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Oh when it all, it all falls down. I’m telling you ohh, it all falls down…

Seasons come and seasons go. As sports fans we are conditioned to have short term memories, reactions and expectations. When TFC missed the playoffs last year I was upset for 2 days before throwing myself headfirst into a new Leafs and Raptors season. When the Leafs season ended in disappointment I celebrated by throwing myself into the world beating Blue Jays (disclaimer: that title has a timed expiration date of… well, probably 2 weeks). This Raptors season for me, I don’t know. I can deal with bad teams, lord knows I’ve seen plenty coming out of the T-dot over the past few years. I can deal with teams underachieving, again, lord knows I’ve seen plenty of that coming out of the 416 area. What I don’t know if I can deal with is a collapse of epic proportions that screws several other teams and fan bases in the process. I don’t know if, as a sports fan, I WANT the Raptors to make the playoffs today. It feels… dirty that they even still have a chance.

Sunday’s game against the Bulls was for all intents and purposes a play-in game for the playoffs. Single elimination, win or go home. Not only did the Raps not win, they didn’t even have to bother with the Go Home part since they never bothered showing up at the office anyway. The Bulls won the biggest game of the year; they’ve earned the right to make the post season as a result. After all, now that it’s the last game of the season and the Dinos need but a single more win and some help from Charlotte to be home safe in the playoffs, we can take a look back at some of the Raptors handiwork.

Losing by 1 on November 15 to Phoenix, on the road. (Remember the optimism? That warm and fuzzy feeling?)

Anyone remember December 1, when the Raps lost by 4 at home to the Wizards? Or the next game; when they decided to forgo the first game of a road trip and lost by 31 points to Atlanta?

How about blowing a massive second-half lead on January 11 in Indiana, eventually losing 105-101? Or the game they could have taken vengeance on those same Pacers, instead giving up over 40 points in the 3rd quarter on Feb 2, losing 130-115?

March 7, losing to Philly by 13 points.

March 10, losing to Sacramento by 23. TWENTY-THREE!

March 13, losing to Golden State by 12.

The terrible effort in Miami on March 28, losing by 3.

Losing AGAIN to Golden State, this time at home on April 4, after Bosh missed a layup to win the game at the buzzer.

Even after all of those loses and terrible efforts, the Raptors STILL could have sewn up a playoff slot and a matchup with the LeBrons with a win on Sunday against the Bulls. Yes, Bosh was hurt and not playing. Yes, same with Wright. And yes, Turkoglu was not only hurt, but playing (the worst possible outcome). Had the guys wearing White shown any real fight or heart, it’d be excusable that they lost. Especially given the injury situation Jay Triano was presented with. Instead, well, we saw nothing. In the biggest game of the year the Raptors got the yips. 21 3 point attempts, 5 made. 15 trips to the free-throw line. All game. More 3 point attempts than free-throws. Again, I realize Bosh was out injured and he is the driving force of the Raptors (literally), but that’s just inexcusable in my books. After losing by 18 in what was essentially an NCAA tournament game, losing twice to the Golden State Warriors, losing by 23 to Sacramento, the 2 blown leads in Indiana, how can any self respecting Raptors fan say that this is a team that deserves to be in the playoffs?

Much ado in Toronto has been made of the Cavs playing LeBron in the game against the Raptors last week, while sitting him against the Bulls. I’ve heard claims of how it discredits the game, and is an embarrassment to sport etc. That’s the biggest load of crap I’ve ever heard. If Cleveland is so secure in its playoff seed that it can affect who they play in the first round of the playoffs, then they’ve earned that right. Conversely, if the Raptors in the last week of the season are relying on other teams to help them make the playoffs, they’ve earned an extra month of vacation. A season isn’t made over the last week or two, it’s made from game 1 to game 82 (or 86). Over that span, the Raptors have showed themselves to be extremely talented offensively, lazy defensively, unwilling or unable to rebound, mentally soft, poorly structured (Hi Hedo!) and partially snake-h bitten (the Bosh injury really couldn’t have come at a worse time). As a sports fan I find it somewhat disgraceful to have to watch my team, a team that by adding up the total of its parts SHOULD easily be a 5th seed in the Eastern conference, rely on other teams help to have a prayer of making the playoffs.

And you, reader: As a sports fan, if the Raptors defy the odds and somehow make the playoffs after no showing in the biggest game of the year, would you feel that the Raps have earned their playoff spot? Would you be able to look a Bulls fan in the eye, or a Rockets fan for that matter, and say, “Sorry about that, thems the breaks”? I couldn’t. I already feel dirty from this whole season. This wasn’t a team that underachieved. This was a club that overachieved at underachieving. Winning games they should lose, losing games they should win, seemingly at random. Earlier this year I wrote something detailing in short that the difference between playoff teams and non playoff teams isn’t beating the upper echelon teams, it’s beating the bottom feeders. The teams that you are better than or equal to. Think about it in real terms: If you and Brad Pitt are both trying to pick up the same girl and he gets her in the end, you can’t be mad. right? I mean he’s Brad Pitt for god’s sake! But if you and Dustin Diamond are both trying to pick up the same girl and Dustin Diamond wins, maybe it’s time for some serious self-reflection. This season, the Raps didn’t even get the cojones to try and talk to the girl, let alone buy her a drink. And sure, maybe Hedo was a little gun-shy after all the shut downs in Yorkville, but as I’ve stated ad nauseum, Toronto sports fans in particular don’t care about results nearly as much as effort. Show us you care, show us you try. The Raps haven’t shown anyone that they care, nor have they shown an ability to try consistently.

Don’t get me wrong, tonight I’ll be cheering for the Raps and the Bobcats as hard as I can. But after the game, should it all break down the way I hope (both Raptors and Cats win) instead of gloating to my Bulls friends, I’ll be apologizing. We’d have robbed them. Even though we’d have gotten the prize in the end, it’d take a long time (or a few SHOCKING wins) to wash the blood off our hands. I know what it feels like to cheer for a team that deserves to make the playoffs and doesn’t, I’m a Jays fan. I’ve seen it every 3 years since 1994. The 2009/2010 Raptors are not that team, and Bulls’ fan base doesn’t deserve that kind of end.

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As you may or may not recall, I actually wrote two previews for this current Raptors squad. One was a glowing, optimistic preview. The other, a pessimistic, worst-case preview. So now we’re 21 games in to the season and it looks like (true to common sense), the Raptors have landed somewhere between the two predictions. My prediction of an epic Raptors offense has come to pass (somewhat), as has my fear of an epically bad Raptors defense. The results thus far (in terms of total wins/loses) aren’t really surprising to me, nor do I think it would be to anyone who follows the NBA. Consider who the Raptors have played so far: Cleveland, Memphis, Orlando (twice), Detroit, New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio, Chicago, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix (twice), Denver, Utah, Miami, Indiana, Charlotte, Boston, Washington (twice), and Atlanta. Any right-thinking NBA fan would have the Raptors with a record of 9-12 right now. So the record of 8-13 in of itself doesn’t worry me. What worries me is the effort the Raptors have given of late, especially against Washington and Indiana.

The NBA is structured in three levels: the Haves, the Have Nots, and the I Don’t Knows. In the East, the majority of the teams fall into the I Don’t Know category while in the West it’s pretty split between the Haves and the Have Nots (thought the IDK movement is starting to build steam in the Pacific Time Zone as well). What those three categories do is essentially tell us which teams should win each game. For instance; The Haves should always win, the Have Nots should always lose (obviously reality isn’t that neat and tidy, but it usually works out).

The I Don’t Knows are the interesting characters. We don’t know if they should win or lose games at tip time, it’s equally plausible that they could do either in spectacular fashion. But one thing we do know is that the Haves are better than the IDK’s, even if an IDK can beat a Have team on occasion. Against “Have” teams (Easts Big 4, any West playoff team), the Raptors are 1 and 10. That is to be expected. Except there were a few of the 10 loses that were very close games that the Raptors were in, and competing hard right to the end. Specifically the first Phoenix game, the first Orlando game and the San Antonio game. Against Have Nots, the Raptors are 1 and 1 (the loss to Memphis). Against IDK teams, the Raptors are 6 and 2. “So what?” you say? 1-10 against good teams is still unacceptable? Well it is and it isn’t. 1-10 vs. good teams is terrible if the goal is to win an NBA Championship. But we all know the Raptors aren’t contending for the Larry O’Brien Trophy this year.

The Raptors’ goal is to make the playoffs with a somewhat decent seeding. In that context, 1-10 vs good teams doesn’t matter too much, because spots 5-8 in the Eastern Conference (the spots the Raptors are competing for) are going to an IDK team. We have to assume that Orlando/Atlanta/Boston/Cleveland are going to beat the teams like Milwaukee, Charlotte, Chicago, Indiana, Washington, Toronto and Detroit at least 7 times out of 10. No, what separates teams in the IDK category is their record against each other. These evenly-matched games count for double in the standings. They are the variable that ultimately makes the difference between the playoffs or not (for the IDK category), or a top seed or not (in the Have category).

For a topical example, let’s look at the Wizards’ and Raptors’ schedules. First let’s set some basic structure: The Have Not crew consists of New York, New Jersey, Memphis, Minnesota and Golden State. The Haves are Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, the Lakers, Dallas, Portland, San Antonio and Utah (I’d like to think these lists aren’t too contentious but let me know if you disagree). The rest of the teams fall into the I Don’t Know category. Toronto plays 30 Haves, 14 Have Nots and 38 I Don’t Knows. Washington plays 29 Haves, 14 Have Nots and 39 I Don’t Knows. Assume against the Haves and the Have nots, at the end of the day, both teams finish with records of 18-26. Sometimes they beat teams they shouldn’t, sometimes they lose to teams they shouldn’t, whatever. It’s not particularly likely that either team would finish with more than 22 wins (do you see either team beating the haves 8 times or more? Ya right.), or with less than 14 wins (I mean really, those Have Nots are TERRIBLE. Plus every underdog has his day at least once in a while).

Logically, both teams should fall within a few wins of each other in that section of their schedule in the 16-19 win range. That’s why the inter-category games are so important. The Raptors 6-2 schedule against IDK teams puts them on pace for a 28-10 record in-category. Add that to the between 16-19 wins against the Haves and the Have Nots and you have a 43+ win season. Easily good enough to make the post-season in the Eastern Conference. Compare that to the Wizards’ 4-7 record against IDK teams which puts them on pace for a 14-25 record in-category. When added to the 16-19 wins against Haves and Have Nots, that puts them on pace for a 30+ win season. An unmitigated disaster if the goal was to make the playoffs, and also a long way from the number 1 pick in the draft.

So what does that mean for the Raptors? It means as long as they continue to beat the bad teams and the I Don’t Know teams at a good rate, they can lose to the Suns as many times as they want. A loss against Phoenix shouldn’t really hurt their playoff chances. A loss against Washington does significantly more damage. Which brings me to my worry. I worry when the Raptors don’t show up with the same effort and intensity against mediocre teams as they do against good teams (sometimes). Arguably (Ed.: inarguably!), the game in Phoenix (the 101-100 loss) was the Raptors’ best game thus far this year. That same effort and intensity would turn games against the IDK teams into blowouts. But they don’t seem to bring that same energy to those games consistently. Allowing Indiana to score 112 isn’t bringing the intensity, even if the Raps won that game. Giving up 106 points at home to the Wizards isn’t going out there and working real hard either. I’d personally be happier losing to Phoenix by 19 points like the game on the 29th and giving the GREAT effort against Washington than see the Raps give everything they have, play an amazing game and come up short 101-100 to the Suns. A GREAT effort against Phoenix only gave the Raptors a chance to win the game. A great effort against Washington GUARANTEES a win. As a fan, I may say I want competitiveness, or close exciting games, but that’s bullshit. At the end of the day I want wins and playoff games.

See, here’s the thing: Every fan wants/expects consistent effort and intensity for 48 minutes. But the reality is that consistency is what separates good teams from bad. Very few teams will be totally consistent (even Cleveland/Boston are still getting there this year), and expecting a team like the Raptors or Wizards to be that consistent is realistically expecting too much. The vast majority of teams with have some good days and some bad days and that is the defining characteristic of an I Don’t Know team. (Important note: By bad day I mean taking 8 or 9 minutes off on one end of the floor or another. Anything beyond that is simply unacceptable from a professional athlete). Well, if the Raptors have 41 good efforts and 41 bad efforts in them I’d rather see the bad efforts in the games that the team is probably going to lose anyway. Obviously that’s an oversimplification, but I think you get my point. The Raptors wasting a great effort against Phoenix and shitting the bed against Washington (the first time) led to an 0-2 record. Had they reversed the efforts in those games they’d have one more win. It’s that simple. This is basketball, not figure skating. There are no style points or moral defeats. There are only wins and losses.

Besides that, psychologically there’s no shame in losing to a team that’s better than you are. If as I’m writing this, Kelly Dwyer is writing something using the same basic premise and just flat out wrote a better article than I did, I can walk away going “Wow. We were thinking the same thing! I just need to get to his level of writing.” Whereas if James was writing something using the same basic premise and did a better job than me, I’m sitting in my room rocking back and forth trying to figure out where I went wrong with my life (Ed.: Asshole. Good to see the Dwyer love, though.). NBA teams are starting to embrace the impact that psychology has in pro athletes, with some (like the Raptors) bringing in psychiatrists to talk to/help the players. Think about it in terms of your own life. When you attempt to do something against someone who is better than you and come up short (whether it’s in bowling/golf/pool/drinking contests, whatever), you aren’t going to take the loss as personally. The loss shows you the gap in talent, and how much you need to improve to try and challenge the person next time. It’s a constructive loss, no matter if you were close or not.

Contrast that to if you lose to someone inferior than you, instead of that admiration/respect for the other person, you instead get angry at yourself. After all, YOU blew the game you were supposed to win. Since everyone there KNEW you were better, but you just got unlucky, or fucked up. Well if you’re on a team, that anger can cause the disintegration of a team. That anger leads to finger pointing, and finger pointing if done inappropriately can fracture a team. (Side note: this is where vets with winning experience help). This finger pointing is what worries me. The Raptors DO have some strong veteran leadership available (I’m thinking mainly of Rasho here), but they also have a lot of veteran leadership who don’t really know how to win. I’m not convinced Turkoglu has the intestinal fortitude to play the role here he’s being asked to play. I’m not sure that Jose has the necessary abilities to play the role he is being asked to play. I’m not sure that Chris Bosh is able to properly vocalize his needs to anyone, and I KNOW Bargnani mentally isn’t there yet (just look at his numbers at home vs. on the road). The Raptors have the makeup of a fragile team, a team with a number of fault lines that could crack from the right pressure.

Ideally, I’d say just get Colangelo to fix those fault lines. But mid-season it’s hard to make serious changes to a team, so they basically are who they are (unless a GM gives away a player anyway). The best way for the Raptors to avoid melting down and to maximize their potential wins this season is to continue to bring the ruckus against the other teams fighting for the playoffs in both conferences. If the Raps want to take a night off, take it off against one of the elite teams. There are 30 games they can coast through if they want. I personally would be happy if they won 6 of those games. If they won 10 I’d be over the moon. The other 20 they can sleepwalk through. They can be lackadaisical getting back on defence, they can make bad passes, run stagnant offensive sets, not switch on defence. I don’t care. Just do me (and my heart, and most breakable objects in my basement) a favour and don’t let me see that against other I Don’t Know teams.

Sometimes, you just get beat. It happens. If the Raptors were good enough to beat every I Don’t Know team every time, they wouldn’t be an I Don’t Know team. But losing due to a lack of effort is an insult to the fans and to the players themselves, and it should be made clear through the entire organization, from Larry Tannenbaum to Marcus Banks, that it won’t be tolerated. THAT is the difference between playoff teams and non playoff teams, and eventually what allows teams to transition from good I Don’t Know teams to Have teams. After all, ultimately that is the goal: move up the IDK team hierarchy, eventually become a Have team, become a contender for the title, win a title. That’s the plan, anyway. See? The sky isn’t falling. Yet.

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I, and I think a lot of other Raptor fans have been impressed with Amir Johnson off of the bench. He has a very good motor, puts a lot of energy into getting on the glass, plays tough defense and seems like a good teammate who knows his role.

More than anything, the fact that he knows his role is extremely important. Let’s face it; he doesn’t have a lot of offensive skill other than hitting the offensive glass, getting putbacks and dunking while open. In that sense, knowing what you can do and not do is really significant. Why not get the ball into the other very talented offensive players’ hands?

That, in my opinion, was lacking in another Raptors player during the preseason. Reggie Evans seemed very selfish with the ball, and there were instances where he would even attempt to dribble the ball down the court himself instead of giving it up. He also seemed extremely reluctant to pass the ball out of the post after getting an offensive rebound. He would take shots where he was covered by the opposing center AND another player. Often he would be fouled, but he converts free throws at a poor rate.

Johnson’s stats aren’t eye-popping at first glance. 4.4 points and 4.8 rebounds in 16 minutes doesn’t seem that impressive. Over 36 minutes, that translates to approximately 10 and 10, and he is shooting an impressive 62% FG% and an incredible 65% TS%. This is largely because he plays close to the basket and takes only very easy shots, but as I alluded to earlier, Toronto does not need its less offensively skilled players taking bad shots (which his FG% attests to). Obviously, his 7.1 fouls per 36 make him usable only sparingly, but there are already very few minutes left with Bosh and Bargnani playing so many. Compare this with Reggie Evans who has shot an unimpressive 44% FG% his past two seasons in the league. Forcing things that aren’t there can really take a toll on your efficiency numbers.

The rose-colored glasses aren’t on too tight, however, because fouling is obviously the biggest concern with Amir. Not only does it limit how many minutes he can play, it puts the team into the penalty much sooner when he is on the floor. I think the thing to remember is that Amir Johnson, even with those imposing-looking tattoos all over his body, is only 22 years old. 22! He was drafted right out of high school, and basically had to figure out which position he was going to play, and what his skill-set was. Detroit fans were all over Amir Johnson, because of his athletic body, and motor. However, after a disappointing season where he was pushed into the starting lineup, Detroit fans seemed to jump off the Amir bandwagon as quickly as they hopped on, and he was traded that offseason.

Detroit fans thought originally that he was going to be a 3 because he was very mobile and had a slight body a few years ago, but I think it’s pretty obvious what position Johnson plays now. Johnson is an undersized 5. He is strong, has long arms, is athletic and plays virtually all of his minutes in and around the paint, and his statistics heavily point in that direction. I think with a more defined role, and allowing him to make mistakes on the court his foul rate will start decreasing, and his confidence will grow and he will become more familiar with his teammates.

I think there is a certain chemistry between Amir and Marco Belinelli. Belinelli is a pretty imaginative passer, and has the ability to get the ball into a post player’s hands in a position to score. Amir provides solid picks for Belinelli, who has been very willing to drive and get to the basket. If we the Raptors can get some chemistry from our bench positions, I don’t think they should break that up with a selfish me-first player. Amir can give you the qualities that Reggie does off the bench, without the bad qualities Reggie has been known to display, and is younger.

My concern is that Reggie’s contract and veteran status might put him in the lineup at the expense of Amir, who has been fitting into that role very well off the bench, despite his penchant for fouling. That would be a damn shame, as it would deprive us Raptors fans from watching a fine young talent develop.

Around T.O. of late, much has been made about the lack of success we’ve had as a sports city. Outside of the Toronto Argonauts winning the Grey Cup in 1996, 1997 and 2004, and of course the Toronto Rock (lacrosse) title run that exhilarated dozens and dozens of Torontonians, the only Championship teams we’ve been able to celebrate were the 1992 and 1993 Toronto Blue Jays. Before that, the 1991 and 1983 Toronto Argos and before that was the infamous 1967 Maple Leafs. However, these old numbers don’t really mean much in today’s terms; it’s not like the Jays were suffering through (another) decade of mediocrity in the 1960’s, and they weren’t expected to compete for the 1970’s or much of the 80’s. As for the Argos, quite frankly, back when there were 2 or 3 sports in this city the Argos meant much more (as an Argos fan it’s tough to admit). The Raptors didn’t even exist until 1995 so it’s hardly their fault. No, the years since 1994 have been much, much worse than any previous lean years here.

In the Summer of 1994, things had never looked better for Toronto Sports as a whole. The Maple Leafs finished their season 2nd in the Western Conference and in their division to the Detroit Red Wings. In the playoffs they made it to the Western Conference Finals, losing to the upstart Canucks in 5 games. However that was the 2nd consecutive conference final for the club and the team seemed to be going somewhere for the first time since the late 1970’s. Coming off back to back World Series Titles, the Blue Jays started off the 94 season .500 (a bit of a World Series hangover) before falling into a slump in June, going from .500 at the start of the month to 12 games under by the end of it. However in July they turned it around and began really heating up. They finished July only 5 games under .500, which is where they sat on August 11th (an important date). And just before the summer, on May 15th of 1994 the new basketball team in the city of Toronto was given its name; the Toronto Raptors. On May 24th, the team colours and our first General Manager (Isiah Thomas, you may have heard of him) were announced. Even in Argo-land things were on the upswing. The ownership group of Wayne Gretzky, Bruce McNall and John Candy had run into serious problems that offseason when John Candy died of a heart attack and McNall went bankrupt (generally two very bad signs for a sports team). Fortunately a new buyer stepped up right away and there wasn’t much of a hiccup for the franchise. The CFL as a league was doing better than ever, too; expanding to Las Vegas, Shreveport, and Baltimore. And around the country, the Canucks had just lost in the cup final while the year before the Canadiens won the Stanley Cup. Yes, by August 11th things were looking pretty good in Toronto and across the country.

Then August 11th happened. On August 11th, 1994, the Blue Jays were 3rd in the division, pretty well back of the Yankees but seemingly coming together. The Expos were the best team in Baseball, dominant enough that people across Canada began dreaming of a World Series pitting the Blue Jays against the Expos. That is, until August 11th. That day, an entire generation of sports fans (mine) lost our innocence. Baseball owners, unable to come to terms with players for a collective bargaining agreement locked the players out. The World Series was cancelled. The Blue Jays haven’t been within 5 games of the playoffs since, after winning 5 divisional titles from 1985 to 1993. Of course, we all know what happened to the Expos within 8 years of that. Similarly, things didn’t exactly start exquisitely for the Raptors. Outside of the victory over the 72-win Bulls (the first basketball game I ever attended), the Raptors never really made any noise for a few years, and weren’t able to make the playoffs for the first time until 1999. And in the Raptors’ 15 years of existence, they have only made it out of the first round of the playoffs one single time. The Maple Leafs fell off badly in 1994/1995. They imploded, finishing 5th in their division, barely made the playoffs and were eliminated in the first round by the Chicago Blackhawks. So much for building something. The Argos were uncompetitive for a few years until they built 2 of the greatest teams ever in 1996 and 1997. However, outside those 2 years, the Argo’s haven’t really been truly competitive. Even their Grey Cup in 2005 was somewhat fluky, requiring upsets over heavily favoured Montreal and BC. More miraculous run than league domination. Montreal of course, got its Allouettes back when the CFL team from Baltimore relocated there after the Cleveland Browns moved to Baltimore, becoming the Ravens. Baltimore was the lone success story from the CFL’s American Expansion on and off the field. They attracted decent crowds and even won the Grey Cup once and losing in it one other time before the move. Shreveport and Las Vegas were unmitigated disasters. Read up on them, their stories are kinda interesting. That is if you’re the sort who’s into CFL history… Hello? Anyone? I know you’re out there, I can hear you breathing. Seriously though, this is some of the worst decision-making in the history of professional sports, and that’s saying something.

Yes, by 1995 a funk had set in in Toronto, and across Canada. Since that year, 3 Canadian teams have lost Stanley Cup Finals with zero Cup wins, 11 CFL teams have either folded or declared Bankruptcy (I’m counting Ottawa twice here. An astonishing number nonetheless). As the CFL contracted, the NHL moved clubs from Winnipeg and Quebec City, the Expos were ripped out of Montreal and placed in Washington. The Grizzlies failed in Vancouver (and by failed, I mean were basically sabotaged. No chance for success) and moved to Memphis, where good basketball now comes to die. The Raptors and their fans have dealt with playing in a baseball stadium, the rise and fall of Tracy McGrady, the rise and fall of Vince Carter, the Kevin O’Neill year, Vince’s mom, Rob Babcock, and Rafael Arauajo. We’ve had one playoff series victory, in a 5 game series. Yes, it’s been a long cold winter up here since 1994.

So, it’s almost 2010. Where are we? The Blue Jays continue to twist the knife into the hearts of their fans. With the Jays’ only true superstar, Roy Halladay, poised to enter his last season as a Jay. The Maple Leafs are winless over 3 weeks into the season, have 2 hurt goalies, and seem to be going nowhere fast. The rest of the Canadian NHL teams seem OK, but none are cup contenders. The Argos have won 3 home games in 2 seasons. Toronto FC had to beat the worst team in the league on the second last day of the season to make the playoffs, and as I type this are down 5-0 (Note: NY Red Bulls needed 4 goals this game to avoid the record for fewest goals in an MLS season, and putting a seal on their status as Worst MLSE Team Ever. I don’t even want to think about this anymore). Even the fucking Toronto Rock have fallen onto hard times. The only team in this city that truly seems like it’s trying to build something is the Raptors.

Things have changed a lot in Toronto since 1994. Baseball and hockey have somewhat stagnated as far as fan growth is concerned, while basketball and soccer are exploding around the multicultural GTA. The somewhat knowledgeable and extremely vocal fanbase is not sitting passively waiting for a good team either, we’re demanding one. The pressure on the Raptors a few years ago pushed Babcock out the door, and after a brief and fairly successful interim GM (Wayne Embry), the then-reigning Executive of the Year Bryan Colangelo was hired. Colangelo is in his 4th year now. He’s made the playoffs twice and missed once. This is his year to make or break this club, thus his total remodelling of the franchise in the offseason. Colangelo brought in pieces to try and compete today. Not building for 3-4 years down the road. He didn’t tell us we can’t compete in a division with the high-spending Celtics and Knicks. He didn’t blame the salary cap for limiting the quality and amount of players we’re able to bring in. He didn’t blame poor coaching for 2 years of poor showings (well… maybe kinda). He gave us hope. This is all even we hardened sports fans asked for. But now he has to capitalize on this hope, lest the growth of basketball start to stagnate like hockey and baseball.

Toronto as a sports market is interesting. The fans are incredibly passionate, yet for sports other than the Leafs we have a tendency to ignore clubs in their down times. That’s the kind of dangerous game that they play in Seattle that cost them the Sonics and nearly caused the Mariners to go bankrupt. However, it is good for the team because all they need to do is become competitive and they are guaranteed sell outs. It forces the clubs to try and do well. And fortunately for them, thanks to the previous 14 years of sports failure lowering our expectations, we fans have a low definition for success. We aren’t talking about the 1990’s Atlanta Braves here after all. Even a .500 club can ignite this town, and hoops fans across the country.

Bill Simmons has a theory that the collective karma of one sports city can be changed by one team. His example was the 2002 Patriots’ improbable Super Bowl win. The city of Boston’s karma change allowed the Red Sox to turn into a mini-dynasty (that seems to be on its last legs, thank god), the Patriots to turn into a full-fledged dynasty and even contributed to the rejuvenation of the Celtics and Bruins. While I don’t buy his theory that new karma allowed these teams to win, I do agree in that I think teams can feed off other clubs in the same city in two ways. First, increased fan expectations and the pressure of staying relevant within your market force the organization to get competitive fast – imagine what the Celtics’ front office was thinking when all of the sudden they were the 3rd team in Boston? Second, there is a spin-off of confidence. I’m a big believer that confidence is the biggest and most important intangible in sports. When players expect to win, they play better. When players expect to lose they will. Just like all people, when you expect failure, failure has a way of finding you. Plus, just as fans get swept up in excitement when a local team does well, so do all other sports fans within the same city (How can you not? Following a winning team is… well to be honest I’ve forgotten what it’s like. That may be the saddest thing in this whole story. But I remember enough to know that it’s glorious). Professional athletes are people too. And we know they’re sports people. Besides, after everything is said and done, everyone likes a winner.

Right now, in Toronto, we have no winners. As someone who is almost equally obsessed with our 5 major teams (for any Yanks reading this that’s the Maple Leafs, Raptors, Blue Jays, Argos, and Toronto FC), it pains me to say this; but we aren’t winners. We have a collective loser’s mentality. We expect to lose, we fear the inevitable losses coming around the bend just out of sight, we expect our big stars to cut town and run, we assume that people don’t want to play here for stupid fucking reasons. We’re a bunch of whiny losers. But all that we need to change our loser’s mentality is just one single fucking winner. Just one. The only team that even has a hope in hell of doing that in this city is the Raptors. The Raptors have the talent, they have the General Manager, they have the coach, they have the fans. They even have the opportunity (the wide openness of the Eastern Conference playoff picture). If the Raptors can win but a single round in the post season, it could alter the destinies of untold amounts of franchises around it. We need it as a city. As a country.

Since 2004, only 1 Toronto team has won a round in the playoffs. And they won one single, solitary playoff round. That’s right, one. And it was the Argos over Winnipeg in 2005 (which barely counts since it was the first round of CFL playoffs. Considering 6 teams make the post season in a 9 team league, that’s not too impressive). It’s 2009. We NEED this Raptors season to be a success. We NEED them to not only make the playoffs, but look like they aren’t just going to roll over and die once they get there. And more than that, we NEED to continue to build on the air of hope and optimism that the Raptors have right now. Because it won’t last forever, nothing ever does. The Blue Jays are finding out what long runs of mediocrity can do to a once vibrant and passionate fan base. I don’t ever want to see the Raptors honeymoon ending. I hope the Raptors players and more importantly Colangelo and Jay Triano understand the significance of this season; by 2010/2011 they could be faced with a re-armed Leafs team, the continued growth of TFC, and the possibility of a Raptors team searching for a new GM, a new franchise player, and a new identity. Rebuilding again. Right now, it’s all in the Raptors’ hands. All they have to do is win. Just win baby. Just win. Win and Bosh stays (probably). Win and Colangelo and Triano stay. Win and the Raptors’ place in the fickle Toronto market is secure, no matter what the other Toronto teams do. Win and continue to grow both the game of basketball and the Raptors brand across the country, and even around the world. Win because the Raptors really don’t have any other options. It’s either continue building for a future title run, or blow it all up and start over at square one, again. And stab us Toronto fans in the back again. The only good thing I can think of in that scenario is once you’ve already been stabbed 40 times, what’s the 41st one going to do? After all, what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger. Eh tu brutus?

Remember how crazy the West was 2-through-9 last year? We knew no one would catch the Lakers, and we knew you’d have to win close to 50 games to make the playoffs, but we had no idea how everything would shake out in the end. There was one great team in the conference, a bunch of very good teams, and then a whole bunch of crap. No Western team won between 29 (Golden State) and 46 (Phoenix) games.

Well, the East is even crazier than that this year, but the action is all in the middle. I see three teams that should easily win more than 46 games as presently constructed and only two that might finish with fewer than 29. That’s almost what happened last season, but what’s even more interesting is that, if forced to predict team records this season, I’d argue that there are ten Eastern teams that could hover around the 40-42 win mark.

Here’s a look at the big clusterfuck:

Atlanta Hawks

2008-2009: 47-35. 10th in offense. 11th in defense.

You might wonder why these guys are on the list, as they had home court advantage in the playoffs last season. They’re also the only team on this list that was above-average on both ends of the court last season. Plus, they’ve got continuity – in re-signing Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, and Marvin Williams, they’ve kept their core intact. Adding Joe Smith and Jeff Teague should improve their bench, too. Still, I see a couple of reasons why they could slip back in the standings. First, there’s the Jamal Crawford signing. At first glance, this seems like a positive move. He is, if only slightly, a better player statistically than Filp Murray, the man he is replacing. However, he is allergic to defense. Murray isn’t great at that end of the court either, but I’d rather have him out there than Jamal. Additionally, Murray was only out there for 24 minutes a night, which is what he’s been used to as a sparkplug scorer off the bench. Crawford has been accustomed to a more prominent role and has received significantly more minutes than that since 2003-2004, which leads me to question how this will work out. There are two potential problem scenarios here – having a bad defender on the court for too long, or having an unhappy Crawford cause problems in the locker room. In addition to all this, I see a second challenge in the way of Atlanta getting back to 47 wins, one that faces all of the teams I will cover here: other teams have improved. Atlanta went 26-7 against the other nine teams on this list last season and I believe this will be a significantly more difficult thing to do this time around. Even if they are still the best of the group, there is a smaller gulf between the Hawks and the teams who finished beneath them in the standings last year, one that might not make up for the fact that they are clearly a couple of notches away from being an elite team. Unless their young talent and/or coach Mike Woodson provides the club with improvement from within, expect a step back.

Miami Heat

2008-2009: 43-39. 20th in offense. 11th in defense.

If Jermaine O’Neal plays like he did in the first half of the decade for Indiana, and he manages to stay on the court, this team can improve. Reading the reports in Miami might make you seem optimistic about this, but I’m here to remind you that this is the same exact stuff we heard in Toronto last year. I truly hope Jermaine will be more than a half-decent jump-shooter and shot-blocker this season, but I remain very, very skeptical. Even if Jermaine O’Neal remains average, though, shouldn’t Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley improve enough to add some wins? I’m not sure. Chalmers is a nice piece but I don’t see him being much of a game-changer this season. Beasley is more interesting – this is an extremely talented kid that deserves a bigger role than he had last season. If they park him on the block and give him the ball, he can score at will. With more minutes and more touches this season, he could help the Heat win more games. I’m worried about him, though, because Erik Spoelstra is going to try to play him at the 3. This is not his position. He’s going to struggle to guard 3s and he’s going to have a tougher time scoring. If they don’t get more offense out of Beasley and O’Neal, I think they could drop in the standings even if Wade turns in another MVP-level season – the drop-off on the defensive end from Marion/Moon to Beasley/James Jones/Q-Rich is huge.

Philadelphia 76ers

2008-2009: 41-41. 19th in offense. 13th in defense.

This team has some good players and a good coach, but there’s no way to know if they’re going to put it together, or put it together in time to really make a mark. They struggled integrating Elton Brand last year – we knew it would take some time to integrate a traditional post player into their athletic, fast-paced, turnover-causing attack, but didn’t think it’d be so difficult that everyone seemed relieved when the team’s best player was sidelined with an injury. Since last season, they’ve lost their starting point guard in Andre Miller and haven’t done much about it. Sure, he was lazy at times, but he was solid and, no, Jrue Holiday is not a replacement. This season we’ll see some improvement from Philly’s young guys, we’ll see a lot of Andre Iguodala handling the ball, and we’ll (hopefully) see a much more effective Elton Brand than we saw for bits of the 2008-2009 regular season. With the time it’ll take for this team to properly learn Eddie Jordan’s offense, though, and its still-obvious lack of shooters (even with Jason Kapono on the roster), I find it difficult to imagine them separating themselves from the pack in the East.

Chicago Bulls

2008-2009: 41-41. 14th in offense. 18th in defense.

Having John Salmons and Brad Miller around for the full season will help. So will having Luol Deng back. It even seems like Taj Gibson can contribute. So, why am I not projecting a big leap? Well, for one, they lost Ben Gordon. Complain all you want about his shot selection and his defense, but he is a very, very good player who the Bulls haven’t replaced. Before you scoff at the contested jumpers he puts up, realize he is an incredibly efficient scorer – his TS% of 57.2 is absolutely an elite number for a shooting guard, on par with that of Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade. I’m not going to argue that he is a great defender, but Scott Skiles was able to effectively mask his defensive deficiencies for years. Please don’t think of Jannero Pargo as an adequate replacement. Still, with improvement from Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah, this team might have the highest ceiling of any on this list. To finish at the top would require a fantastic coaching effort, though, and with Vinny Del Negro at the helm I am definitely not counting on it.

Detroit Pistons

2008-2009: 39-43. 21st in offense. 16th in defense.

Do not count on the Pistons finishing 21st in offensive efficiency next season. With Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Wilcox joining Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, Will Bynum, and Jason Maxiell, new coach John Kuester has plenty of scoring options to work with. Kuester is the man who re-worked the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense last season, when they jumped from the league’s 19th-best offensive team to its 4th-best. Even though they’ve been absolutely great in previous years, Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace hurt the Pistons on both ends of the floor last year. The long jump shots and sub-par defense we saw from these two last season is the reason we have the term “addition by subtraction”. Detroit fans should be expect a much more functional locker room than the one Michael Curry dealt with last season, plus potentially one of the league’s top offenses. This is all good stuff. There’s a reason I’m not expecting an enormous jump in the standings, though: defense. Charlie V. and Ben Gordon will be huge boosts on the offensive end of the floor, but these guys will never be mistaken for defensive stoppers. Same with Wilcox. They’ve brought Ben Wallace back, but at this point in his career I’d argue that Kwame Brown is a more useful defensive player. I would be very impressed if Kuester managed to keep this club at around the league average next season, that’s what it would take in order to move into the upper echelon of the conference, even if these Pistons are up there with Portland in terms of offensive potency.

Indiana Pacers

2008-2009: 38-44. 17th in offense. 19th in defense.

I’m not going to tell you that the Pacers are more talented this year. They’re not – swapping Marquis Daniels, Rasho Nesterovic, and Jarrett Jack for Dahntay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, and Earl Watson shouldn’t get any Pacers fan excited. Here’s the thing, though: these downgrades don’t prevent Indiana from winning a few more games than last year. Brandon Rush had a killer end of the season, Roy Hibbert was already a very effective center in his rookie campaign, and T.J. Ford is better than what he showed last season. I’d bet on all of them being more consistent this season. You have to hope that T.J. can stay healthy and Hibbert will cut down on the fouls, but the potential is there for 3/5ths of the Pacers starting unit (at least until Mike Dunleavy returns) to show considerable improvement. In addition to this, Danny Granger will continue the ascent to stardom that got him an All-Star berth and the Most Improved Player award in 2008-2009. I’m not fond of the Pacers’ overall plan or long-term outlook, but I won’t be at all surprised if they’re in the thick of the playoff hunt next season. I’d encourage you to pay attention to this team even if they’re not, though, as Jim O’Brien’s club played at the 3rd-fastest pace of any team last season and were a ton of fun to watch.

Charlotte Bobcats

2008-2009: 35-47. 27th in offense. 7th in defense.

The Bobcats wanted that 8th seed last year more than perhaps any franchise I’ve ever seen. Eschewing the bottom-out-and-get-draft-picks plan, coach Larry Brown pressured management into acquiring veterans Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Juwan Howard in the hopes of having the Bobcats’ most successful season yet. To his credit, he technically did that, as the Bobcats had previously never eclipsed the 33-win mark. Brown managed to impart his defensive wisdom on the young and old on the roster, making Charlotte one of the league’s best defensive teams by the end of the season. While I think none of this was/is in the best interest of the team’s future, I expect the Bobcats will make another charge at a low playoff seed in 2009-2010. This time, the vast majority of the key players are already used to Brown’s coaching style and this could translate into a few more wins. It’s a shame they took a step down by trading the solid Emeka Okafor for the chronically-injured Tyson Chandler, but they gained some ground by adding some much-needed wing scoring in Flip Murray and Gerald Henderson. If their defense sustains and they make some strides on the offensive end (a good start would be increasing D.J. Augustin’s minutes), then they’ll be in the mix.

Milwaukee Bucks

2008-2009: 34-48. 23rd in offense. 11th in defense.

You’ve got to love Scott Skiles, at least for the first few years he coaches a team. Even though they were overmatched some nights last season, the Bucks always competed. Even with guys like Luke Ridnour and Charlie Villanueva playing major minutes, the Bucks maintained an above-average defense and avoided toiling in the league’s cellar. Now, though, after losing three of their best players in Villanueva, Ramon Sessions and Richard Jefferson, can they be better? I say yes. The most impressive part about what Skiles accomplished last year in Milwaukee was the fact that he did it with Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut missing more than half of the season. With these guys coming back, expect a big jump on offense. And even though the Bucks failed to make any headline-grabbing news this summer, they did add some pieces to try to make up for what they gave away. Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, and Carlos Delfino can contribute right away and they hope to get contributions from Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Jennings, Jodie Meeks, and Roko Ukic as well. All this, plus the presence of the defensive-minded, brilliantly-named Luc Richard Mbah A Moute! I must say, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the Bucks.

Toronto Raptors

2008-2009: 33-49. 22nd in offense. 22nd in defense.

Kelly Dwyer was right when he said last year’s version of Jose Calderon was only at full strength for about a third of his 68 appearances. This is the single biggest reason why I expect the Raptors to make a jump from their terrible record last season. As a Raptors fan, it pained me to watch Jose last year. This guy who couldn’t move laterally, couldn’t turn the corner on the pick and roll, and couldn’t get the proper lift on his three-point shots was not the same guy I had seen running the point in TO the year before. The guy I had seen before was a danger to shoot at all times, ran the offense perfectly, knew when to attack, and made his teammates much better. Sure, he wasn’t an all-world defender, but he wasn’t a liability on that end, either. This All-Star-worthy version of Calderon is the man who I expect to be running the team this year, and this is why I project them to jump into the playoff picture. In Jarrett Jack, Rasho Nesterovic, Amir Johnson, and Antoine Wright, the Raptors have a much-improved bench and the addition of Hedo Turkoglu into the starting lineup alongside Chris Bosh, Calderon, and Andrea Bargnani could give Toronto one of the most potent offenses in the league. Hence, there is optimism in Toronto. Don’t believe the 50-win nonsense, though – this team is still too weak defensively and at the 2-guard spot to approach that number. That is, of course, unless Bargnani drinks some magical defense-and-rebounding juice and Jay Triano does a Stan Van Gundy-esque job of getting his weak defenders to play intelligent team D.

Washington Wizards

2008-2009: 19-63. 26th in offense. 29th in defense.

I’m sure you know that this is a completely different team to the Wizards of last year. With a healthy Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood, last year wouldn’t have been the nightmare that it was. Add Randy Foye and Mike Miller to the lineup, plus the coaching of Flip Saunders, and you have a team that will likely make a bigger jump than any other in 2009-2010. With a starting 5 of Arenas, Foye/Miller, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Brendan Haywood, opposing defenses are in for long nights against the Wiz. The problem, of course, is that opposing offenses may be in for easy nights. As great as this Wizards team looks offensively, with the aforementioned top six plus Fabricio Oberto, DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche, they look bad defensively. I love Flip, but he is more of an offensive guru and I doubt there’s a coach in this league that could make this bunch into a decent defensive group. If he does, they’re better than most teams here. If he doesn’t, as I expect, well… What do you get if you’re league-best on one end and league-worst on the other? Another middle-of-the-pack club.

What does this all mean? Well, all of the above teams are flawed. Flawed enough that they won’t approach the win totals of Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston if those teams stay relatively healthy. It also means they all have talent, though, and they’re all capable of beating better Western Conference teams on a random night in February. We know that, with trades and injuries, things will change for these teams and how they rank in comparison to each other as the season goes along. When we near the end of the season, though, I’m sure it’ll be a right mess trying to figure out which teams will make it into the playoffs and which of those will be lucky enough to get the 4th and 5th seeds and avoid facing one of the aforementioned juggernauts in the first round. Sure, the vast majority of these teams won’t play a game in May or June, but they will provide us with some pretty damn good basketball during the regular season. For a guy will be flipping from game to game on League Pass every night starting in two and a half weeks, this is something to be excited about.

Ah yes a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, but I figured I’d get a head start. Optimism is running wild in Toronto, but there are a few pitfalls that Raptors Nation is overlooking.

First, while Jay Triano is a highly respected international coach, he is a rookie NBA head coach. The NBA game and the European game are very different (see: United States Men’s basketball teams in 2002 and 2004). Jay has never led a pro training camp. He’s never developed the battle plan for an NBA season. He’s never managed the ego and minutes of 15 grown whiny, selfish babies for an entire season. He’s never really dealt with media criticism. He also has a key new face as an assistant coach. Marc Iavaroni was a highly, highly respected defensive-minded assistant coach with Phoenix. Then he bombed out as a head coach. How will he react to what effectively is a demotion? He’s now behind a maturing head coach. Again. This is the same place his career was 7 years ago when D’Antoni was hired in Phoenix. Will he demand the same respect in the room that he had? The other difficulty Jay has is implementing a system. In Toronto it’s a blank slate with so many new players. The blank slate can work out in either really good or really bad ways; totally depending on how it is used by the coach, and how it is accepted by the players. Will Jay, a rookie coach, be able to capture a team made up of some fairly veteran players? Will he and Iavaroni be able to come up with a defensive scheme that can hide Hedo Turkoglu completely? That will help out Jose Calderon? Will he be able to teach Demar DeRozan to adapt to the NBA game quick enough to be a presence on the floor?

These are just some of the problems the Raptors face. They’ve got a rookie at the 2, a defensively-challenged player at the 3, and a question mark at the 5. Bargnani developed nicely towards the end of last year, but this summer with the Italian team his progress seemed to stagnate. He isn’t good defensively (although he was showing improvement last season), and will be asked to carry a large load this year without Jermaine O’Neal to hide behind. He should benefit from playing one position all year, but will the team benefit out of it? Hedo Turkoglu, like Bargs, is a good offensive player. No-one doubts that. With Orlando last year he hit some monster shots, and generally was one of Orlando’s best players. That’s nothing to sneeze at. That said, defensive problems can be masked when you have Dwight Howard behind you. Offensive problems can be hidden much the same way. Turkoglu is 30 and isn’t exactly an ‘athlete’ by NBA standards. He had five dunks last year. He came from a team with one all world player, 1 all star, and a point guard who embarrassed Jose Calderon when the two clubs met up two years ago. As for DeRozan, yes he had a good final four last year. But look at his numbers from the whole season. Sure there was improvement, but he didn’t exactly blow people out of the water for the first half of the year. In fact, he didn’t do a lot of anything for the first 2-3 months of the season. The adjustment from college to the NBA is a much tougher transition than the transition from high school to college (especially considering that jump for him was from Compton High to USC, or a trip of about 22 minutes by car). How is he going to handle being on his own? How is he going to handle the responsibilities of being a man both on and off the court? How is he going to handle being asked to defend the Wades and Kobes of the world? Is too much being put on the young man’s plate at once? He’s shown himself to have a good attitude and seems to have all the tools, but asking a 20-year-old to put everything together for his first NBA game, or even season, is a bit much. He is very much a raw talent still.

The bench appears to be a source of strength for the Raptors, but looks can be deceiving. Jarrett Jack deserves minutes. Marco Belinelli and Amir Johnson need minutes to improve, as they are young and talented. Rasho Nesterovic and Reggie Evans were both good pickups for depth, but Rasho is getting up there in years. And while Reggie Evans gives 110% every time he’s on the floor, he just isn’t that skilled a ball player. Let’s take a look at last year’s stats – His rebounding rate is an outstanding 19.0% (meaning he grabs 19% of the available rebounds when he’s on the floor), but he has a turnover rate of 21.3% and a TS% of 51.4%, both of which are absolutely horrible for a big man. The man had a PER of only 10.4 and, considering the weight PER gives to rebounds, that is a red flag. You don’t need advanced statistics to understand Reggie’s limitations, though. Watch him play for just a few minutes and you will see a guy who stands out for his aggressive play, but is a liability on both offense and defense. He misses easy put-backs, fouls unnecessarily, and tries to do things he can’t do. I love the effort he brings and hope it’s contagious, but he can’t really be on the floor for longer than 10-12 minutes a game.

Sure the bench also has Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Quincy Douby, but realistically if the Raptors are counting on them for anything more than mop up duty, we’re all in a heap of trouble. The question facing Jay is how do you get the young guys minutes, while allowing the vets to play an important role (something all successful teams need) and keep everyone happy? Can you play Evans minutes that cripple the offense, even if he earns them through hard practices? What if Belinelli proves that Don Nelson was right to bury him on the bench in Golden State? Quincy Douby showed promise in summer league, but that’s meaningless. Amir Johnson has been in the league 4 years, and still hasn’t come close to this massive potential he is sitting on. The kid is loaded with talent, but it’s been 4 years and he hasn’t been able to put it together. After learning from Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Antonio McDyess, maybe the question shouldn’t be WHEN he is going to put it together, but rather WHY he hasn’t thus far. If he doesn’t get consistent (and stop fouling so much) soon, suddenly the bench is counting on the offensively challenged Evans, the elder statesman of Rasho, and the enigma of Patrick O’Bryant. Eep.

Additionally, if Belinelli, DeRozan, and Wright all prove to be unable to start at the 2 guard, suddenly the Raptors may be facing a situation where backup PG Jarrett Jack needs to do so. He proved to be capable at the 2 last season in Indiana, and there are advantages to having two floor generals on the court at once, but this is not ideal in all situations. Against bigger 2s, Jack is overmatched. His good defensive instincts can’t compensate for the fact that he’s only 6’3 and 200 pounds.

Moreover, in the NBA, all good teams have a go-to guy. I’m talking about guys who can carry a team to a win when everyone else is having an off night. Granted the Raptors have Bosh but, and I say this as both a Bosh and Raptors fan, how many times in the past 4 years has Bosh lifted the Raptors on his shoulders and carried the club to a win? What about Jose or Bargs? How many times did Hedo lift Orlando to wins? The Raptors just don’t have ‘that’ guy who can create his own shot and score at will. It’s been a hole since Carter left and it continues to be a hole today.

Health is also an issue. We saw what a hampered Jose meant to the Raptors in the wins/loss column, even though his individual stats were still pretty good. I know Jose took the summer off and is in perfect health now, but what if Jose misses time again? Or picks up a lingering injury? Sure that can be said of most teams starting point guards, but on the Raptors, a team that seems to be based on ball movement, that impact is much more profound. Jose is the captain of the ship, without him they’re rudderless. Then there’s Bosh. Bosh has been pushing himself HARD this off season, adding over 20 pounds of muscle. This seems like a good thing, until you remember that’s not Bosh’s body type. His body was never intended to pack on too much weight, and sometimes bulk can be a hindrance. We haven’t seen how this will impact his movement; will his post moves be slower? Will his shot be the same? What about his overall speed, one of his best attributes. Will he be able to run the court the same? And what if Bosh picks up a nick or two (as has been known to happen?). Bosh won’t want to sit and watch in a contract year; he will play unless he is physically unable to. Even if that means playing worse than he should. We also can’t forget with age comes increased probability of injury. The Raptors have a few guys who are up there in years: Jose, Evans, Rasho and Hedo are all over 28 and have fairly considerable miles on their bodies. An injury to any of those would have a pretty negative impact on the club.

Then there’s the opposition. Where do the Raptors fit in the East? The top 3 are still Orlando, Cleveland, Boston (in that order until proven otherwise it says here). Chicago looked very, very good at tiems last year and should only improve this year; especially if someone can find some electrodes to bring Luol Deng back to life. Detroit brought in Charlie V and Ben Gordon, plus Chris Wilcox to address some frontcourt problems. Washington is getting back Gilbert Arenas, plus got a number of very serviceable parts in the (now very, very one sided) trade of the 5th overall pick. Miami is still Miami. KG may have said it, but if any athlete truly embodies the “Anything is possible!” statement it’s Dwayne Wade. Beasley should improve this year too, which will help Wade, since he’s basically been a lone wolf for the past few seasons. Atlanta kept things together and also should have their young guys getting better. Charlotte looked pretty good towards the end of last season and with continuity they should improve their record. The Raptors are in the mix with all those teams, plus Philly and Indiana. With only five playoff spots available after the big 3, can we say with any certainty today that the Toronto Raptors are a lock for the playoffs? Well considering the Raptors today have never played a meaningful game together, I’d say no. Can I be proven wrong? Sure. I hope I am. But a playoff run would necessitate a lot of things going right for the Raptors and a lot of things going wrong for other clubs. So in the immortal words of The Wolf, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks just yet gentlemen.

Ah yes, a new season is upon us. It’s a time of wonderment, of unbridled optimism, of limitless possibilities. There are still a few weeks before the season starts and cold reality slaps the majority of the Association in the face, so I’m going to embrace the optimism. To those who know me, this is no surprise; optimism is practically my middle name. But this year just FEELS different for some reason. The Raptors have almost completely remade their team. With a new coach, new philosophy, new feel overall.

I firmly believe confidence is the most underrated intangible in sports. When teams get on a roll, each win seems to build on the last. That confidence allows for clarity in the last seconds of a chaotic game. It allows for proper plays to be run and shots to be taken properly, not rushed. Panic is the enemy of any coach. One of the biggest problems in the past for the Raptors was a lack of confidence. Of swagger. At the end of close games, particularly last year, you could feel the anxiety on the bench. Not a good look for a winner. So, why should this year be any different? Well, the Raps have a few things to build confidence around.

Firstly there’s Jay Triano. I’m an unabashed Smitch fan. I loved the intensity he brought to every game, to every play. I love how he expected the best out of every player in uniform and anything less would get your ass parked on the bench. That said, he wasn’t the greatest X’s and O’s guy. The lack of a proper plan on both offense and defense lead directly to many of the losses we encountered last year. Granted Smitch was gone by December, but unfortunately for Jay, it’s tough to implement a new philosophy mid-season. There just isn’t the practice time to change bad habits. This year, Jay is working with a blank slate. He has a defensive wizard to help him out (Iavaroni), and the confidence of being entrusted with helping prep the future Dream Teamers. Jay’s learned from the best, from Coach K to Jim Boeheim and Mike D’Antoni. Now, with a full training camp, he gets to pass everything he’s learned on to the Raptors, and frankly I’m excited to see what the guy can do. He’s definitely much more of a players’ coach, he’s good with the X’s and O’s and he brings a calmness to the bench. No matter what happens, he is in control. For the players on the court, that’s big. The player can look over to the bench and feed off that calmness, and that should translate into less panic on the court.

Next on the docket: the players who will be learning from Jay. One of the bonuses of the total remodelling of a franchise is that all bad habits are GONE. Everyone is starting fresh, everyone is on the same page. That’s one BIG good thing. The second is when you replace Jason Kapono with DeMar DeRozan, you get a huge upgrade all over the court. DeRozan was a decent defender and rebounder in college (I don’t think I need to mention his ups). Since then, all he’s done is add a ton of muscle and work his ass off in the practice gym. Bringing in Reggie Evans and Rasho Nesterovic are obviously a boost to the Raptors front court depth but their true value may be more in the intangible category. Every report out of Raptors training camp we’ve heard is how those two guys are forcing Bargnani to alter his game: to grow. They’re forcing him to work, to adapt, to bang, to fight on the court. We know about Bargnani’s emerging offensive prowess, but I’m looking for big things from him defensively. Hedo Turkoglu is not a good defender. There’s no two ways about it. Then again, before the JO trade the 3 was handled mostly by Jamario Moon. Nothing against Jamario, but if he is starting for your NBA team, missing the playoffs should not be coming as a surprise. Basically: if Turk can score 18+ points most games, the extra offense will make up for the step back on defense. Jose on the other hand is a mediocre defender who had a terrible year in 2008-2009. Last year, he was hampered with a bad hamstring (word on the street is it was an over 2-inch tear), which basically made it impossible for him to stay in front of his man. Having him back at full health is an improvement over last year defensively at the point. So the starting 5 overall loses some defense because of Hedo, but there should be improvement from within at the 1 and the 5. As far as rebounding goes, losing Shawn Marion is obviously painful to the team rebounding effort, especially when considering his replacement is Turk. But, remember they replaced the Parker/Kapono combo with DeRozan/Wright, plus replaced Voskuhl/Mensah-Bonsu with Nesterovic/Evans/Johnson. Time will tell, but I’d say with all these changes, it’s a wash or maybe a slight improvement on the boards. The wild card in that is DeRozan. He has the abilities, he just has to make the most of them.

And speaking of Rasho/Reggie/ Amir, the Raps’ 2nd unit is ready for war. With these guys, plus Wright, Jarret Jack, Sonny Weems, Patrick O’Bryant, Quincy Douby and Marco Belinelli coming off the bench, the Raptors have options. This group includes some good defenders and rebounders. There’s some offense here, as well. Jack proved to be a more than effective point guard last season. Amir Johnson is one of my favourite underrated players in the Association. He’s an athletic monster who goes hard every second he’s on the court. If there’s a loose ball near the hoop, watch out. He’s going up HARD. Rasho is Rasho, he has proved his worth over the years. All in all, I’ll go so far as to say the Raptors 2nd unit could be as strong as any in the Association. The bench’s main impact though will be at the end of games, in my opinion. I’m not sold on opponent’s FG% as a really great stat for one simple reason: a stop at the end of the game is worth more than a stop in the first quarter. The Raptors lost so many games in the last minute last year that it made my head and heart hurt. My liver didn’t talk to me for weeks after the season ended. If the Raptors now have the ability to sub in a few lockdown defenders for a big defensive stand, that is worth than a few extra wins this season. Especially when you pair this with the improved offense the Raptors bring to the court. The example I gave my cohort on this blog James was, say a team has in general a good defensive game. They give up in three quarters an average of 23 points against. But they blow up one quarter and give up 35 points. The opponent’s FG% might not be that bad, but that still would count in my book as a bad defensive game (for me, a defensive collapse in the 4th causing a loss is always going to be a bad game). Go check tape of the first Nets/Raptors game last year. Granted, the Nets played well in the 2nd half, but if Carter wasn’t left open not once but TWICE at the end of the game, the Raptors probably win. And by probably I mean almost certainly. In fact, I don’t want to talk about this. I feel sick again.

How can I make myself feel better…. oh yeah! The Raptors offense is, in a word: wow. Jose back at full health to distribute the ball; DeRozan flying all over the court, tracking down loose balls, throwing down dunks and generally slicing through the defense; Bosh with his newly developed size and desire to get to the post more; Bargnani with his continued growth from last year and the Turk impact to hit big shots and find open teammates make the Raptors starting 5 INCREDIBLY dangerous. All can shoot, all can pass, all can get to the basket. If any team tries to double team any single Raptor, watch out. These guys can and will find an open man, and he can and will make the right shots and passes. The bench gives numerous different looks as well. Amir Johnson is a beast around the basket offensively (youtube him – if you’ve never really watched him before, get ready to fall in love, Toronto). Belinelli can shoot and is an underrated ball handler. Jack is worthy of being a starting 1 or 2 on some teams. He can handle the ball, he can shoot, he can get into traffic in the lane, he’s tenacious, he wants to win, and he’s a natural leader. The sky is honestly the limit for this club on offense. I don’t have anything else to say about it. It should be a masterpiece.

That is the biggest reason the Raptors will be amongst the top tier of the Eastern Conference this year. The Raptors, unlike most teams, and unlike what conventional wisdom or any basketball coach worth his salt would normally say, can win giving up over 100 points a game. Why? Because the Raptors can score 110 a game and not blink. The team is almost impossible to defend. They will shoot a high percentage. They have guys who will fight and scrap for loose balls. They have lockdown defenders and veteran leaders on the bench, they have a healthy Jose Calderon looking to rebound, and most importantly, they have Bosh. Bosh took last year as a personal insult. He wants to be the best. He wants to be the 3rd guy next summer in the Wade/LeBron talk. The only way for that to happen isn’t to improve his own stats (which are already pretty mind-blowing), but to improve the overall success of the team. Bosh needs to prove that he can lead a team to wins, to the playoffs, and beyond. If he wants to seriously be considered in the LeBron/Wade conversation there is no other way. Bosh knows this. He saw success coming from the post rather than the elbow, so he bulked up to stay healthy enough to bang under the hoop all year. He has 4 guys to pass the ball to who are dangerous players. And most importantly, the dirty secret of the Raptors this year: Bosh doesn’t need to carry the team to wins. If Bosh has an off night there are enough other weapons that can carry this club. Bosh won’t be counted on to break down defences as time winds down on the game clock now that Turk is around. Bosh won’t be forced to backup at center due to injuries, thanks to the depth that currently exists up front. He won’t be seeing as many double teams due to the overall firepower of the club (who gets left open – Jose? Bargnani? Turk? DeRozan?). All Bosh has to worry about this year is himself. So to recap: Healthy Jose, HIGHLY motivated Bosh, improved Bargnani, upgrade at EVERY SINGLE OTHER POSITION, except possibly defence and rebounding at the starting 3 (but improvement off the bench and in other spots).

So where are the extra wins to get the Raptors into the playoffs coming from? Well, the rest of the Eastern Conference may not be as strong as advertised when you look at it closely. Miami is counting on Jermaine O’Neal’s health this year (check his quotes – it’s freaking groundhog day for him) – any Raptors fan can tell Heat supporters how that’s going to go. Philadelphia got worse, Atlanta stayed the same, Boston has to seriously start looking at life without KG being KG (if they don’t have him at or near full strength, there’s no sugar-coating it, they will be much worse), the Knicks actually might have gotten worse (if that’s possible) and the Nets definitely did. In fact, the only teams that improved are Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington and Chicago. Charlotte’s improvement MIGHT net them the 8th seed, Orlando and Cleveland were already one and two in the east. So that means two teams in direct competition with the Raps improved, while 6 or 7 either stayed the same or got worse. Including potentially every team in the Raptors division. Even if the Raptors had thrown out the same line-up as last year, they’d probably improve by 2-3 spots, but they aren’t throwing out the same team. The Raptors are throwing out potentially the best offense in the entire Association. 4 more wins last year and the Raptors leapfrog Indiana, Charlotte, New Jersey and Milwaukee. All of whom got worse this offseason. 7 more wins and they leapfrog Detroit (who may or may not have jumped off a cliff this offseason) and make the playoffs.

I went through last season’s results and picked out some losses that don’t sit well with me. Last season, the Raptors lost 129-127 to New Jersey in OT (in a game that could arguably go down as the worst loss in franchise history); 98-97 to Portland. They lost to Detroit, Philly, New Orleans, New Jersey again (by 7), Golden State (by 6), Milwaukee by 10, Indiana by 7, Milwaukee AGAIN by 11, MEMPHIS by 8 (scoring 70 points), the Knicks by 30 (the freaking Knicks!), Detroit by 4 in OT, Charlotte by 13 and Charlotte by 26 back to back (!), the Knicks by 9, Indiana by 29, and Washington by 2. Theoretically, every one of those should be a win. Obviously teams lose games they should win all the time, but that right there is 19 games that could easily have been wins. If they had won 9, suddenly the Raptors were 42 and 40 and in the 6th spot.

Last year, the Raptors scored 99 PPG and allowed 102. Even if the team defence doesn’t improve from last year (and I think it will), the offense scoring 106+ points a game translates to wins. Pure and simple. Even if that’s only an extra 4 or 5 that they would have lost last year, add those with the loses that were games thrown away last year and suddenly the Raptors are looking at 46-47 wins and the 4th spot overall. Is it that easy? Absolutely it is. The competition got worse and the team got better. Good teams beat the teams that they should beat. This club is built to withstand injury. This club is built to score. And this club is being moulded right now into a team that can play passable defense. The injection of heart (guys like Evans and Rasho, plus the extra motivation of Jose and Bosh to prove to themselves and the world that they are among the best ballers in the world) and leadership also boost the intangible qualities of the club. With a little confidence and some swagger to go with it, the kind that can only come from seeing success and building on it, and this could be a team to fear. If they get on a roll, watch out. This is a good team, now they just have to prove it.