AP Photo / Nick Wass

Recorded on Thursday (my apologies for the late posting), we start off all pissed off with Colin Cowherd’s ignorant comments about John Wall. Then, we get to Andrea Bargnani and the Raptors, Steve Nash and the Suns, the Joakim Noah/KG thing, Paul Millsap’s awesomeness, the public perception of Kevin Durant, and our weekly features.

It’s just Julian, Wagman, and I this time. John was sick. Get better, John.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

Note: Julian dares to say “schadenfreude” out loud at one point. None of us were sure about the pronunciation.

…and if you missed the Joakim Noah at-home interview with ESPN from back in October, here ya go:

David Liam Kyle/Getty Images

Just two games on the sched, Tuesday night, and I only watched one of them. This doesn’t feel right, and neither does being done with writing by 1:00 AM. A much quicker BfB than normal as we hit the halfway mark of the season.

Cavaliers 108, Raptors 100

• “Conflicted” doesn’t even properly capture how I felt watching LeBron James in this game. Generally, when I watch players I love up against the Raptors, I’m simultaneously rooting for them to do well and for the Raptors to win. It’s weird – things get tricky when it’s a close game and a favourite of mine on the opposing team makes a big play. With LeBron, it’s weird every time I watch him anyway. I feel privileged to watch him as he makes breathtaking plays, and then I get angry as he needlessly hoists up three-pointers. As Twitter favourite Noam Schiller pointed out, LeBron’s shot selection was plain stupid at times. He could score whenever he wanted to on drives or post-ups, but he chose to bail the Raptors out with jumpers on numerous occasions. As a Raptors fan, I was hoping he would jack shots because I knew my team couldn’t stop him otherwise. As a LeBron fan, I wanted to yell, “do that every time!” when he scored around the rim. Every missed jumper had me instinctively frustrated and then thinking, “well, at least the Raptors have a chance.” Unfortunately, the Raps didn’t capitalize on those chances.

• One reason why: Chris Bosh disappeared down the stretch. This bothered me because of the stage: a nationally televised game with essentially no NBA competition. People who don’t watch every Raptors game will have seen this and assumed that this is who Chris Bosh is. After an unbelievable start to the game, he missed his last two field goal attempts in the first half and then went just 2-6 in the second half, almost entirely on jump shots. In the whole game, he only shot 3-4 from the line (he averages 9.2 FTA’s). I feel guilty criticizing Bosh at all with how amazing he’s been all season, but I can’t let him off the hook here. Sure, his coach and his teammates should have made more of an effort to feature him. Sure, he can’t be expected to do it all by himself. But he’s got to demand the ball and he’s got to be aggressive when his team needs a bucket. That doesn’t mean no jump shots – if his man is playing off him, I want him to take the J because he’s so damn good at it. I still don’t think 4 free throw attempts is acceptable, though. And I don’t think franchise players should be held to just 5 points in the second half very often.

• Marco Belinelli and Hedo Turkoglu are going to take years off of my life. I’ve seen both of them at various times described as having “high basketball IQ” but I think that’s basically because they’re European and are good at passing. Seriously, they take some of the most maddening shots I’ve ever seen. Sometimes, they go in. Other times, you know as soon as it leaves their hands that there’s no chance. And I haven’t even mentioned the defensive end of the floor… K, I’m not a hater, I’ll stop there.

• I don’t want to hate on Jay Triano either, for a couple of reasons. First, no one should expect Toronto to beat Cleveland in Cleveland. Second, I think .500 is an acceptable place to be right now with the Raptors’ roster and tough early-season schedule. But, again, I have to complain a bit. I just can’t see the logic for keeping both Jarrett Jack and DeMar DeRozan on the bench for the entire fourth quarter. DeMar was fantastic, scoring 14 points on 10 shots and showing the same aggressiveness that was there against the Knicks the other day. I have learned not to expect his good early minutes to be rewarded with fourth quarter burn, but his play in this one had me hopeful. No dice. Now, Jack: the man started at point guard and scored 11 points on 6 shots, but played less than 22 minutes. I haven’t been a huge fan of the duel point guard lineup that’s received a lot of crunch time minutes for the Raptors this season, but against Mo Williams and Delonte West I’m cool with it. There’s also the fact that Jose Calderon failed to play the same type of ball we’d seen from him in his past couple of games. He missed shots I assumed he would make and he lost Mo Williams on a couple of occasions. I wouldn’t have been mad if he was sent to the bench along with Marco and Hedo.

• Positivity: Antoine Wright was very good for Toronto on both ends. This man took a lot of shit earlier this season, at least online, and I’ll admit that much of it was deserved. In this game, he produced just fine in his 23:49 of action: 12 pts (5-8 FG, 1-1 3PT, 1-3 FT), 5 reb (1 off.), 1 TO. This, while putting in more than respectable work against LeBron on the other end.

• Speaking of LeBron, that guy who I blasted just a few bullet points ago… He barely missed a trip dub: 28 pts (8-18 FG, 0-7 3PT (!), 12-14 FT), 9 reb, 11 ast, 3 blk, 3 stl, 3 TO in 41 minutes. The man is incredible, right?

• Mo Williams had one of his best games of the season. Check the line: 22 pts (7-15 FG, 4-8 3PT, 4-4 FT), 3 reb, 10 (!) ast, 4 TO in 37:37. He remains terrifying to me when he’s left open, but Cleveland fans know his shot has been inconsistent at best. Especially in the last two weeks. On nights like this, when he is hitting his shots AND piling up assists (he averages only 5 a game), Cleveland is going to win the vast majority of the time. And they did here, even though I don’t think the team played very impressive basketball on the whole.

Heat 113, Pacers 83

• I recorded this game and intended to watch it following Raps/Cavs, but the final score is just gross. I asked the internet if it was worth my time and this is what Jared Wade said: “Don’t bother. Flash had 18 in the first. Other than that? Huge waste of time.”

• I feel bad for Pacers fans. They start games terribly so freaking often. Sometimes, they make a run and make things exciting. Against the Raptors and Suns recently, they had huge comeback victories. This time? They were down by 17 after the first and they were outscored in each of the following quarters.

• Some efficient stat lines to look at: Dwyane Wade had 32 points on 20 shots in 31 minutes. Michael Beasley had 21 (on 15 shots) and 10 rebounds, but it took him 40 minutes. Brandon Rush, with his sub-50 TS%, remarkably finished with 17 points (on 10 shots) along with 10 rebounds in 36 minutes.

• Again, I feel bad for Pacers fans.

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

Pre-season predictions are a bit of a fool’s game. Whenever you go back and look at them at the end of a season, you realize the prognosticator went horribly wrong in more than one place. Always, always, always you find that there are a few injuries and trades that completely change the landscape of the league. But I’ve gone ahead and done them anyway.

Eastern Conference

1. Orlando (65-17)
Turkoglu, Rafer, Lee, and Battie for Vince, Jameer, Bass, Barnes, and Anderson? Unreal. And they made it to the finals last year. This team is ludicrously talented and can handle an injury at any position.

2. Cleveland (64-18)
Almost want to give them more than this. A fantastic team last year and they’ve replaced Ben Wallace with Shaq, Wally Szczerbiak with Parker, and Sasha Pavlovic with Moon. Each is a huge upgrade.

3. Boston (54-28)
Love Sheed/Daniels. Disappointed they gave up Powe.Can’t give them 60 because I don’t believe K.G. is what he was.

4. Washington (42-40)
Wanted to rank them higher, but how are they going to stop anybody? Plus, with this Jamison injury, it seems like they’re fucking cursed or something.

4. Atlanta (42-40)
They’re a better team than last year, but so are a lot of teams. Thus, the record drops a bit. Only way they leap up is if they get more out of Marvin Williams and Josh Smith.

6. Chicago (41-41)
Deng, Salmons and Miller for a full year? Good. Losing Ben Gordon? Bad. Ceiling is much higher but I don’t trust VDN.

6. Miami (41-41)
I feel a bit uneasy with this pick – if they just emphasize Beasley more, they should get more wins. Not confident in J.O. at the 5 spot anymore, though. Wish I was.

8. Toronto (40-42)
They’re better, mostly because Jose will be healthy but also because the bench is much stronger with Nesterovic, Jack, and Johnson. Turk will make the offense much better, but it’s not great to have another poor defender playing heavy minutes. If they hit the 50-win mark Bryan Colangelo’s talked about, Jay Triano deserves to be the first Canadian NBA Coach of the Year.

8. Philly (40-42)
One less than last year. Losing Andre Miller hurts, but Eddie Jordan’s system will mitigate some of that. If Brand’s back to 20/10, this total will be higher and my fantasy team will be amazing.

10. Detroit (38-42)
I like Kuester and can’t wait to see what this team is like on offense. Offense is only half the game, though. High on Will Bynum here, but Stuckey is Dumars’s guy.

11. Indiana (34-48)
Last year’s rookies should be very effective, but Hibbert needs to learn not to foul. They would have improved had they not significantly downgraded at each key bench spot.

11. Milwaukee (34-48)
I just can’t see Skiles’s bunch any lower than this. Realize they’ve lost Sessions, Villanueva, and Jefferson, but they also didn’t have Redd or Bogut for the majority of last season. They’ll be scrappy and they’ll beat teams they shouldn’t.

13. New York (31-51)
They don’t really have 31-win talent, but I dig D’Antoni. He got ‘em to to 32 last year, somehow, and I can’t justify a big drop with a healthy Gallinari.

14. New Jersey (26-56)
Patience, Nets fans. They’re on the right track. It’s just not enough yet, unless Terrence Williams has a ROY-type season. They’ve got the two most important positions in the game locked up, though.

15. Charlotte (24-52)
They’re really, really trying to make the playoffs, but it’s not happening. Chandler’s not who he was, Diaw’s out of shape, and Raja Bell just got hurt. Larry Brown and most of the roster will be absolutely miserable in a couple of weeks and it’ll stay like that for most of the year. Love D.J Augustin, though.

Note on the East: Yup, that’s a tie for the last spot in the playoffs, with 2 games separating 4th from 9th and 8th from 10th. As I’ve said before, the East will be interesting in April.

Western Conference

1. Lakers (63-19)
If Artest picks his spots on the offensive end like he has never done before, they could hit 70. But he’s never done that before. Bynum may have an All-Star season, but I’m a bit scared of Ron-Ron disrupting that beautiful offense. Still, I’d pick ‘em to repeat.

2. San Antonio (55-27)
Jefferson and McDyess are amazing acquisitions, but Manu’s health is the most important thing for the Spurs. Hope RJ is content with more corner 3’s and less isolations than he’s ever had in his life, ‘cause that’s what is needed here. Absolutely a title contender if everyone holds up.

3. Portland (54-28)
I dropped Denver’s record below even though I expect them to sustain their play. With Portland, they’ll improve, but it won’t show up in their record. Don’t pay attention to anything anybody’s saying about Andre Miller right now, unless you think he’s worse than Sergio Rodriguez.

4. Dallas (51-31)
Using Nobel Peace Prize logic here – they could be great or they could be awful, but I’m going to be optimistic and pencil them in for a 50+ season before it starts. They’ve got so much talent that I don’t care about bigger teams bullying them. Expect Gooden and Dampier to be exchanged for superior players before the deadline.

5. Denver (50-32)
I like Lawson and Afflalo more than I like Dahntay and Kleiza, but it’s going to be awfully tough to match last year’s win total.

5. Utah (50-32)
Boozer’s back. Weird, huh? ~32 minutes a game for him, Millsap, and Okur, I guess. You know how these guys have been for the past couple of years, right? They’ll be like that.

5. New Orleans (50-32)
Last year’s team shouldn’t have won as much as they did, with that putrid bench. That bench has been upgraded for this go-round but it’s going to be really tough to get extra wins in the West, even with another MVP-level season from Chris Paul.

8. Phoenix (42-40)
I’m counting on a good 82 games from Steve Nash, Grant Hill, and Amar’e Stoudemire landing them the 8th seed. Wait a minute, what have I done?

9. Clippers (40-42)
If it wasn’t for Dunleavy, I’d have them in the playoffs. Really solid group of players on this team, but will it perform at the standard of the sum of its parts?

10. Houston (36-46)
I’m going to watch them play as many games as possible, but the majority of these will be losses. They’ll run teams up and down the court and they’ll defend them hard. They just don’t have the scoring punch to make the playoffs in the West.

11. Oklahoma City (30-52)
I’m rooting for them 80 times a year. Absolutely love their core, but their bigs are Krstic, Collison, Etan Thomas, B.J. Mullens (he’s going to have to earn “Byron”), Serge Ibaka, and D.J. White. The big leap will happen, but we’ll have to wait a bit.

12. Minnesota (28-54)
It’s going to take a while to learn Rambis’s modified triangle, plus Kevin Love is out for the beginning of the season. Their wings suck, but they’ve got great young guys in the frontcourt and at the point guard spot. I like their future, but they’re going to lose a lot of games.

13. Memphis (26-56)
I’d put them right at the bottom if I was ranking these teams in terms of entertainment value. Could have the least assists of any team in NBA history, but there’s legitimate talent here that keeps them out of the cellar. Unfortunately.

14. Golden State (24-58)
This saddens me. This fucking saddens me. Randolph and Morrow need to be set free. There’s so much damn talent here, but it’s all such a mess and Nellie hates defense. I hope I’m wrong, but I see this year being a spectacular failure. See that? I didn’t even mention Stephen Jackson!

15. Sacramento (15-67)
Yay, Tyreke Evans! Now, back to being completely shit.

Note on the West: See the big drop-off before the 8th playoff spot? That’s the inspiration for the series I’ve started writing. Phoenix, Houston, and maybe Oklahoma City coming soon.

Wagman went through and did playoff predictions, too. You can call me a pussy (he did), but I’m not going to do that until the regular season’s over. Once you have two good teams playing against each other, it’s a different game. The differences are less to do with overall talent and much more to do with match-ups and, to some degree, coaching. When we get there, I’ll check back in. The Lakers have still got to be the favourites to win it all, but… it’s October 24th.

Ah yes a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, but I figured I’d get a head start. Optimism is running wild in Toronto, but there are a few pitfalls that Raptors Nation is overlooking.

First, while Jay Triano is a highly respected international coach, he is a rookie NBA head coach. The NBA game and the European game are very different (see: United States Men’s basketball teams in 2002 and 2004). Jay has never led a pro training camp. He’s never developed the battle plan for an NBA season. He’s never managed the ego and minutes of 15 grown whiny, selfish babies for an entire season. He’s never really dealt with media criticism. He also has a key new face as an assistant coach. Marc Iavaroni was a highly, highly respected defensive-minded assistant coach with Phoenix. Then he bombed out as a head coach. How will he react to what effectively is a demotion? He’s now behind a maturing head coach. Again. This is the same place his career was 7 years ago when D’Antoni was hired in Phoenix. Will he demand the same respect in the room that he had? The other difficulty Jay has is implementing a system. In Toronto it’s a blank slate with so many new players. The blank slate can work out in either really good or really bad ways; totally depending on how it is used by the coach, and how it is accepted by the players. Will Jay, a rookie coach, be able to capture a team made up of some fairly veteran players? Will he and Iavaroni be able to come up with a defensive scheme that can hide Hedo Turkoglu completely? That will help out Jose Calderon? Will he be able to teach Demar DeRozan to adapt to the NBA game quick enough to be a presence on the floor?

These are just some of the problems the Raptors face. They’ve got a rookie at the 2, a defensively-challenged player at the 3, and a question mark at the 5. Bargnani developed nicely towards the end of last year, but this summer with the Italian team his progress seemed to stagnate. He isn’t good defensively (although he was showing improvement last season), and will be asked to carry a large load this year without Jermaine O’Neal to hide behind. He should benefit from playing one position all year, but will the team benefit out of it? Hedo Turkoglu, like Bargs, is a good offensive player. No-one doubts that. With Orlando last year he hit some monster shots, and generally was one of Orlando’s best players. That’s nothing to sneeze at. That said, defensive problems can be masked when you have Dwight Howard behind you. Offensive problems can be hidden much the same way. Turkoglu is 30 and isn’t exactly an ‘athlete’ by NBA standards. He had five dunks last year. He came from a team with one all world player, 1 all star, and a point guard who embarrassed Jose Calderon when the two clubs met up two years ago. As for DeRozan, yes he had a good final four last year. But look at his numbers from the whole season. Sure there was improvement, but he didn’t exactly blow people out of the water for the first half of the year. In fact, he didn’t do a lot of anything for the first 2-3 months of the season. The adjustment from college to the NBA is a much tougher transition than the transition from high school to college (especially considering that jump for him was from Compton High to USC, or a trip of about 22 minutes by car). How is he going to handle being on his own? How is he going to handle the responsibilities of being a man both on and off the court? How is he going to handle being asked to defend the Wades and Kobes of the world? Is too much being put on the young man’s plate at once? He’s shown himself to have a good attitude and seems to have all the tools, but asking a 20-year-old to put everything together for his first NBA game, or even season, is a bit much. He is very much a raw talent still.

The bench appears to be a source of strength for the Raptors, but looks can be deceiving. Jarrett Jack deserves minutes. Marco Belinelli and Amir Johnson need minutes to improve, as they are young and talented. Rasho Nesterovic and Reggie Evans were both good pickups for depth, but Rasho is getting up there in years. And while Reggie Evans gives 110% every time he’s on the floor, he just isn’t that skilled a ball player. Let’s take a look at last year’s stats – His rebounding rate is an outstanding 19.0% (meaning he grabs 19% of the available rebounds when he’s on the floor), but he has a turnover rate of 21.3% and a TS% of 51.4%, both of which are absolutely horrible for a big man. The man had a PER of only 10.4 and, considering the weight PER gives to rebounds, that is a red flag. You don’t need advanced statistics to understand Reggie’s limitations, though. Watch him play for just a few minutes and you will see a guy who stands out for his aggressive play, but is a liability on both offense and defense. He misses easy put-backs, fouls unnecessarily, and tries to do things he can’t do. I love the effort he brings and hope it’s contagious, but he can’t really be on the floor for longer than 10-12 minutes a game.

Sure the bench also has Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Quincy Douby, but realistically if the Raptors are counting on them for anything more than mop up duty, we’re all in a heap of trouble. The question facing Jay is how do you get the young guys minutes, while allowing the vets to play an important role (something all successful teams need) and keep everyone happy? Can you play Evans minutes that cripple the offense, even if he earns them through hard practices? What if Belinelli proves that Don Nelson was right to bury him on the bench in Golden State? Quincy Douby showed promise in summer league, but that’s meaningless. Amir Johnson has been in the league 4 years, and still hasn’t come close to this massive potential he is sitting on. The kid is loaded with talent, but it’s been 4 years and he hasn’t been able to put it together. After learning from Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Antonio McDyess, maybe the question shouldn’t be WHEN he is going to put it together, but rather WHY he hasn’t thus far. If he doesn’t get consistent (and stop fouling so much) soon, suddenly the bench is counting on the offensively challenged Evans, the elder statesman of Rasho, and the enigma of Patrick O’Bryant. Eep.

Additionally, if Belinelli, DeRozan, and Wright all prove to be unable to start at the 2 guard, suddenly the Raptors may be facing a situation where backup PG Jarrett Jack needs to do so. He proved to be capable at the 2 last season in Indiana, and there are advantages to having two floor generals on the court at once, but this is not ideal in all situations. Against bigger 2s, Jack is overmatched. His good defensive instincts can’t compensate for the fact that he’s only 6’3 and 200 pounds.

Moreover, in the NBA, all good teams have a go-to guy. I’m talking about guys who can carry a team to a win when everyone else is having an off night. Granted the Raptors have Bosh but, and I say this as both a Bosh and Raptors fan, how many times in the past 4 years has Bosh lifted the Raptors on his shoulders and carried the club to a win? What about Jose or Bargs? How many times did Hedo lift Orlando to wins? The Raptors just don’t have ‘that’ guy who can create his own shot and score at will. It’s been a hole since Carter left and it continues to be a hole today.

Health is also an issue. We saw what a hampered Jose meant to the Raptors in the wins/loss column, even though his individual stats were still pretty good. I know Jose took the summer off and is in perfect health now, but what if Jose misses time again? Or picks up a lingering injury? Sure that can be said of most teams starting point guards, but on the Raptors, a team that seems to be based on ball movement, that impact is much more profound. Jose is the captain of the ship, without him they’re rudderless. Then there’s Bosh. Bosh has been pushing himself HARD this off season, adding over 20 pounds of muscle. This seems like a good thing, until you remember that’s not Bosh’s body type. His body was never intended to pack on too much weight, and sometimes bulk can be a hindrance. We haven’t seen how this will impact his movement; will his post moves be slower? Will his shot be the same? What about his overall speed, one of his best attributes. Will he be able to run the court the same? And what if Bosh picks up a nick or two (as has been known to happen?). Bosh won’t want to sit and watch in a contract year; he will play unless he is physically unable to. Even if that means playing worse than he should. We also can’t forget with age comes increased probability of injury. The Raptors have a few guys who are up there in years: Jose, Evans, Rasho and Hedo are all over 28 and have fairly considerable miles on their bodies. An injury to any of those would have a pretty negative impact on the club.

Then there’s the opposition. Where do the Raptors fit in the East? The top 3 are still Orlando, Cleveland, Boston (in that order until proven otherwise it says here). Chicago looked very, very good at tiems last year and should only improve this year; especially if someone can find some electrodes to bring Luol Deng back to life. Detroit brought in Charlie V and Ben Gordon, plus Chris Wilcox to address some frontcourt problems. Washington is getting back Gilbert Arenas, plus got a number of very serviceable parts in the (now very, very one sided) trade of the 5th overall pick. Miami is still Miami. KG may have said it, but if any athlete truly embodies the “Anything is possible!” statement it’s Dwayne Wade. Beasley should improve this year too, which will help Wade, since he’s basically been a lone wolf for the past few seasons. Atlanta kept things together and also should have their young guys getting better. Charlotte looked pretty good towards the end of last season and with continuity they should improve their record. The Raptors are in the mix with all those teams, plus Philly and Indiana. With only five playoff spots available after the big 3, can we say with any certainty today that the Toronto Raptors are a lock for the playoffs? Well considering the Raptors today have never played a meaningful game together, I’d say no. Can I be proven wrong? Sure. I hope I am. But a playoff run would necessitate a lot of things going right for the Raptors and a lot of things going wrong for other clubs. So in the immortal words of The Wolf, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks just yet gentlemen.

Ah yes, a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, so I’m going to embrace the optimism. To those who know me, this is no surprise; optimism is practically my middle name. But this year just FEELS different for some reason. The Raptors have almost completely remade their team. With a new coach, new philosophy, new feel overall.

I firmly believe confidence is the most underrated intangible in sports. When teams get on a roll, each win seems to build on the last. That confidence allows for clarity in the last seconds of a chaotic game. It allows for proper plays to be run and shots to be taken properly, not rushed. Panic is the enemy of any coach. One of the biggest problems in the past for the Raptors was a lack of confidence. Of swagger. At the end of close games, particularly last year, you could feel the anxiety on the bench. Not a good look for a winner. So, why should this year be any different? Well, the Raps have a few things to build confidence around.

Firstly there’s Jay Triano. I’m an unabashed Smitch fan. I loved the intensity he brought to every game, to every play. I love how he expected the best out of every player in uniform and anything less would get your ass parked on the bench. That said, he wasn’t the greatest X’s and O’s guy. The lack of a proper plan on both offense and defense lead directly to many of the losses we encountered last year. Granted Smitch was gone by December, but unfortunately for Jay, it’s tough to implement a new philosophy mid-season. There just isn’t the practice time to change bad habits. This year, Jay is working with a blank slate. He has a defensive wizard to help him out (Iavaroni), and the confidence of being entrusted with helping prep the future Dream Teamers. Jay’s learned from the best, from Coach K to Jim Boeheim and Mike D’Antoni. Now, with a full training camp, he gets to pass everything he’s learned on to the Raptors, and frankly I’m excited to see what the guy can do. He’s definitely much more of a players’ coach, he’s good with the X’s and O’s and he brings a calmness to the bench. No matter what happens, he is in control. For the players on the court, that’s big. The player can look over to the bench and feed off that calmness, and that should translate into less panic on the court.

Next on the docket: the players who will be learning from Jay. One of the bonuses of the total remodelling of a franchise is that all bad habits are GONE. Everyone is starting fresh, everyone is on the same page. That’s one BIG good thing. The second is when you replace Jason Kapono with DeMar DeRozan, you get a huge upgrade all over the court. DeRozan was a decent defender and rebounder in college (I don’t think I need to mention his ups). Since then, all he’s done is add a ton of muscle and work his ass off in the practice gym. Bringing in Reggie Evans and Rasho Nesterovic are obviously a boost to the Raptors front court depth but their true value may be more in the intangible category. Every report out of Raptors training camp we’ve heard is how those two guys are forcing Bargnani to alter his game: to grow. They’re forcing him to work, to adapt, to bang, to fight on the court. We know about Bargnani’s emerging offensive prowess, but I’m looking for big things from him defensively. Hedo Turkoglu is not a good defender. There’s no two ways about it. Then again, before the JO trade the 3 was handled mostly by Jamario Moon. Nothing against Jamario, but if he is starting for your NBA team, missing the playoffs should not be coming as a surprise. Basically: if Turk can score 18+ points most games, the extra offense will make up for the step back on defense. Jose on the other hand is a mediocre defender who had a terrible year in 2008-2009. Last year, he was hampered with a bad hamstring (word on the street is it was an over 2-inch tear), which basically made it impossible for him to stay in front of his man. Having him back at full health is an improvement over last year defensively at the point. So the starting 5 overall loses some defense because of Hedo, but there should be improvement from within at the 1 and the 5. As far as rebounding goes, losing Shawn Marion is obviously painful to the team rebounding effort, especially when considering his replacement is Turk. But, remember they replaced the Parker/Kapono combo with DeRozan/Wright, plus replaced Voskuhl/Mensah-Bonsu with Nesterovic/Evans/Johnson. Time will tell, but I’d say with all these changes, it’s a wash or maybe a slight improvement on the boards. The wild card in that is DeRozan. He has the abilities, he just has to make the most of them.

And speaking of Rasho/Reggie/ Amir, the Raps’ 2nd unit is ready for war. With these guys, plus Wright, Jarret Jack, Sonny Weems, Patrick O’Bryant, Quincy Douby and Marco Belinelli coming off the bench, the Raptors have options. This group includes some good defenders and rebounders. There’s some offense here, as well. Jack proved to be a more than effective point guard last season. Amir Johnson is one of my favourite underrated players in the Association. He’s an athletic monster who goes hard every second he’s on the court. If there’s a loose ball near the hoop, watch out. He’s going up HARD. Rasho is Rasho, he has proved his worth over the years. All in all, I’ll go so far as to say the Raptors 2nd unit could be as strong as any in the Association. The bench’s main impact though will be at the end of games, in my opinion. I’m not sold on opponent’s FG% as a really great stat for one simple reason: a stop at the end of the game is worth more than a stop in the first quarter. The Raptors lost so many games in the last minute last year that it made my head and heart hurt. My liver didn’t talk to me for weeks after the season ended. If the Raptors now have the ability to sub in a few lockdown defenders for a big defensive stand, that is worth than a few extra wins this season. Especially when you pair this with the improved offense the Raptors bring to the court. The example I gave my cohort on this blog James was, say a team has in general a good defensive game. They give up in three quarters an average of 23 points against. But they blow up one quarter and give up 35 points. The opponent’s FG% might not be that bad, but that still would count in my book as a bad defensive game (for me, a defensive collapse in the 4th causing a loss is always going to be a bad game). Go check tape of the first Nets/Raptors game last year. Granted, the Nets played well in the 2nd half, but if Carter wasn’t left open not once but TWICE at the end of the game, the Raptors probably win. And by probably I mean almost certainly. In fact, I don’t want to talk about this. I feel sick again.

How can I make myself feel better…. oh yeah! The Raptors offense is, in a word: wow. Jose back at full health to distribute the ball; DeRozan flying all over the court, tracking down loose balls, throwing down dunks and generally slicing through the defense; Bosh with his newly developed size and desire to get to the post more; Bargnani with his continued growth from last year and the Turk impact to hit big shots and find open teammates make the Raptors starting 5 INCREDIBLY dangerous. All can shoot, all can pass, all can get to the basket. If any team tries to double team any single Raptor, watch out. These guys can and will find an open man, and he can and will make the right shots and passes. The bench gives numerous different looks as well. Amir Johnson is a beast around the basket offensively (youtube him – if you’ve never really watched him before, get ready to fall in love, Toronto). Belinelli can shoot and is an underrated ball handler. Jack is worthy of being a starting 1 or 2 on some teams. He can handle the ball, he can shoot, he can get into traffic in the lane, he’s tenacious, he wants to win, and he’s a natural leader. The sky is honestly the limit for this club on offense. I don’t have anything else to say about it. It should be a masterpiece.

That is the biggest reason the Raptors will be amongst the top tier of the Eastern Conference this year. The Raptors, unlike most teams, and unlike what conventional wisdom or any basketball coach worth his salt would normally say, can win giving up over 100 points a game. Why? Because the Raptors can score 110 a game and not blink. The team is almost impossible to defend. They will shoot a high percentage. They have guys who will fight and scrap for loose balls. They have lockdown defenders and veteran leaders on the bench, they have a healthy Jose Calderon looking to rebound, and most importantly, they have Bosh. Bosh took last year as a personal insult. He wants to be the best. He wants to be the 3rd guy next summer in the Wade/LeBron talk. The only way for that to happen isn’t to improve his own stats (which are already pretty mind-blowing), but to improve the overall success of the team. Bosh needs to prove that he can lead a team to wins, to the playoffs, and beyond. If he wants to seriously be considered in the LeBron/Wade conversation there is no other way. Bosh knows this. He saw success coming from the post rather than the elbow, so he bulked up to stay healthy enough to bang under the hoop all year. He has 4 guys to pass the ball to who are dangerous players. And most importantly, the dirty secret of the Raptors this year: Bosh doesn’t need to carry the team to wins. If Bosh has an off night there are enough other weapons that can carry this club. Bosh won’t be counted on to break down defences as time winds down on the game clock now that Turk is around. Bosh won’t be forced to backup at center due to injuries, thanks to the depth that currently exists up front. He won’t be seeing as many double teams due to the overall firepower of the club (who gets left open – Jose? Bargnani? Turk? DeRozan?). All Bosh has to worry about this year is himself. So to recap: Healthy Jose, HIGHLY motivated Bosh, improved Bargnani, upgrade at EVERY SINGLE OTHER POSITION, except possibly defence and rebounding at the starting 3 (but improvement off the bench and in other spots).

So where are the extra wins to get the Raptors into the playoffs coming from? Well, the rest of the Eastern Conference may not be as strong as advertised when you look at it closely. Miami is counting on Jermaine O’Neal’s health this year (check his quotes – it’s freaking groundhog day for him) – any Raptors fan can tell Heat supporters how that’s going to go. Philadelphia got worse, Atlanta stayed the same, Boston has to seriously start looking at life without KG being KG (if they don’t have him at or near full strength, there’s no sugar-coating it, they will be much worse), the Knicks actually might have gotten worse (if that’s possible) and the Nets definitely did. In fact, the only teams that improved are Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington and Chicago. Charlotte’s improvement MIGHT net them the 8th seed, Orlando and Cleveland were already one and two in the east. So that means two teams in direct competition with the Raps improved, while 6 or 7 either stayed the same or got worse. Including potentially every team in the Raptors division. Even if the Raptors had thrown out the same line-up as last year, they’d probably improve by 2-3 spots, but they aren’t throwing out the same team. The Raptors are throwing out potentially the best offense in the entire Association. 4 more wins last year and the Raptors leapfrog Indiana, Charlotte, New Jersey and Milwaukee. All of whom got worse this offseason. 7 more wins and they leapfrog Detroit (who may or may not have jumped off a cliff this offseason) and make the playoffs.

I went through last season’s results and picked out some losses that don’t sit well with me. Last season, the Raptors lost 129-127 to New Jersey in OT (in a game that could arguably go down as the worst loss in franchise history); 98-97 to Portland. They lost to Detroit, Philly, New Orleans, New Jersey again (by 7), Golden State (by 6), Milwaukee by 10, Indiana by 7, Milwaukee AGAIN by 11, MEMPHIS by 8 (scoring 70 points), the Knicks by 30 (the freaking Knicks!), Detroit by 4 in OT, Charlotte by 13 and Charlotte by 26 back to back (!), the Knicks by 9, Indiana by 29, and Washington by 2. Theoretically, every one of those should be a win. Obviously teams lose games they should win all the time, but that right there is 19 games that could easily have been wins. If they had won 9, suddenly the Raptors were 42 and 40 and in the 6th spot.

Last year, the Raptors scored 99 PPG and allowed 102. Even if the team defence doesn’t improve from last year (and I think it will), the offense scoring 106+ points a game translates to wins. Pure and simple. Even if that’s only an extra 4 or 5 that they would have lost last year, add those with the loses that were games thrown away last year and suddenly the Raptors are looking at 46-47 wins and the 4th spot overall. Is it that easy? Absolutely it is. The competition got worse and the team got better. Good teams beat the teams that they should beat. This club is built to withstand injury. This club is built to score. And this club is being moulded right now into a team that can play passable defense. The injection of heart (guys like Evans and Rasho, plus the extra motivation of Jose and Bosh to prove to themselves and the world that they are among the best ballers in the world) and leadership also boost the intangible qualities of the club. With a little confidence and some swagger to go with it, the kind that can only come from seeing success and building on it, and this could be a team to fear. If they get on a roll, watch out. This is a good team, now they just have to prove it.