chris Paul brick jumper after jumper. I thought Collison could be a huge sleeper, with his intelligence and his ability to play both ends of the floor, and was thrilled on draft night when the Hornets had found a proper backup for Paul. He can still be that guy, if Byron Scott lets it happen. Thornton, on the other hand, was a surprise to me. He put his sweet stroke on display in pre-season and deserves more opportunities now that the regular season has started. He’ll sometimes have bad shooting nights (like last night), but should we really be deprived of getting to see what he can do because the 2009-2010 versions of D. Brown, Posey, and Mo Pete want to be out there? Only if you don’t want Hornets fans to smile.

Ty Lawson

7 games: 18.3 PTS/36, 64.8 TS%, 5.9 TRB%, 21.8 AST%, 11.5 TOV%, 21.2 PER.

Another fucking point guard? Yes! And I’m not apologizing for this. We’ve got a solid group of point guards in this draft class and I’m not even mentioning Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, or Rodrigue Beaubois in this thing. Anyway, the Nugs knew that advanced stats revealed Lawson to be an absolute stud in college. Plus, we knew just by watching him that this NCAA champion is more than capable of running an offense as well as getting his own shot. His ability to get in the lane translates perfectly to today’s NBA. He’s immediately become one of the best backup point guards in the league, picking up the pace as soon as he enters games and becoming a real problem for opposing teams that have a ton of other problems to deal with when facing Denver. He’s even been used in tandem with Chauncey Billups, which makes me incredibly happy for reasons I shouldn’t have to explain. The rich got richer, here.

Chase Budinger

5 games: 22.4 PTS/36, 62.1 TS%, 8.9 TRB%, 12.9 AST%, 10.5 TOV%, 21 PER.

I didn’t think Budinger would be much of an NBA player, but when the Rockets drafted him, I kept my mouth shut until I saw him play at this level. When I did, I realized for the 947241328th time that Daryl Morey is a lot smarter than me. The 44th pick in this year’s draft is doing what Joe Alexander was supposed to do after the Bucks selected him 8th last year. Already, he’s demonstrated his ability to hit shots, make great passes, play more-than-competent defense, and, um, not at all seem like a rookie. He fits perfectly on this Rockets team that is devoid of All-Stars but full of guys who do the little things correctly. Methinks the fact that his stock dropped so dramatically over the course of his college career was actually good for him, keeping him focused on improving his fundamentals and NBA skills rather than relying on his leaping ability. This isn’t the white Gerald Green, people. I just wish the guys who do the ratings for NBA 2K10 would figure that out soon.

James Harden

6 games: 11.9 PTS/36, 43.3 TS%, 33.5 (!) AST%, 8.6 TRB%, 5.3 TOV%, 14.7 PER.

Possessing the best rookie beard I can remember and a sweet shooting stroke, Harden has fit right in with the young Thunder squad. Anyone who knows me is aware of my affinity for his team, despite the indefensible bullshit that led to its existence. He’s coming off the bench behind defensive stopper Thabo Sefolosha and, admittedly, he hasn’t put up fantastic numbers (besides those assists) at this point. I see greatness (or at least very goodness) in him, though, and he’s an absolutely perfect fit with this team. I know I wasn’t the only one who dreamed of Ricky Rubio playing alongside Kevin Durant, but with Westbrook averaging over 8 assists a game and Harden seeming like an ideal guy to knock down shots against defenses focused on his explosive teammates, it’s hard to argue against Sam Presti on this one.