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July 3, 2009, Adrian Wojnarowski:

“Turkoglu had agreed on a five-year, $50 million deal with the Blazers, but changed his mind and is headed for a five-year, $53 million deal with the Raptors. Toronto would have to renounce three free agents – Shawn Marion, Carlos Delfino and Anthony Parker – to create the cap space for Turkoglu.”

This is a surprise, and I’m not happy. It’s not that Turkoglu is a bad player; it’s that I think this is a bad signing. He’s 30 already, was never really worth $10 million a year, and the thought of renouncing all the free agents and losing the right to use the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions makes me sick. Assuming everything goes forward as I expect it to, my home team will look like this:

PG: Jose Calderon, Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Chris Bosh, Reggie Evans, Kris Humphries
C: Andrea Bargnani, Patrick O’Bryant

Of course, that’s only 10 guys. 11 if you count guard Quincy Douby, who is on the team but has a contract is not guaranteed. The remainder of the roster must be filled with minimum salary players. And while it is certainly possible to Morey it, finding a rotation player with only a minimum deal at your disposal is a difficult thing to do.

The roster has gaping holes. Point guard depth, wing play, rebounding, and athleticism were lacking in 2008-2009. The only player I’d be comfortable calling a “good defender” here is the third-string point guard. As much as I love the DeMar DeRozan pick, I am terrified of counting on just him and minimum salary guys to fix all of this. Turkoglu represents an offensive upgrade over Shawn Marion, but downgrading in rebounding and defense makes little sense for this squad.

I don’t see this team making the playoffs and, if I’m right, I don’t see Chris Bosh wanting to stay in Toronto. And if I’m right about that, well… fuck. I don’t want to be right about that. He might be the best player this franchise has ever had and I can’t bear to see him leave as he approaches his prime. Blah.

July 9, 2009, Chad Ford & Marc Stein:

The Dallas Mavericks and Toronto Raptors, living up to the wild tenor of the past few weeks in the NBA, have hatched a complicated sign-and-trade arrangement that went through numerous constructions Wednesday before resulting in an agreement in principle that will send Shawn Marion to Dallas and absorb the Raptors’ much-anticipated signing of Hedo Turkoglu.

This is a surprise, and… wow. Memphis facilitated another big deal? Didn’t Otis Smith say he wouldn’t do a sign-and-trade? Antoine Wright’s coming, too? Devean George’s agent can’t nix this, right?

The deal means that the Raptors don’t have to renounce their free agents and they get to keep their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. Bryan Colangelo was prepared to fill the roster out with minimum salary guys, but now he doesn’t have to. Suddenly, the future isn’t quite so bleak. I still don’t like Turkoglu’s contract, but he can play. Anthony Parker’s rumoured to be headed to Cleveland, but he loves Toronto and maybe he’ll spurn them like Turk spurned Portland. Delfino’s a decent wing guy and it seems like he wants to come back. I’ve heard Rasho Nesterovic would probably take the bi-annual exception and this team could use his post defense. And there are a handful of players I’d love to sign with the mid-level.

I wonder if Colangelo had been trying to do this all along. It seems crazy that Orlando would help out an Eastern Conference rival like this for a trade exception they might not use. The Raptors have a chance to have a pretty good off-season now. Thank you to whoever gave BC this idea.

July 10, 2009, Dave Feschuk:

“After (the league) said yes … I said, `I’m stunned. This is the first time any of my crazy ideas have ever passed muster with you guys.’ I’ve had a lot of them over the years, `Can we possibly do this, this and this?’ And (the lawyers will) eventually find something to stop it. When they actually said yes, I was very surprised.” – Steve Fruitman

Here’s the guy I have to thank. Of course, it took number-crunching from four teams (five if you include the Chicago Bulls, the team that didn’t end up in the final version of the trade) and the man himself says that Bryan Colangelo “worked his tail off” to get it done, but it seems as if these talks would not have happened without a chartered accountant named Steve Fruitman.

It’s up to Colangelo now to use his newfound flexibility to fix some of the flaws I talked about. I’m very impressed that he got this done while dealing from a position of weakness after committing to Turkoglu, but this means nothing if the rest of the summer is, um, fruitless.

So, what happened between then and training camp?

The biannual exception, as expected, went to Rasho Nesterovic. The mid-level exception was used to sign his teammate from Indiana, Jarrett Jack. Bryan Colangelo was given the go-ahead to essentially buy Marco Belinelli from Golden State, sending Devean George and cash to the Bay Area. The Raptors couldn’t retain Anthony Parker, but they were able to sign Carlos Delfino and trade him and Roko Ukic to Milwaukee, in exchange for Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems. Here’s the Raptors’ roster heading into the season, again excluding Douby and his unguaranteed contract:

PG: Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Marcus Banks
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Marco Belinelli
SF: Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems
PF: Chris Bosh, Amir Johnson, Reggie Evans
C: Andrea Bargnani, Rasho Nesterovic, Patrick O’Bryant

Oct. 16, 2009, Kelly Dwyer:

“They can play. They can play solid ball on both ends, help teams, and most of all? They sop up minutes. And what most teams and fans fail to understand when a squad supposedly underachieves is that minutes don’t actually end with the two best players. They trickle all the way down.”

This quote isn’t actually about the 2009-2010 Raptors’ bench, but it may as well be. Not only are two of the players in question from Indiana’s 2008-2009 squad playing for the other side this evening at the Air Canada Centre and Tuesday at Conseco Fieldhouse, I see some parallels between these two clubs.

Last year’s Pacers were one of the league’s most fun teams to watch, even as a non-playoff team. They had the 3rd-fastest pace in the league and played in an abnormal number of close games. They were able to beat teams they probably shouldn’t, securing wins over the Celtics, Lakers, Magic, Cavaliers, and Nuggets. Obviously, it was great to see the continued ascendance of Danny Granger, who made his first All-Star team and won the Most Improved Player award. But even in losses, I always enjoyed the team as a whole, including the reserves. With injuries and role changes, I saw Jarrett Jack, T.J. Ford, Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert, Jeff Foster, Rasho Nesterovic, and Marquis Daniels both start and come off the bench. No matter the combination, the Pacers were worth my time.

Now, back to the Raptors. It’s been a season of highs and lows, but even when people were writing pieces like these and I agreed with them, I loved the bench.

Jan. 30, 2010, Holly MacKenzie:

Jay Triano on the difference between the first few months of the season and now: “We’ve gotten used to each other, where to play guys, what their strengths are. I also think our depth has been a major factor. If we’ve struggled with starts, our second unit has come in and played very well.”

Read that whole thing. Triano mentions Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, Antoine Wright, Rasho Nesterovic, Marco Belinelli, and Jarrett Jack. None of these guys would be here without that Fruitman-inspired four-way trade. All of them have contributed to the Raptors’ recent surge, which has led to people writing pieces like these.

I named Amir Johnson to my All-OTN Team because of his effort early in the season. If you catch a Raptors home game, pay attention to the crowd noise when he checks in and out of the game and you’ll see that the city has fallen in love with him, too. I don’t have much to add to what I wrote about him months ago – aside from Chris Bosh, you could make the case that he’s been the most consistent Raptor this season.

Sonny Weems has been a pleasant surprise. His effort and athleticism on the wing is similar to Johnson’s in the frontcourt. Can’t say he’s been an efficient scorer but he’s fantastic on the break and he’s an active defender. He’s found a role on this club and that’s not bad for a dude who only played 55 minutes all of last season. It’s worth noting that he and my rook DeMar DeRozan are best friends off the court and that he has a highly amusing pre-game dance routine. Seriously, it’s awesome. From the start of the pre-game introductions until the ball is tipped, he does his thing, with just a brief pause for a team huddle. I’ve been to a fair amount of games at the ACC this year and I have yet to get sick of this.

Antoine Wright had a horrific start to the year on the offensive end and I’d still advise you to stay away from his basketball-reference page. Still, he brought toughness and a commitment to defense and was a valuable guy to have in the locker room. Lately, he’s knocking down his open shots and not trying to do too much. I’m not quite ready to say he’s turned the corner, but his play has been encouraging. The Raps probably don’t get that win against Miami the other day if they don’t have Wright guarding Dwyane Wade in the fourth quarter.

You can check Rasho Nesterovic’s basketball-reference page because he has a hilariously awesome PER of 18.9. Unfortunately for Rasho, though, this is mostly a function of small sample size – he’s racked up 22 DNP-CD’s and his 8.9 minutes per game is by far the lowest of his career. As a fan of his heady, underrated game and the way he’s improved throughout his career, it disappoints me to see him riding the pine. I understand it, though – with the way Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, and Amir Johnson have been playing, it’s hard for Jay Triano to find minutes for Nesterovic. Still, the coach raves about him and you have to love his professionalism. He sits for a few games in a row and, when a matchup or foul trouble dictates that he gets some minutes, he produces. At 33 years of age, but he still has that soft touch, basketball IQ, and post defense. Let’s NBA… occasionally.

Marco Belinelli totally drives me crazy with the shots he takes. Lots of leaners, lots of fadeaways. Often contested, and often from behind the three point line. I’m not sure I’ll ever get completely comfortable with this, but I can’t deny he’s entertaining. Also, about half the times that I yell at him as he shoots, the ball goes in. I haven’t done a study on this, but I’m quite convinced that the difficulty of his shot attempts has no correlation at all with his success rate. He can be a terrific passer, too, which kind of makes up for the fact he’s a liability on D. Oh, and this probably could be a separate post, but there’s kind of a dearth of quality shooting guards in the NBA so having a bad defender at that spot on your bench isn’t that big of a deal.

Jarrett Jack has had the biggest impact of the Raptors’ off-season acquisitions and this is particularly satisfying to me because of the way the season started. For the first three weeks, he struggled to find his place as the team struggled to develop chemistry. His shot was not falling, his assist totals were inconsistent, and he didn’t provide the defensive upgrade Raptors fans were looking forward to. I absolutely loved the signing in the summer and now had to grit my teeth as the Raptors lost games and fans ripped him to shreds online. I still believed in him, but I was worried. He didn’t seem like the same player I had been watching for years. Now, though, all of that is a distant memory. Jarrett supplanted Jose Calderon as the starting point guard when he went down with an injury and even I, a long-time Calderon supporter, can’t argue for changing the rotation now that he’s back. The Raptors’ tear has coincided with Jack getting more minutes and becoming more comfortable with his teammates on the court. He has been doing a great job running the offense (he scripts plays!), getting to the basket, and being a leader. He’s playing his heart out, as he always has, and he’s developed a bond with Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, and DeMar DeRozan that has led Raptors Security Consultant Willis Richardson to dub them the Young Guns. Raptors fans love him now and I start twitching when I think about where the team would be without him.

And where is this team now? 25-22 heading into this Indiana game, good enough for 5th place in the Eastern Conference. They’re on a 4-game winning streak and they have the league’s 2nd-best record since December 18th. The offense? Elite. The defense? Much improved, even though the early-season incompetence still leaves them dead-last in defensive efficiency on the season. And the bench is producing. They’ve beaten the Cavaliers, Spurs, Magic, Mavericks, and Lakers, with all but that first one (opening night) coming in 2010. With a soft February schedule, the Raptors have a good chance of keeping this momentum going. People are legitimately excited about this team now and I love it. We have an honest-to-goodness entertaining team in this city, with guys who will hustle and can jump out of the gym. Raptors fans, enjoy this. While you’re at it, be very appreciative of Steve Fruitman.

Ah yes a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, but I figured I’d get a head start. Optimism is running wild in Toronto, but there are a few pitfalls that Raptors Nation is overlooking.

First, while Jay Triano is a highly respected international coach, he is a rookie NBA head coach. The NBA game and the European game are very different (see: United States Men’s basketball teams in 2002 and 2004). Jay has never led a pro training camp. He’s never developed the battle plan for an NBA season. He’s never managed the ego and minutes of 15 grown whiny, selfish babies for an entire season. He’s never really dealt with media criticism. He also has a key new face as an assistant coach. Marc Iavaroni was a highly, highly respected defensive-minded assistant coach with Phoenix. Then he bombed out as a head coach. How will he react to what effectively is a demotion? He’s now behind a maturing head coach. Again. This is the same place his career was 7 years ago when D’Antoni was hired in Phoenix. Will he demand the same respect in the room that he had? The other difficulty Jay has is implementing a system. In Toronto it’s a blank slate with so many new players. The blank slate can work out in either really good or really bad ways; totally depending on how it is used by the coach, and how it is accepted by the players. Will Jay, a rookie coach, be able to capture a team made up of some fairly veteran players? Will he and Iavaroni be able to come up with a defensive scheme that can hide Hedo Turkoglu completely? That will help out Jose Calderon? Will he be able to teach Demar DeRozan to adapt to the NBA game quick enough to be a presence on the floor?

These are just some of the problems the Raptors face. They’ve got a rookie at the 2, a defensively-challenged player at the 3, and a question mark at the 5. Bargnani developed nicely towards the end of last year, but this summer with the Italian team his progress seemed to stagnate. He isn’t good defensively (although he was showing improvement last season), and will be asked to carry a large load this year without Jermaine O’Neal to hide behind. He should benefit from playing one position all year, but will the team benefit out of it? Hedo Turkoglu, like Bargs, is a good offensive player. No-one doubts that. With Orlando last year he hit some monster shots, and generally was one of Orlando’s best players. That’s nothing to sneeze at. That said, defensive problems can be masked when you have Dwight Howard behind you. Offensive problems can be hidden much the same way. Turkoglu is 30 and isn’t exactly an ‘athlete’ by NBA standards. He had five dunks last year. He came from a team with one all world player, 1 all star, and a point guard who embarrassed Jose Calderon when the two clubs met up two years ago. As for DeRozan, yes he had a good final four last year. But look at his numbers from the whole season. Sure there was improvement, but he didn’t exactly blow people out of the water for the first half of the year. In fact, he didn’t do a lot of anything for the first 2-3 months of the season. The adjustment from college to the NBA is a much tougher transition than the transition from high school to college (especially considering that jump for him was from Compton High to USC, or a trip of about 22 minutes by car). How is he going to handle being on his own? How is he going to handle the responsibilities of being a man both on and off the court? How is he going to handle being asked to defend the Wades and Kobes of the world? Is too much being put on the young man’s plate at once? He’s shown himself to have a good attitude and seems to have all the tools, but asking a 20-year-old to put everything together for his first NBA game, or even season, is a bit much. He is very much a raw talent still.

The bench appears to be a source of strength for the Raptors, but looks can be deceiving. Jarrett Jack deserves minutes. Marco Belinelli and Amir Johnson need minutes to improve, as they are young and talented. Rasho Nesterovic and Reggie Evans were both good pickups for depth, but Rasho is getting up there in years. And while Reggie Evans gives 110% every time he’s on the floor, he just isn’t that skilled a ball player. Let’s take a look at last year’s stats – His rebounding rate is an outstanding 19.0% (meaning he grabs 19% of the available rebounds when he’s on the floor), but he has a turnover rate of 21.3% and a TS% of 51.4%, both of which are absolutely horrible for a big man. The man had a PER of only 10.4 and, considering the weight PER gives to rebounds, that is a red flag. You don’t need advanced statistics to understand Reggie’s limitations, though. Watch him play for just a few minutes and you will see a guy who stands out for his aggressive play, but is a liability on both offense and defense. He misses easy put-backs, fouls unnecessarily, and tries to do things he can’t do. I love the effort he brings and hope it’s contagious, but he can’t really be on the floor for longer than 10-12 minutes a game.

Sure the bench also has Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Quincy Douby, but realistically if the Raptors are counting on them for anything more than mop up duty, we’re all in a heap of trouble. The question facing Jay is how do you get the young guys minutes, while allowing the vets to play an important role (something all successful teams need) and keep everyone happy? Can you play Evans minutes that cripple the offense, even if he earns them through hard practices? What if Belinelli proves that Don Nelson was right to bury him on the bench in Golden State? Quincy Douby showed promise in summer league, but that’s meaningless. Amir Johnson has been in the league 4 years, and still hasn’t come close to this massive potential he is sitting on. The kid is loaded with talent, but it’s been 4 years and he hasn’t been able to put it together. After learning from Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Antonio McDyess, maybe the question shouldn’t be WHEN he is going to put it together, but rather WHY he hasn’t thus far. If he doesn’t get consistent (and stop fouling so much) soon, suddenly the bench is counting on the offensively challenged Evans, the elder statesman of Rasho, and the enigma of Patrick O’Bryant. Eep.

Additionally, if Belinelli, DeRozan, and Wright all prove to be unable to start at the 2 guard, suddenly the Raptors may be facing a situation where backup PG Jarrett Jack needs to do so. He proved to be capable at the 2 last season in Indiana, and there are advantages to having two floor generals on the court at once, but this is not ideal in all situations. Against bigger 2s, Jack is overmatched. His good defensive instincts can’t compensate for the fact that he’s only 6’3 and 200 pounds.

Moreover, in the NBA, all good teams have a go-to guy. I’m talking about guys who can carry a team to a win when everyone else is having an off night. Granted the Raptors have Bosh but, and I say this as both a Bosh and Raptors fan, how many times in the past 4 years has Bosh lifted the Raptors on his shoulders and carried the club to a win? What about Jose or Bargs? How many times did Hedo lift Orlando to wins? The Raptors just don’t have ‘that’ guy who can create his own shot and score at will. It’s been a hole since Carter left and it continues to be a hole today.

Health is also an issue. We saw what a hampered Jose meant to the Raptors in the wins/loss column, even though his individual stats were still pretty good. I know Jose took the summer off and is in perfect health now, but what if Jose misses time again? Or picks up a lingering injury? Sure that can be said of most teams starting point guards, but on the Raptors, a team that seems to be based on ball movement, that impact is much more profound. Jose is the captain of the ship, without him they’re rudderless. Then there’s Bosh. Bosh has been pushing himself HARD this off season, adding over 20 pounds of muscle. This seems like a good thing, until you remember that’s not Bosh’s body type. His body was never intended to pack on too much weight, and sometimes bulk can be a hindrance. We haven’t seen how this will impact his movement; will his post moves be slower? Will his shot be the same? What about his overall speed, one of his best attributes. Will he be able to run the court the same? And what if Bosh picks up a nick or two (as has been known to happen?). Bosh won’t want to sit and watch in a contract year; he will play unless he is physically unable to. Even if that means playing worse than he should. We also can’t forget with age comes increased probability of injury. The Raptors have a few guys who are up there in years: Jose, Evans, Rasho and Hedo are all over 28 and have fairly considerable miles on their bodies. An injury to any of those would have a pretty negative impact on the club.

Then there’s the opposition. Where do the Raptors fit in the East? The top 3 are still Orlando, Cleveland, Boston (in that order until proven otherwise it says here). Chicago looked very, very good at tiems last year and should only improve this year; especially if someone can find some electrodes to bring Luol Deng back to life. Detroit brought in Charlie V and Ben Gordon, plus Chris Wilcox to address some frontcourt problems. Washington is getting back Gilbert Arenas, plus got a number of very serviceable parts in the (now very, very one sided) trade of the 5th overall pick. Miami is still Miami. KG may have said it, but if any athlete truly embodies the “Anything is possible!” statement it’s Dwayne Wade. Beasley should improve this year too, which will help Wade, since he’s basically been a lone wolf for the past few seasons. Atlanta kept things together and also should have their young guys getting better. Charlotte looked pretty good towards the end of last season and with continuity they should improve their record. The Raptors are in the mix with all those teams, plus Philly and Indiana. With only five playoff spots available after the big 3, can we say with any certainty today that the Toronto Raptors are a lock for the playoffs? Well considering the Raptors today have never played a meaningful game together, I’d say no. Can I be proven wrong? Sure. I hope I am. But a playoff run would necessitate a lot of things going right for the Raptors and a lot of things going wrong for other clubs. So in the immortal words of The Wolf, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks just yet gentlemen.

Ah yes, a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, so I’m going to embrace the optimism. To those who know me, this is no surprise; optimism is practically my middle name. But this year just FEELS different for some reason. The Raptors have almost completely remade their team. With a new coach, new philosophy, new feel overall.

I firmly believe confidence is the most underrated intangible in sports. When teams get on a roll, each win seems to build on the last. That confidence allows for clarity in the last seconds of a chaotic game. It allows for proper plays to be run and shots to be taken properly, not rushed. Panic is the enemy of any coach. One of the biggest problems in the past for the Raptors was a lack of confidence. Of swagger. At the end of close games, particularly last year, you could feel the anxiety on the bench. Not a good look for a winner. So, why should this year be any different? Well, the Raps have a few things to build confidence around.

Firstly there’s Jay Triano. I’m an unabashed Smitch fan. I loved the intensity he brought to every game, to every play. I love how he expected the best out of every player in uniform and anything less would get your ass parked on the bench. That said, he wasn’t the greatest X’s and O’s guy. The lack of a proper plan on both offense and defense lead directly to many of the losses we encountered last year. Granted Smitch was gone by December, but unfortunately for Jay, it’s tough to implement a new philosophy mid-season. There just isn’t the practice time to change bad habits. This year, Jay is working with a blank slate. He has a defensive wizard to help him out (Iavaroni), and the confidence of being entrusted with helping prep the future Dream Teamers. Jay’s learned from the best, from Coach K to Jim Boeheim and Mike D’Antoni. Now, with a full training camp, he gets to pass everything he’s learned on to the Raptors, and frankly I’m excited to see what the guy can do. He’s definitely much more of a players’ coach, he’s good with the X’s and O’s and he brings a calmness to the bench. No matter what happens, he is in control. For the players on the court, that’s big. The player can look over to the bench and feed off that calmness, and that should translate into less panic on the court.

Next on the docket: the players who will be learning from Jay. One of the bonuses of the total remodelling of a franchise is that all bad habits are GONE. Everyone is starting fresh, everyone is on the same page. That’s one BIG good thing. The second is when you replace Jason Kapono with DeMar DeRozan, you get a huge upgrade all over the court. DeRozan was a decent defender and rebounder in college (I don’t think I need to mention his ups). Since then, all he’s done is add a ton of muscle and work his ass off in the practice gym. Bringing in Reggie Evans and Rasho Nesterovic are obviously a boost to the Raptors front court depth but their true value may be more in the intangible category. Every report out of Raptors training camp we’ve heard is how those two guys are forcing Bargnani to alter his game: to grow. They’re forcing him to work, to adapt, to bang, to fight on the court. We know about Bargnani’s emerging offensive prowess, but I’m looking for big things from him defensively. Hedo Turkoglu is not a good defender. There’s no two ways about it. Then again, before the JO trade the 3 was handled mostly by Jamario Moon. Nothing against Jamario, but if he is starting for your NBA team, missing the playoffs should not be coming as a surprise. Basically: if Turk can score 18+ points most games, the extra offense will make up for the step back on defense. Jose on the other hand is a mediocre defender who had a terrible year in 2008-2009. Last year, he was hampered with a bad hamstring (word on the street is it was an over 2-inch tear), which basically made it impossible for him to stay in front of his man. Having him back at full health is an improvement over last year defensively at the point. So the starting 5 overall loses some defense because of Hedo, but there should be improvement from within at the 1 and the 5. As far as rebounding goes, losing Shawn Marion is obviously painful to the team rebounding effort, especially when considering his replacement is Turk. But, remember they replaced the Parker/Kapono combo with DeRozan/Wright, plus replaced Voskuhl/Mensah-Bonsu with Nesterovic/Evans/Johnson. Time will tell, but I’d say with all these changes, it’s a wash or maybe a slight improvement on the boards. The wild card in that is DeRozan. He has the abilities, he just has to make the most of them.

And speaking of Rasho/Reggie/ Amir, the Raps’ 2nd unit is ready for war. With these guys, plus Wright, Jarret Jack, Sonny Weems, Patrick O’Bryant, Quincy Douby and Marco Belinelli coming off the bench, the Raptors have options. This group includes some good defenders and rebounders. There’s some offense here, as well. Jack proved to be a more than effective point guard last season. Amir Johnson is one of my favourite underrated players in the Association. He’s an athletic monster who goes hard every second he’s on the court. If there’s a loose ball near the hoop, watch out. He’s going up HARD. Rasho is Rasho, he has proved his worth over the years. All in all, I’ll go so far as to say the Raptors 2nd unit could be as strong as any in the Association. The bench’s main impact though will be at the end of games, in my opinion. I’m not sold on opponent’s FG% as a really great stat for one simple reason: a stop at the end of the game is worth more than a stop in the first quarter. The Raptors lost so many games in the last minute last year that it made my head and heart hurt. My liver didn’t talk to me for weeks after the season ended. If the Raptors now have the ability to sub in a few lockdown defenders for a big defensive stand, that is worth than a few extra wins this season. Especially when you pair this with the improved offense the Raptors bring to the court. The example I gave my cohort on this blog James was, say a team has in general a good defensive game. They give up in three quarters an average of 23 points against. But they blow up one quarter and give up 35 points. The opponent’s FG% might not be that bad, but that still would count in my book as a bad defensive game (for me, a defensive collapse in the 4th causing a loss is always going to be a bad game). Go check tape of the first Nets/Raptors game last year. Granted, the Nets played well in the 2nd half, but if Carter wasn’t left open not once but TWICE at the end of the game, the Raptors probably win. And by probably I mean almost certainly. In fact, I don’t want to talk about this. I feel sick again.

How can I make myself feel better…. oh yeah! The Raptors offense is, in a word: wow. Jose back at full health to distribute the ball; DeRozan flying all over the court, tracking down loose balls, throwing down dunks and generally slicing through the defense; Bosh with his newly developed size and desire to get to the post more; Bargnani with his continued growth from last year and the Turk impact to hit big shots and find open teammates make the Raptors starting 5 INCREDIBLY dangerous. All can shoot, all can pass, all can get to the basket. If any team tries to double team any single Raptor, watch out. These guys can and will find an open man, and he can and will make the right shots and passes. The bench gives numerous different looks as well. Amir Johnson is a beast around the basket offensively (youtube him – if you’ve never really watched him before, get ready to fall in love, Toronto). Belinelli can shoot and is an underrated ball handler. Jack is worthy of being a starting 1 or 2 on some teams. He can handle the ball, he can shoot, he can get into traffic in the lane, he’s tenacious, he wants to win, and he’s a natural leader. The sky is honestly the limit for this club on offense. I don’t have anything else to say about it. It should be a masterpiece.

That is the biggest reason the Raptors will be amongst the top tier of the Eastern Conference this year. The Raptors, unlike most teams, and unlike what conventional wisdom or any basketball coach worth his salt would normally say, can win giving up over 100 points a game. Why? Because the Raptors can score 110 a game and not blink. The team is almost impossible to defend. They will shoot a high percentage. They have guys who will fight and scrap for loose balls. They have lockdown defenders and veteran leaders on the bench, they have a healthy Jose Calderon looking to rebound, and most importantly, they have Bosh. Bosh took last year as a personal insult. He wants to be the best. He wants to be the 3rd guy next summer in the Wade/LeBron talk. The only way for that to happen isn’t to improve his own stats (which are already pretty mind-blowing), but to improve the overall success of the team. Bosh needs to prove that he can lead a team to wins, to the playoffs, and beyond. If he wants to seriously be considered in the LeBron/Wade conversation there is no other way. Bosh knows this. He saw success coming from the post rather than the elbow, so he bulked up to stay healthy enough to bang under the hoop all year. He has 4 guys to pass the ball to who are dangerous players. And most importantly, the dirty secret of the Raptors this year: Bosh doesn’t need to carry the team to wins. If Bosh has an off night there are enough other weapons that can carry this club. Bosh won’t be counted on to break down defences as time winds down on the game clock now that Turk is around. Bosh won’t be forced to backup at center due to injuries, thanks to the depth that currently exists up front. He won’t be seeing as many double teams due to the overall firepower of the club (who gets left open – Jose? Bargnani? Turk? DeRozan?). All Bosh has to worry about this year is himself. So to recap: Healthy Jose, HIGHLY motivated Bosh, improved Bargnani, upgrade at EVERY SINGLE OTHER POSITION, except possibly defence and rebounding at the starting 3 (but improvement off the bench and in other spots).

So where are the extra wins to get the Raptors into the playoffs coming from? Well, the rest of the Eastern Conference may not be as strong as advertised when you look at it closely. Miami is counting on Jermaine O’Neal’s health this year (check his quotes – it’s freaking groundhog day for him) – any Raptors fan can tell Heat supporters how that’s going to go. Philadelphia got worse, Atlanta stayed the same, Boston has to seriously start looking at life without KG being KG (if they don’t have him at or near full strength, there’s no sugar-coating it, they will be much worse), the Knicks actually might have gotten worse (if that’s possible) and the Nets definitely did. In fact, the only teams that improved are Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington and Chicago. Charlotte’s improvement MIGHT net them the 8th seed, Orlando and Cleveland were already one and two in the east. So that means two teams in direct competition with the Raps improved, while 6 or 7 either stayed the same or got worse. Including potentially every team in the Raptors division. Even if the Raptors had thrown out the same line-up as last year, they’d probably improve by 2-3 spots, but they aren’t throwing out the same team. The Raptors are throwing out potentially the best offense in the entire Association. 4 more wins last year and the Raptors leapfrog Indiana, Charlotte, New Jersey and Milwaukee. All of whom got worse this offseason. 7 more wins and they leapfrog Detroit (who may or may not have jumped off a cliff this offseason) and make the playoffs.

I went through last season’s results and picked out some losses that don’t sit well with me. Last season, the Raptors lost 129-127 to New Jersey in OT (in a game that could arguably go down as the worst loss in franchise history); 98-97 to Portland. They lost to Detroit, Philly, New Orleans, New Jersey again (by 7), Golden State (by 6), Milwaukee by 10, Indiana by 7, Milwaukee AGAIN by 11, MEMPHIS by 8 (scoring 70 points), the Knicks by 30 (the freaking Knicks!), Detroit by 4 in OT, Charlotte by 13 and Charlotte by 26 back to back (!), the Knicks by 9, Indiana by 29, and Washington by 2. Theoretically, every one of those should be a win. Obviously teams lose games they should win all the time, but that right there is 19 games that could easily have been wins. If they had won 9, suddenly the Raptors were 42 and 40 and in the 6th spot.

Last year, the Raptors scored 99 PPG and allowed 102. Even if the team defence doesn’t improve from last year (and I think it will), the offense scoring 106+ points a game translates to wins. Pure and simple. Even if that’s only an extra 4 or 5 that they would have lost last year, add those with the loses that were games thrown away last year and suddenly the Raptors are looking at 46-47 wins and the 4th spot overall. Is it that easy? Absolutely it is. The competition got worse and the team got better. Good teams beat the teams that they should beat. This club is built to withstand injury. This club is built to score. And this club is being moulded right now into a team that can play passable defense. The injection of heart (guys like Evans and Rasho, plus the extra motivation of Jose and Bosh to prove to themselves and the world that they are among the best ballers in the world) and leadership also boost the intangible qualities of the club. With a little confidence and some swagger to go with it, the kind that can only come from seeing success and building on it, and this could be a team to fear. If they get on a roll, watch out. This is a good team, now they just have to prove it.