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Oh when it all, it all falls down. I’m telling you ohh, it all falls down…

Seasons come and seasons go. As sports fans we are conditioned to have short term memories, reactions and expectations. When TFC missed the playoffs last year I was upset for 2 days before throwing myself headfirst into a new Leafs and Raptors season. When the Leafs season ended in disappointment I celebrated by throwing myself into the world beating Blue Jays (disclaimer: that title has a timed expiration date of… well, probably 2 weeks). This Raptors season for me, I don’t know. I can deal with bad teams, lord knows I’ve seen plenty coming out of the T-dot over the past few years. I can deal with teams underachieving, again, lord knows I’ve seen plenty of that coming out of the 416 area. What I don’t know if I can deal with is a collapse of epic proportions that screws several other teams and fan bases in the process. I don’t know if, as a sports fan, I WANT the Raptors to make the playoffs today. It feels… dirty that they even still have a chance.

Sunday’s game against the Bulls was for all intents and purposes a play-in game for the playoffs. Single elimination, win or go home. Not only did the Raps not win, they didn’t even have to bother with the Go Home part since they never bothered showing up at the office anyway. The Bulls won the biggest game of the year; they’ve earned the right to make the post season as a result. After all, now that it’s the last game of the season and the Dinos need but a single more win and some help from Charlotte to be home safe in the playoffs, we can take a look back at some of the Raptors handiwork.

Losing by 1 on November 15 to Phoenix, on the road. (Remember the optimism? That warm and fuzzy feeling?)

Anyone remember December 1, when the Raps lost by 4 at home to the Wizards? Or the next game; when they decided to forgo the first game of a road trip and lost by 31 points to Atlanta?

How about blowing a massive second-half lead on January 11 in Indiana, eventually losing 105-101? Or the game they could have taken vengeance on those same Pacers, instead giving up over 40 points in the 3rd quarter on Feb 2, losing 130-115?

March 7, losing to Philly by 13 points.

March 10, losing to Sacramento by 23. TWENTY-THREE!

March 13, losing to Golden State by 12.

The terrible effort in Miami on March 28, losing by 3.

Losing AGAIN to Golden State, this time at home on April 4, after Bosh missed a layup to win the game at the buzzer.

Even after all of those loses and terrible efforts, the Raptors STILL could have sewn up a playoff slot and a matchup with the LeBrons with a win on Sunday against the Bulls. Yes, Bosh was hurt and not playing. Yes, same with Wright. And yes, Turkoglu was not only hurt, but playing (the worst possible outcome). Had the guys wearing White shown any real fight or heart, it’d be excusable that they lost. Especially given the injury situation Jay Triano was presented with. Instead, well, we saw nothing. In the biggest game of the year the Raptors got the yips. 21 3 point attempts, 5 made. 15 trips to the free-throw line. All game. More 3 point attempts than free-throws. Again, I realize Bosh was out injured and he is the driving force of the Raptors (literally), but that’s just inexcusable in my books. After losing by 18 in what was essentially an NCAA tournament game, losing twice to the Golden State Warriors, losing by 23 to Sacramento, the 2 blown leads in Indiana, how can any self respecting Raptors fan say that this is a team that deserves to be in the playoffs?

Much ado in Toronto has been made of the Cavs playing LeBron in the game against the Raptors last week, while sitting him against the Bulls. I’ve heard claims of how it discredits the game, and is an embarrassment to sport etc. That’s the biggest load of crap I’ve ever heard. If Cleveland is so secure in its playoff seed that it can affect who they play in the first round of the playoffs, then they’ve earned that right. Conversely, if the Raptors in the last week of the season are relying on other teams to help them make the playoffs, they’ve earned an extra month of vacation. A season isn’t made over the last week or two, it’s made from game 1 to game 82 (or 86). Over that span, the Raptors have showed themselves to be extremely talented offensively, lazy defensively, unwilling or unable to rebound, mentally soft, poorly structured (Hi Hedo!) and partially snake-h bitten (the Bosh injury really couldn’t have come at a worse time). As a sports fan I find it somewhat disgraceful to have to watch my team, a team that by adding up the total of its parts SHOULD easily be a 5th seed in the Eastern conference, rely on other teams help to have a prayer of making the playoffs.

And you, reader: As a sports fan, if the Raptors defy the odds and somehow make the playoffs after no showing in the biggest game of the year, would you feel that the Raps have earned their playoff spot? Would you be able to look a Bulls fan in the eye, or a Rockets fan for that matter, and say, “Sorry about that, thems the breaks”? I couldn’t. I already feel dirty from this whole season. This wasn’t a team that underachieved. This was a club that overachieved at underachieving. Winning games they should lose, losing games they should win, seemingly at random. Earlier this year I wrote something detailing in short that the difference between playoff teams and non playoff teams isn’t beating the upper echelon teams, it’s beating the bottom feeders. The teams that you are better than or equal to. Think about it in real terms: If you and Brad Pitt are both trying to pick up the same girl and he gets her in the end, you can’t be mad. right? I mean he’s Brad Pitt for god’s sake! But if you and Dustin Diamond are both trying to pick up the same girl and Dustin Diamond wins, maybe it’s time for some serious self-reflection. This season, the Raps didn’t even get the cojones to try and talk to the girl, let alone buy her a drink. And sure, maybe Hedo was a little gun-shy after all the shut downs in Yorkville, but as I’ve stated ad nauseum, Toronto sports fans in particular don’t care about results nearly as much as effort. Show us you care, show us you try. The Raps haven’t shown anyone that they care, nor have they shown an ability to try consistently.

Don’t get me wrong, tonight I’ll be cheering for the Raps and the Bobcats as hard as I can. But after the game, should it all break down the way I hope (both Raptors and Cats win) instead of gloating to my Bulls friends, I’ll be apologizing. We’d have robbed them. Even though we’d have gotten the prize in the end, it’d take a long time (or a few SHOCKING wins) to wash the blood off our hands. I know what it feels like to cheer for a team that deserves to make the playoffs and doesn’t, I’m a Jays fan. I’ve seen it every 3 years since 1994. The 2009/2010 Raptors are not that team, and Bulls’ fan base doesn’t deserve that kind of end.

Sports is a funny thing. It’s like real life, only it’s not real life. We are drawn to sports because it is a microcosm for life. We get to play voyeur and watch a person develop from a kid to a man to a grown-ass man. We see him learn the ways of the world on his journey from being a wide-eyed rookie to a hardened, smart veteran. The other thing we like about sports is, unlike real life, there are clear winners and losers.

Since wins and losses are black and white and our lives are constantly filled with various shades of gray, real life/sports comparisons don’t normally hold up. When I felt lazy at my previous job, I’d sometimes think to myself, “I’m no better than that whiny, entitled bitch named Vince Carter.” This isn’t really an apt comparison, though. There are surely mitigating circumstances – Vince had reasons for his behaviour and they are probably totally different than the reasons for mine.

As far as mitigating circumstances go, there are none better than those annoying things we need to do our work but have no control over: our co-workers. In real life work settings, no matter what our industry, job or pay scale, we all know some people who just drive us up the wall. The people who have seniority and don’t seem to ever do anything other than hang out by the coffee machine. The people who never get asked to do ‘special projects’, who seem to escape the criticism that accompanies the rest of the employees. The people that seem ‘untouchable’. The people who never seem to do anything, but when it’s job cutting time they always seem safe and when it’s pay raise time they always show up. And while they never show up with a bunch of coffees for the rest of us, they’ll be first in line when someone brings in a box of doughnuts.

You know someone like this, I know someone like this, we all know someone like this. Well, the Toronto Raptors have someone like this. His name is Hedo Turkoglu.

I had an ex-girlfriend who was obsessed with this karma and energy stuff. Since she believed in it so strongly, I’d have to hear about it fairly often. One of her favourite target in her rants was the “energy vampire,” someone who manages to sap other people of their strength and energy. My opinion was that it was a bunch of crap (I kept that to myself since I am sane – telling your girl she’s crazy tends to not work out well). That was until I met the person I described above. No, not Hedo Turkoglu, the person at my previous work who made it so unbearable to work there that I had to tell my boss off and walk out.

Before it got to that point, I (at that point the hardest working member of my ‘team’) lost all will to work. The work environment became hopeless. Here I was, a competent and capable worker putting in a full day’s work every day and loving the challenge whilst other people took a more laid back attitude. It didn’t bother me much because we were all equal and if I’m stuck at a desk for 9 hours every day I’d rather be busy than not. Besides, I love having responsibility. Even if I wasn’t making any more money than the rest of my small team, I enjoyed ultimately being responsible for our relative success.

This lasted for almost 2 years, until a small promotion shook things up. One of my better friends received what was essentially a promotion in title only, no added job duties and a very small raise. My boss however, in his wisdom, decided that my friend would be too busy to continue doing his old duties and that they would have to be moved to the most capable person on the team. I got all of them.

Again, I didn’t mind this since I love responsibility and a good challenge. Life continued on normally but when it was my turn to talk to the boss about what my raise would be, I was told there was no room in the budget to give me a raise. Despite my doing about half of my boss’s job and all of the newly promoted guys’ jobs on top of my own job that already involved more time and energy than anyone else’s.

My thinking was, “Fine, there is a recession and money is tight.” So everything remained good in Eric’s World. The problems didn’t start until I found out that the laziest, most frequent absentee person in our team had managed to get a 5% raise. This guy was the weak link; he would nap and frequently use his cell phone at work. He passed off work to other people after he’d been too lazy to do it himself, ruining people’s days. After a few months of this, the rest of us began lobbying for him to be moved. Six months of the entire team lobbying for the guy to be removed and he got the raise the rest of us were denied.

Suddenly, our little team was far from equal. Two of our six were making fairly substantially more money than the other four, despite the other four of us doing roughly 85% of the work. That’s when the laziness started creeping in for me. I explained to my boss that I didn’t have time in the day to complete all the tasks I had on my plate. “Fine,” my boss said. “You do a lot, let’s shuffle some responsibilities around.” A band-aid was put on the situation.

The problem really began when the newest member of the “I got a raise” club saw what I had done and went and tried telling my boss the same thing… SUCCESSFULLY! He managed to get half of his work passed off to the other three people who were already over-worked. Now not only had I become lazy but the other three members of our ‘team’ became lazy and, worse, disgruntled. The first person to leave was a friend of mine named Ragoo. She told off our boss something fierce on the way out. Since she quit, naturally there was work to be split up. Which was split between myself and the other two remaining competent workers.

Within six weeks all four of us who actually functioned at work were gone. In January I was told that my boss fired my friend who had been promoted and our department, which had previously been the best of roughly 20 others in a national company, was now consistently near the bottom. In three months one lazy guy receiving a raise managed to cause four good employees to quit and one good employee to get fired. My experience there is why I’ve been sounding alarm bells about Turkoglu for so long.

I am a notorious homer. I defend the Vernon Wells contract. I defended Wade Belak. I defended Milt Palacio. There generally isn’t a single person who wears a Toronto jersey I won’t support. I may not support the management who brought them in, but anyone who plays for my team is someone who is part of my extended family. After all, if a player is in over their heads, it’s not his fault he is being put in a situation he can’t handle. Players are at the mercy of a coach and general manager and no-one guaranteed that the people in those positions are always going to be competent.

An athlete’s job is simply to show up and do their best. That’s it. As long as they meet that modest modicum of success for athletes I have, I will have their backs any day of the week. So what if Vernon Wells is overpaid? True, his offense has dried up, but who’s been protecting him in the line-up? He is still one of the best defensive centre fielders in baseball and he hustles out every ground ball. Again, it’s not his fault JP “I’m functionally retarded” Riccardi wasn’t able to find a single decent power hitter in 8 years.

Turkoglu on the other hand doesn’t even PRETEND to be busy when the boss walks by. He IS the jackass from my office who got a 5% raise despite being useless and after getting the raise managed to do even less. In real terms, a 5% raise on a $25 000 salary isn’t even very much money, and it wasn’t a results-oriented business. In sports, his lack of effort directly affects the ability of his teammates to do well, and in turn directly affects their own abilities to earn raises. Not to mention that his pay isn’t a few hundred dollars more than his colleagues, but millions of dollars.

How is Antoine Wright supposed to feel going into a free agent year, when he is killing himself for his team but can’t get minutes over someone who not only doesn’t pretend to try but doesn’t pretend to care, let alone pretend to actually be productive.

How are Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans supposed to feel when they both have half the skills of Turkoglu, yet work five times as hard while making one-fifth of his overall salary?

How is Andrea Bargnani supposed to improve when he sees his closest comparison on the team, a potential mentor for him, spend his days loafing around and acting lackadaisical?

How is Chris Bosh supposed to feel when he sees the guy who was supposed to be his second banana, the missing piece on a talented team, playing and acting like he’s on a stroll with his wife? Bosh is a guy who looks like he goes home and practically cries after every loss, you don’t think his main help on the court not ever showing up might upset him after a while?

How is Jay Triano supposed to feel knowing he HAS to play Turkoglu lest Turk become MORE of a disruptive force in the locker room? Knowing if he doesn’t find a way to turn Turk into SOMETHING somewhat effective he could get in trouble with HIS boss for not utilizing a $50 million asset?

How are Jarret Jack, Jose Calderon, Demar DeRozan, Sonny Weems and the rest of the roster supposed to feel when they’re asked to defer to a glorified pylon with legs? What are they supposed to think when they watch Turk again not bother to get a hand up? Again not hustle back on defence? Again laugh off a bad loss and a bad effort? We’ve all heard basketball commentators talk about how energy is contagious; doesn’t that mean the inverse is true too? If I was a professional athlete getting sat behind someone who loafed around but was very well paid, and thus needs to be on the floor, to say I would be displeased would be akin to saying Kevin Garnett doesn’t enjoy losing very much.

I like to think of myself as a bit of a realist. While we like to think of athletes in different terms than ordinary people, ultimately they ARE ordinary people who just happen to be extraordinarily skilled. I wouldn’t expect a pro athlete’s mental makeup to be too different from my own. Are they mentally tougher, stronger and basically everything more than me? Of course, they’re pro athletes. But they are still humans and we’re all wired using the same technology. My reaction when I saw laziness being rewarded was to gradually stop caring. I was mentally tough enough that it didn’t poison the work environment for me, I still enjoyed coming in every day, but the rest of my team didn’t. Not only did they stop caring but they began to loathe the company. They began to loathe coming in to work every day. I don’t know that this is the situation that the Raptors are dealing with, but I have a hunch that it is.

Sports is a results-oriented business and the recent results speak for themselves. The other day, after weeks of crappy effort and blowouts, Turkoglu didn’t play against the Denver Nuggets. Against one of the top teams in the league conventional wisdom said another probably bigger blowout was on the horizon, but somehow the Raptors found an energy and effort that had been lacking since the All Star break. What changed? Well, Turk wasn’t there. There’s a different energy, a different vibe around the team that just disappears when Turk-a-do-do is around. Not just last game but also in the various other times that Turk was away from the club for his varied and borderline plausible reasons. While my theory as to his laziness and lack of emotion may be wrong I don’t think that any Raps fan could disagree that there is a different vibe around the Raptors when Turk isn’t there.

As a result of this, Turkoglu has reached new ground in my history of sportsfandom. I am, and have been for some time, cheering for him to get seriously hurt. When I say hurt, I mean as in out for the season hurt. I’ve never wished that on the players that I’ve ever ‘hated’ in my life, let alone a player on my own team.

Sports is similar to real life, after all. Again, we all know people who we love working with but, god bless ‘em, they just aren’t great at their jobs. And, no matter how great of a person they are, YOUR life would be much easier if they were in a different department or a different job entirely. There’s no inconsistency in real life with liking someone as a person but not as a coworker. That’s how I view sports hatred. When I talk about hating athletes I’m talking about hating them as an athlete, not as a person. I’ve never met Vince Carter. I don’t know what kind of man he really is, if he’s cool to hang out with, or if he’s generous with his time and money away from cameras. I only know him as an athlete. As such I loved him as an athlete and now I hate him as an athlete. While I may drunkenly scream obscenities at him from my seat, I’d probably very politely say hi and thank him for his time in Toronto if I saw him on the street, despite my ‘hatred’ of him.

Turk however has transcended sports hate for me. I have realized that I legitimately hate Hedo Turkoglu. If I saw him walking down the street I would either scream obscenities, spit, or just turn red and walk away to avoid somehow making him worse. Remember, this man plays for MY Toronto Raptors! Turkoglu has managed to personify everything I hate about modern athletes. Entitlement? Check. He needs the ball to be effective, doncha know. Laziness after a big contract? Check and check, no explanation required. Lack of hustle and emotion? BIG check. But hey, jogging 60-70 feet to get back on defence once every ten to fifteen minutes IS something. Lack of desire to fit in to a ‘team’, and a system? “Ball”. I’d call him a mercenary but mercenaries are actually EFFECTIVE.

I’m no coach or General Manager, hell I’m not even a real writer, but I know a problem when I see one and I know a solution when I see one. The only addressable problem the Raptors have is Turkoglu, assuming Bargnani continues to develop, particularly on the glass. This Energy Vampire is a cancer that has infected the locker room and the only solution is to operate and remove the cancer permanently. Whether that’s through injury (paging Shane Stant, Shane Stant there is a phonecall for you), trade or even in a worst case scenario a buyout he needs to be as far from the Toronto Raptors as possible. I mean restraining order far. This team will NEVER be able to succeed as presently structured unless Turk makes a serious attitude change.

The Raptors are an emotionally fragile team. Maybe on Orlando it didn’t matter if Turk had a bad attitude or was lazy. After all, Dwight’s personality is a bit strong if you hadn’t noticed. He’d be happy if you told him he had to get 4 teeth pulled. But Toronto isn’t Orlando and Chris Bosh isn’t Dwight Howard. Bosh is a brooder, from what I can see. He WANTS to win. Scratch that, he NEEDS to win. He’s the type to dwell on losses to attempt to figure out what he could possibly have done to change the outcome of the game. He lives and dies with the success of his team. And when he sees his teammates uncaring while he goes home and agonizes over what he has to do to make the team win, it has to hurt. And what hurts him hurts the whole team. And what hurts the whole team hurts the city. And me. So please Mr Colangelo, I’m begging you. Remove this cancer from me; it’s eating away my insides. If this cancer isn’t cleared up, I fear Bosh will have to flee for safety. And so might I.

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I don’t have the exact date that this conversation occurred, believe me I wish I did, but sometime towards late November or early December I was talking to James about the Raptors’ struggles. I looked at the calendar, saw the teams the Raptors were playing from January 27 to February 24, and got excited. All we had to do, I kept insisting, was stay afloat through the tough stretch, and eventually we would get to the “Month of winning”. A concept most Raptors fans are fairly familiar with by now. A cursory glance at the Raptors schedule shows home games against such quality opponents as the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Kings, 76ers, Grizzlies, and Wizards. Add to that the only road games to be found were trips to Madison Square Garden, Conseco Fieldhouse and the Izod Center. You can see why I’m dubbing it the Month of Winning (MOW).

At the time I was talking to James, I figured the best-case scenario is that the Raptors would be .500 heading in to that stretch of games, and a nice 7-3 or 8-2 record would allow them to easily coast to the playoffs in the 7^th or 8^th seed where they would get spanked by whoever happened to finish 1^st or 2^nd overall. I thought I was being optimistic. Well, the Raptors showed me what optimism really is, setting up for the “MOW” by beating San Antonio, Orlando, Dallas and the Lakers. More importantly than those wins, and the wins over the Heat, Knicks and Pacers, was how the team played. In my optimistic prediction of the Raptors’ season, I spoke about swagger. About the ability to get clutch stops even if the overall defensive numbers weren’t great. I hoped those things would eventually happen, but didn’t really expect them to. Well, I sure as hell didn’t expect them to become staples of wins in January. I also didn’t expect the Leafs to crap the bed again, and the city of Toronto to rally around a rag-tag group of players playing .500 basketball, holding the 5^th seed in the East. Even I, the eternal optimist, am consistently amazed and surprised by the ways the Raptors find ways to win. Winning by gutting out efforts, playing tough physical ball down low, passing the ball around to find open looks, shutting down super-duper stars in crunch time. Guys jumping up and down on the bench, sell out crowds going so crazy that Phil Jackson himself mentions it.

All of the above has me re-evaluating my expectations for the rest of the season. In addition to the Raps’ creampuff schedule over the next stretch, the division-leading Celtics seem to be a bit adrift. Age seems to have caught up REALLY fast with Doc Rivers Big Three. Now, the only reason the Celtics are even competitive in most games is Rajon Rondo. Without him, who knows where they would be? We looked at the Raptors schedule through February (well not completely, they finish off the month playing Portland, Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Assuming they win 1 of those games, the Raptors will win 7 or 8 games that month), but what about Boston’s? Well friends, Boston gets screwed. They start off with a few winnable games, Washington (tomorrow, coming off a back to back. In Washington), Miami and New Jersey are visiting the Toronto Dominion Garden. After that, the poop hits the fan. Home to Orlando, then a 5 game 11 day road trip to New Orleans, Sacramento, the Lakers, Portland and Denver, before coming back home to face New York, Cleveland and New Jersey. Boston would probably be satisfied winning 5 or 6 games in the month of February.

Wait a minute. If Boston wins 5 or 6 games in February, and the Raptors win 7 or 8, that means, that means, by the end of the month the Raptors could be shocking the basketball world and being 2.5 games out of the division lead, and the home court advantage in the playoffs it brings. What? In fact, by Feb 21^st (the Celtics last game of the West Coast trip), the Raptors could be only a SINGLE GAME out of the division lead. WHAT?! Are the Raptors good enough to win this division? It’s starting to look possible. Unfortunately Raptors fans, it is still the Celtics title to lose and I don’t see them giving up their hold on the division crown just quite yet. The Raps still have lessons to learn, and winnable games will still slip away. No, the Raptors will almost assuredly finish the regular season in 5^th place. Which could end up having dire consequences for the Raptors.

The problem is simple, of the four teams in that group atop of the Eastern Conference there are 2 teams that match up very favourably for the Raptors. Cleveland and Orlando are both structured in such ways as to be vulnerable to the Dino’s. It would take an upset, no debating that, but both the Cavs and Magic can be beaten by the Raptors, as we’ve seen from contests thus far (well, assuming the Cavs don’t upgrade from Jamario Moon to Andre Iguodala – that’d change things slightly). Atlanta and Boston however, are quite the opposite. Cavs/Magic vs. the Raps is probably going to be a 6 or 7 game series that could go either way. You know, the type of series that’s decided in the last two to three minutes of every game. I would be shocked if it took more than 5 games for either the C’s or Hawks to dispatch the Raptors. The problem: as it stands today, one of those two teams IS going to finish fourth. Unless, that is, Boston turns their season around, Orlando starts losing games, or Atlanta goes crazy winning/goes crazy losing. Any one of those scenarios coming to pass would create a situation where the Raptors could win their first playoff series in almost a decade.

The question for Raps fans then, is which scenario do you cheer for? Well, if Atlanta slows down and drops to 5^th, the Raptors could wind up 4^th. That’s no good. Home court advantage only comes into play in game 7. The series needs to GET to game 7 before that’s a factor. I am of the belief that no true Raptors fan can cheer for Boston under any circumstances, even selfish ones. The Celtics could be playing the all-stars from Moron Mountain for all I care, still not cheering for them. So that’s out. That leaves a single scenario: Raps fans should be cheering against the Magic and for the Hawks as hard as possible. Lemme lay this scenario out for you; try it on for size.

The East finishes like so: Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, Orlando, Toronto, Miami, Charlotte, Chicago. The winner of Orlando/Toronto would go on to play the winner of Cleveland/Chicago. Or just Cleveland (ya, I’m going on a BIG limb here). That means back to back winnable series for the Raptors, avoiding the bad matchups until the Eastern Conference finals. Unlikely, incredibly unlikely. The odds are against the Raptors in each series, and I’m no mathematician but I’m pretty sure odds compound when you place them in a sequence like that. However, just because something is unlikely doesn’t mean it’s impossible. In fact, should the East finish that way, an Atlanta/Toronto eastern conference final would not be that much of a stretch, and who would have seen THAT one coming.

Unlikely, again, but not impossible. The Raptors are what they are. They aren’t an elite team (yet), but if I’m coaching a team in the East I do not want to play a team that can score like the Raps can, nor one that can win games in such a variety of games. No, these ain’t your older brothers Raptors. There are going to be ups and downs the rest of the way, but hang with them. The Raptors are a better team than they seemed in November and December and they’re probably a worse team then they’ve seemed in January. But they might not be. That’s the hope we have to hold on to. That, and the hope that Atlanta passes Orlando. Toronto hasn’t asked much of the Sports Gods, well that’s a lie, I’ll try again. Toronto hasn’t received much from the Sports Gods in the past 16 years. For some reason though, 2010 just FEELS different. In 7 Seconds Or Less, after the Suns come to Toronto to play their former General Managers new team for the first time, then assistant coach Alvin Gentry commented that “They [the Raptors] are the Chevrolet version of what we are”. Meaning the Raps were a high octane team without a high octane ride. Well right now this Chevy’s riding high. And I’m going to enjoy the view.

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July 3, 2009, Adrian Wojnarowski:

“Turkoglu had agreed on a five-year, $50 million deal with the Blazers, but changed his mind and is headed for a five-year, $53 million deal with the Raptors. Toronto would have to renounce three free agents – Shawn Marion, Carlos Delfino and Anthony Parker – to create the cap space for Turkoglu.”

This is a surprise, and I’m not happy. It’s not that Turkoglu is a bad player; it’s that I think this is a bad signing. He’s 30 already, was never really worth $10 million a year, and the thought of renouncing all the free agents and losing the right to use the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions makes me sick. Assuming everything goes forward as I expect it to, my home team will look like this:

PG: Jose Calderon, Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Chris Bosh, Reggie Evans, Kris Humphries
C: Andrea Bargnani, Patrick O’Bryant

Of course, that’s only 10 guys. 11 if you count guard Quincy Douby, who is on the team but has a contract is not guaranteed. The remainder of the roster must be filled with minimum salary players. And while it is certainly possible to Morey it, finding a rotation player with only a minimum deal at your disposal is a difficult thing to do.

The roster has gaping holes. Point guard depth, wing play, rebounding, and athleticism were lacking in 2008-2009. The only player I’d be comfortable calling a “good defender” here is the third-string point guard. As much as I love the DeMar DeRozan pick, I am terrified of counting on just him and minimum salary guys to fix all of this. Turkoglu represents an offensive upgrade over Shawn Marion, but downgrading in rebounding and defense makes little sense for this squad.

I don’t see this team making the playoffs and, if I’m right, I don’t see Chris Bosh wanting to stay in Toronto. And if I’m right about that, well… fuck. I don’t want to be right about that. He might be the best player this franchise has ever had and I can’t bear to see him leave as he approaches his prime. Blah.

July 9, 2009, Chad Ford & Marc Stein:

The Dallas Mavericks and Toronto Raptors, living up to the wild tenor of the past few weeks in the NBA, have hatched a complicated sign-and-trade arrangement that went through numerous constructions Wednesday before resulting in an agreement in principle that will send Shawn Marion to Dallas and absorb the Raptors’ much-anticipated signing of Hedo Turkoglu.

This is a surprise, and… wow. Memphis facilitated another big deal? Didn’t Otis Smith say he wouldn’t do a sign-and-trade? Antoine Wright’s coming, too? Devean George’s agent can’t nix this, right?

The deal means that the Raptors don’t have to renounce their free agents and they get to keep their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. Bryan Colangelo was prepared to fill the roster out with minimum salary guys, but now he doesn’t have to. Suddenly, the future isn’t quite so bleak. I still don’t like Turkoglu’s contract, but he can play. Anthony Parker’s rumoured to be headed to Cleveland, but he loves Toronto and maybe he’ll spurn them like Turk spurned Portland. Delfino’s a decent wing guy and it seems like he wants to come back. I’ve heard Rasho Nesterovic would probably take the bi-annual exception and this team could use his post defense. And there are a handful of players I’d love to sign with the mid-level.

I wonder if Colangelo had been trying to do this all along. It seems crazy that Orlando would help out an Eastern Conference rival like this for a trade exception they might not use. The Raptors have a chance to have a pretty good off-season now. Thank you to whoever gave BC this idea.

July 10, 2009, Dave Feschuk:

“After (the league) said yes … I said, `I’m stunned. This is the first time any of my crazy ideas have ever passed muster with you guys.’ I’ve had a lot of them over the years, `Can we possibly do this, this and this?’ And (the lawyers will) eventually find something to stop it. When they actually said yes, I was very surprised.” – Steve Fruitman

Here’s the guy I have to thank. Of course, it took number-crunching from four teams (five if you include the Chicago Bulls, the team that didn’t end up in the final version of the trade) and the man himself says that Bryan Colangelo “worked his tail off” to get it done, but it seems as if these talks would not have happened without a chartered accountant named Steve Fruitman.

It’s up to Colangelo now to use his newfound flexibility to fix some of the flaws I talked about. I’m very impressed that he got this done while dealing from a position of weakness after committing to Turkoglu, but this means nothing if the rest of the summer is, um, fruitless.

So, what happened between then and training camp?

The biannual exception, as expected, went to Rasho Nesterovic. The mid-level exception was used to sign his teammate from Indiana, Jarrett Jack. Bryan Colangelo was given the go-ahead to essentially buy Marco Belinelli from Golden State, sending Devean George and cash to the Bay Area. The Raptors couldn’t retain Anthony Parker, but they were able to sign Carlos Delfino and trade him and Roko Ukic to Milwaukee, in exchange for Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems. Here’s the Raptors’ roster heading into the season, again excluding Douby and his unguaranteed contract:

PG: Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Marcus Banks
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Marco Belinelli
SF: Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems
PF: Chris Bosh, Amir Johnson, Reggie Evans
C: Andrea Bargnani, Rasho Nesterovic, Patrick O’Bryant

Oct. 16, 2009, Kelly Dwyer:

“They can play. They can play solid ball on both ends, help teams, and most of all? They sop up minutes. And what most teams and fans fail to understand when a squad supposedly underachieves is that minutes don’t actually end with the two best players. They trickle all the way down.”

This quote isn’t actually about the 2009-2010 Raptors’ bench, but it may as well be. Not only are two of the players in question from Indiana’s 2008-2009 squad playing for the other side this evening at the Air Canada Centre and Tuesday at Conseco Fieldhouse, I see some parallels between these two clubs.

Last year’s Pacers were one of the league’s most fun teams to watch, even as a non-playoff team. They had the 3rd-fastest pace in the league and played in an abnormal number of close games. They were able to beat teams they probably shouldn’t, securing wins over the Celtics, Lakers, Magic, Cavaliers, and Nuggets. Obviously, it was great to see the continued ascendance of Danny Granger, who made his first All-Star team and won the Most Improved Player award. But even in losses, I always enjoyed the team as a whole, including the reserves. With injuries and role changes, I saw Jarrett Jack, T.J. Ford, Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert, Jeff Foster, Rasho Nesterovic, and Marquis Daniels both start and come off the bench. No matter the combination, the Pacers were worth my time.

Now, back to the Raptors. It’s been a season of highs and lows, but even when people were writing pieces like these and I agreed with them, I loved the bench.

Jan. 30, 2010, Holly MacKenzie:

Jay Triano on the difference between the first few months of the season and now: “We’ve gotten used to each other, where to play guys, what their strengths are. I also think our depth has been a major factor. If we’ve struggled with starts, our second unit has come in and played very well.”

Read that whole thing. Triano mentions Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, Antoine Wright, Rasho Nesterovic, Marco Belinelli, and Jarrett Jack. None of these guys would be here without that Fruitman-inspired four-way trade. All of them have contributed to the Raptors’ recent surge, which has led to people writing pieces like these.

I named Amir Johnson to my All-OTN Team because of his effort early in the season. If you catch a Raptors home game, pay attention to the crowd noise when he checks in and out of the game and you’ll see that the city has fallen in love with him, too. I don’t have much to add to what I wrote about him months ago – aside from Chris Bosh, you could make the case that he’s been the most consistent Raptor this season.

Sonny Weems has been a pleasant surprise. His effort and athleticism on the wing is similar to Johnson’s in the frontcourt. Can’t say he’s been an efficient scorer but he’s fantastic on the break and he’s an active defender. He’s found a role on this club and that’s not bad for a dude who only played 55 minutes all of last season. It’s worth noting that he and my rook DeMar DeRozan are best friends off the court and that he has a highly amusing pre-game dance routine. Seriously, it’s awesome. From the start of the pre-game introductions until the ball is tipped, he does his thing, with just a brief pause for a team huddle. I’ve been to a fair amount of games at the ACC this year and I have yet to get sick of this.

Antoine Wright had a horrific start to the year on the offensive end and I’d still advise you to stay away from his basketball-reference page. Still, he brought toughness and a commitment to defense and was a valuable guy to have in the locker room. Lately, he’s knocking down his open shots and not trying to do too much. I’m not quite ready to say he’s turned the corner, but his play has been encouraging. The Raps probably don’t get that win against Miami the other day if they don’t have Wright guarding Dwyane Wade in the fourth quarter.

You can check Rasho Nesterovic’s basketball-reference page because he has a hilariously awesome PER of 18.9. Unfortunately for Rasho, though, this is mostly a function of small sample size – he’s racked up 22 DNP-CD’s and his 8.9 minutes per game is by far the lowest of his career. As a fan of his heady, underrated game and the way he’s improved throughout his career, it disappoints me to see him riding the pine. I understand it, though – with the way Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, and Amir Johnson have been playing, it’s hard for Jay Triano to find minutes for Nesterovic. Still, the coach raves about him and you have to love his professionalism. He sits for a few games in a row and, when a matchup or foul trouble dictates that he gets some minutes, he produces. At 33 years of age, but he still has that soft touch, basketball IQ, and post defense. Let’s NBA… occasionally.

Marco Belinelli totally drives me crazy with the shots he takes. Lots of leaners, lots of fadeaways. Often contested, and often from behind the three point line. I’m not sure I’ll ever get completely comfortable with this, but I can’t deny he’s entertaining. Also, about half the times that I yell at him as he shoots, the ball goes in. I haven’t done a study on this, but I’m quite convinced that the difficulty of his shot attempts has no correlation at all with his success rate. He can be a terrific passer, too, which kind of makes up for the fact he’s a liability on D. Oh, and this probably could be a separate post, but there’s kind of a dearth of quality shooting guards in the NBA so having a bad defender at that spot on your bench isn’t that big of a deal.

Jarrett Jack has had the biggest impact of the Raptors’ off-season acquisitions and this is particularly satisfying to me because of the way the season started. For the first three weeks, he struggled to find his place as the team struggled to develop chemistry. His shot was not falling, his assist totals were inconsistent, and he didn’t provide the defensive upgrade Raptors fans were looking forward to. I absolutely loved the signing in the summer and now had to grit my teeth as the Raptors lost games and fans ripped him to shreds online. I still believed in him, but I was worried. He didn’t seem like the same player I had been watching for years. Now, though, all of that is a distant memory. Jarrett supplanted Jose Calderon as the starting point guard when he went down with an injury and even I, a long-time Calderon supporter, can’t argue for changing the rotation now that he’s back. The Raptors’ tear has coincided with Jack getting more minutes and becoming more comfortable with his teammates on the court. He has been doing a great job running the offense (he scripts plays!), getting to the basket, and being a leader. He’s playing his heart out, as he always has, and he’s developed a bond with Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, and DeMar DeRozan that has led Raptors Security Consultant Willis Richardson to dub them the Young Guns. Raptors fans love him now and I start twitching when I think about where the team would be without him.

And where is this team now? 25-22 heading into this Indiana game, good enough for 5th place in the Eastern Conference. They’re on a 4-game winning streak and they have the league’s 2nd-best record since December 18th. The offense? Elite. The defense? Much improved, even though the early-season incompetence still leaves them dead-last in defensive efficiency on the season. And the bench is producing. They’ve beaten the Cavaliers, Spurs, Magic, Mavericks, and Lakers, with all but that first one (opening night) coming in 2010. With a soft February schedule, the Raptors have a good chance of keeping this momentum going. People are legitimately excited about this team now and I love it. We have an honest-to-goodness entertaining team in this city, with guys who will hustle and can jump out of the gym. Raptors fans, enjoy this. While you’re at it, be very appreciative of Steve Fruitman.

AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

In the fourth episode of the podcast, I discuss several Eastern Conference teams with Julian and Wagman. It should be noted that we recorded this on Monday night, before AI and the Sixers thankfully snapped their horrible losing streak. I attempt to defend Nate Robinson, Wagman is shocked by Larry Hughes’s recent performance, and we all discuss Rudy Gay potentially joining Dwyane Wade in Miami next season. And yes, I messed up when talking about Rajon Rondo’s “dirty” plays last season – he hit Hinrich, not Rose.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

Ned Dishman/ Getty Images

As you may or may not recall, I actually wrote two previews for this current Raptors squad. One was a glowing, optimistic preview. The other, a pessimistic, worst-case preview. So now we’re 21 games in to the season and it looks like (true to common sense), the Raptors have landed somewhere between the two predictions. My prediction of an epic Raptors offense has come to pass (somewhat), as has my fear of an epically bad Raptors defense. The results thus far (in terms of total wins/loses) aren’t really surprising to me, nor do I think it would be to anyone who follows the NBA. Consider who the Raptors have played so far: Cleveland, Memphis, Orlando (twice), Detroit, New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio, Chicago, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix (twice), Denver, Utah, Miami, Indiana, Charlotte, Boston, Washington (twice), and Atlanta. Any right-thinking NBA fan would have the Raptors with a record of 9-12 right now. So the record of 8-13 in of itself doesn’t worry me. What worries me is the effort the Raptors have given of late, especially against Washington and Indiana.

The NBA is structured in three levels: the Haves, the Have Nots, and the I Don’t Knows. In the East, the majority of the teams fall into the I Don’t Know category while in the West it’s pretty split between the Haves and the Have Nots (thought the IDK movement is starting to build steam in the Pacific Time Zone as well). What those three categories do is essentially tell us which teams should win each game. For instance; The Haves should always win, the Have Nots should always lose (obviously reality isn’t that neat and tidy, but it usually works out).

The I Don’t Knows are the interesting characters. We don’t know if they should win or lose games at tip time, it’s equally plausible that they could do either in spectacular fashion. But one thing we do know is that the Haves are better than the IDK’s, even if an IDK can beat a Have team on occasion. Against “Have” teams (Easts Big 4, any West playoff team), the Raptors are 1 and 10. That is to be expected. Except there were a few of the 10 loses that were very close games that the Raptors were in, and competing hard right to the end. Specifically the first Phoenix game, the first Orlando game and the San Antonio game. Against Have Nots, the Raptors are 1 and 1 (the loss to Memphis). Against IDK teams, the Raptors are 6 and 2. “So what?” you say? 1-10 against good teams is still unacceptable? Well it is and it isn’t. 1-10 vs. good teams is terrible if the goal is to win an NBA Championship. But we all know the Raptors aren’t contending for the Larry O’Brien Trophy this year.

The Raptors’ goal is to make the playoffs with a somewhat decent seeding. In that context, 1-10 vs good teams doesn’t matter too much, because spots 5-8 in the Eastern Conference (the spots the Raptors are competing for) are going to an IDK team. We have to assume that Orlando/Atlanta/Boston/Cleveland are going to beat the teams like Milwaukee, Charlotte, Chicago, Indiana, Washington, Toronto and Detroit at least 7 times out of 10. No, what separates teams in the IDK category is their record against each other. These evenly-matched games count for double in the standings. They are the variable that ultimately makes the difference between the playoffs or not (for the IDK category), or a top seed or not (in the Have category).

For a topical example, let’s look at the Wizards’ and Raptors’ schedules. First let’s set some basic structure: The Have Not crew consists of New York, New Jersey, Memphis, Minnesota and Golden State. The Haves are Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, the Lakers, Dallas, Portland, San Antonio and Utah (I’d like to think these lists aren’t too contentious but let me know if you disagree). The rest of the teams fall into the I Don’t Know category. Toronto plays 30 Haves, 14 Have Nots and 38 I Don’t Knows. Washington plays 29 Haves, 14 Have Nots and 39 I Don’t Knows. Assume against the Haves and the Have nots, at the end of the day, both teams finish with records of 18-26. Sometimes they beat teams they shouldn’t, sometimes they lose to teams they shouldn’t, whatever. It’s not particularly likely that either team would finish with more than 22 wins (do you see either team beating the haves 8 times or more? Ya right.), or with less than 14 wins (I mean really, those Have Nots are TERRIBLE. Plus every underdog has his day at least once in a while).

Logically, both teams should fall within a few wins of each other in that section of their schedule in the 16-19 win range. That’s why the inter-category games are so important. The Raptors 6-2 schedule against IDK teams puts them on pace for a 28-10 record in-category. Add that to the between 16-19 wins against the Haves and the Have Nots and you have a 43+ win season. Easily good enough to make the post-season in the Eastern Conference. Compare that to the Wizards’ 4-7 record against IDK teams which puts them on pace for a 14-25 record in-category. When added to the 16-19 wins against Haves and Have Nots, that puts them on pace for a 30+ win season. An unmitigated disaster if the goal was to make the playoffs, and also a long way from the number 1 pick in the draft.

So what does that mean for the Raptors? It means as long as they continue to beat the bad teams and the I Don’t Know teams at a good rate, they can lose to the Suns as many times as they want. A loss against Phoenix shouldn’t really hurt their playoff chances. A loss against Washington does significantly more damage. Which brings me to my worry. I worry when the Raptors don’t show up with the same effort and intensity against mediocre teams as they do against good teams (sometimes). Arguably (Ed.: inarguably!), the game in Phoenix (the 101-100 loss) was the Raptors’ best game thus far this year. That same effort and intensity would turn games against the IDK teams into blowouts. But they don’t seem to bring that same energy to those games consistently. Allowing Indiana to score 112 isn’t bringing the intensity, even if the Raps won that game. Giving up 106 points at home to the Wizards isn’t going out there and working real hard either. I’d personally be happier losing to Phoenix by 19 points like the game on the 29th and giving the GREAT effort against Washington than see the Raps give everything they have, play an amazing game and come up short 101-100 to the Suns. A GREAT effort against Phoenix only gave the Raptors a chance to win the game. A great effort against Washington GUARANTEES a win. As a fan, I may say I want competitiveness, or close exciting games, but that’s bullshit. At the end of the day I want wins and playoff games.

See, here’s the thing: Every fan wants/expects consistent effort and intensity for 48 minutes. But the reality is that consistency is what separates good teams from bad. Very few teams will be totally consistent (even Cleveland/Boston are still getting there this year), and expecting a team like the Raptors or Wizards to be that consistent is realistically expecting too much. The vast majority of teams with have some good days and some bad days and that is the defining characteristic of an I Don’t Know team. (Important note: By bad day I mean taking 8 or 9 minutes off on one end of the floor or another. Anything beyond that is simply unacceptable from a professional athlete). Well, if the Raptors have 41 good efforts and 41 bad efforts in them I’d rather see the bad efforts in the games that the team is probably going to lose anyway. Obviously that’s an oversimplification, but I think you get my point. The Raptors wasting a great effort against Phoenix and shitting the bed against Washington (the first time) led to an 0-2 record. Had they reversed the efforts in those games they’d have one more win. It’s that simple. This is basketball, not figure skating. There are no style points or moral defeats. There are only wins and losses.

Besides that, psychologically there’s no shame in losing to a team that’s better than you are. If as I’m writing this, Kelly Dwyer is writing something using the same basic premise and just flat out wrote a better article than I did, I can walk away going “Wow. We were thinking the same thing! I just need to get to his level of writing.” Whereas if James was writing something using the same basic premise and did a better job than me, I’m sitting in my room rocking back and forth trying to figure out where I went wrong with my life (Ed.: Asshole. Good to see the Dwyer love, though.). NBA teams are starting to embrace the impact that psychology has in pro athletes, with some (like the Raptors) bringing in psychiatrists to talk to/help the players. Think about it in terms of your own life. When you attempt to do something against someone who is better than you and come up short (whether it’s in bowling/golf/pool/drinking contests, whatever), you aren’t going to take the loss as personally. The loss shows you the gap in talent, and how much you need to improve to try and challenge the person next time. It’s a constructive loss, no matter if you were close or not.

Contrast that to if you lose to someone inferior than you, instead of that admiration/respect for the other person, you instead get angry at yourself. After all, YOU blew the game you were supposed to win. Since everyone there KNEW you were better, but you just got unlucky, or fucked up. Well if you’re on a team, that anger can cause the disintegration of a team. That anger leads to finger pointing, and finger pointing if done inappropriately can fracture a team. (Side note: this is where vets with winning experience help). This finger pointing is what worries me. The Raptors DO have some strong veteran leadership available (I’m thinking mainly of Rasho here), but they also have a lot of veteran leadership who don’t really know how to win. I’m not convinced Turkoglu has the intestinal fortitude to play the role here he’s being asked to play. I’m not sure that Jose has the necessary abilities to play the role he is being asked to play. I’m not sure that Chris Bosh is able to properly vocalize his needs to anyone, and I KNOW Bargnani mentally isn’t there yet (just look at his numbers at home vs. on the road). The Raptors have the makeup of a fragile team, a team with a number of fault lines that could crack from the right pressure.

Ideally, I’d say just get Colangelo to fix those fault lines. But mid-season it’s hard to make serious changes to a team, so they basically are who they are (unless a GM gives away a player anyway). The best way for the Raptors to avoid melting down and to maximize their potential wins this season is to continue to bring the ruckus against the other teams fighting for the playoffs in both conferences. If the Raps want to take a night off, take it off against one of the elite teams. There are 30 games they can coast through if they want. I personally would be happy if they won 6 of those games. If they won 10 I’d be over the moon. The other 20 they can sleepwalk through. They can be lackadaisical getting back on defence, they can make bad passes, run stagnant offensive sets, not switch on defence. I don’t care. Just do me (and my heart, and most breakable objects in my basement) a favour and don’t let me see that against other I Don’t Know teams.

Sometimes, you just get beat. It happens. If the Raptors were good enough to beat every I Don’t Know team every time, they wouldn’t be an I Don’t Know team. But losing due to a lack of effort is an insult to the fans and to the players themselves, and it should be made clear through the entire organization, from Larry Tannenbaum to Marcus Banks, that it won’t be tolerated. THAT is the difference between playoff teams and non playoff teams, and eventually what allows teams to transition from good I Don’t Know teams to Have teams. After all, ultimately that is the goal: move up the IDK team hierarchy, eventually become a Have team, become a contender for the title, win a title. That’s the plan, anyway. See? The sky isn’t falling. Yet.

Layne Murdoch/Getty Images

I, and I think a lot of other Raptor fans have been impressed with Amir Johnson off of the bench. He has a very good motor, puts a lot of energy into getting on the glass, plays tough defense and seems like a good teammate who knows his role.

More than anything, the fact that he knows his role is extremely important. Let’s face it; he doesn’t have a lot of offensive skill other than hitting the offensive glass, getting putbacks and dunking while open. In that sense, knowing what you can do and not do is really significant. Why not get the ball into the other very talented offensive players’ hands?

That, in my opinion, was lacking in another Raptors player during the preseason. Reggie Evans seemed very selfish with the ball, and there were instances where he would even attempt to dribble the ball down the court himself instead of giving it up. He also seemed extremely reluctant to pass the ball out of the post after getting an offensive rebound. He would take shots where he was covered by the opposing center AND another player. Often he would be fouled, but he converts free throws at a poor rate.

Johnson’s stats aren’t eye-popping at first glance. 4.4 points and 4.8 rebounds in 16 minutes doesn’t seem that impressive. Over 36 minutes, that translates to approximately 10 and 10, and he is shooting an impressive 62% FG% and an incredible 65% TS%. This is largely because he plays close to the basket and takes only very easy shots, but as I alluded to earlier, Toronto does not need its less offensively skilled players taking bad shots (which his FG% attests to). Obviously, his 7.1 fouls per 36 make him usable only sparingly, but there are already very few minutes left with Bosh and Bargnani playing so many. Compare this with Reggie Evans who has shot an unimpressive 44% FG% his past two seasons in the league. Forcing things that aren’t there can really take a toll on your efficiency numbers.

The rose-colored glasses aren’t on too tight, however, because fouling is obviously the biggest concern with Amir. Not only does it limit how many minutes he can play, it puts the team into the penalty much sooner when he is on the floor. I think the thing to remember is that Amir Johnson, even with those imposing-looking tattoos all over his body, is only 22 years old. 22! He was drafted right out of high school, and basically had to figure out which position he was going to play, and what his skill-set was. Detroit fans were all over Amir Johnson, because of his athletic body, and motor. However, after a disappointing season where he was pushed into the starting lineup, Detroit fans seemed to jump off the Amir bandwagon as quickly as they hopped on, and he was traded that offseason.

Detroit fans thought originally that he was going to be a 3 because he was very mobile and had a slight body a few years ago, but I think it’s pretty obvious what position Johnson plays now. Johnson is an undersized 5. He is strong, has long arms, is athletic and plays virtually all of his minutes in and around the paint, and his statistics heavily point in that direction. I think with a more defined role, and allowing him to make mistakes on the court his foul rate will start decreasing, and his confidence will grow and he will become more familiar with his teammates.

I think there is a certain chemistry between Amir and Marco Belinelli. Belinelli is a pretty imaginative passer, and has the ability to get the ball into a post player’s hands in a position to score. Amir provides solid picks for Belinelli, who has been very willing to drive and get to the basket. If we the Raptors can get some chemistry from our bench positions, I don’t think they should break that up with a selfish me-first player. Amir can give you the qualities that Reggie does off the bench, without the bad qualities Reggie has been known to display, and is younger.

My concern is that Reggie’s contract and veteran status might put him in the lineup at the expense of Amir, who has been fitting into that role very well off the bench, despite his penchant for fouling. That would be a damn shame, as it would deprive us Raptors fans from watching a fine young talent develop.

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In our first podcast, Julian, Eric, and I discuss the Iverson/Memphis debacle, Earl Smith III, Stephen Jackson’s agent vs. Nellie, the ridiculousness of the Raptors, the success of the Suns and Nuggets, the failures of the Cavs and Hornets, and Kobe’s newfound appreciation for the post-up game. Oh, and we play a little game.

We recorded this yesterday, before watching the slew of awesome games covered here and here. So, we didn’t get to talk about Brad Miller’s near-buzzer-beater or Travis Outlaw’s vicious dunk on Rudy Gay. We’ve got you covered on Matt Bonner dunk analysis, though.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

Around T.O. of late, much has been made about the lack of success we’ve had as a sports city. Outside of the Toronto Argonauts winning the Grey Cup in 1996, 1997 and 2004, and of course the Toronto Rock (lacrosse) title run that exhilarated dozens and dozens of Torontonians, the only Championship teams we’ve been able to celebrate were the 1992 and 1993 Toronto Blue Jays. Before that, the 1991 and 1983 Toronto Argos and before that was the infamous 1967 Maple Leafs. However, these old numbers don’t really mean much in today’s terms; it’s not like the Jays were suffering through (another) decade of mediocrity in the 1960’s, and they weren’t expected to compete for the 1970’s or much of the 80’s. As for the Argos, quite frankly, back when there were 2 or 3 sports in this city the Argos meant much more (as an Argos fan it’s tough to admit). The Raptors didn’t even exist until 1995 so it’s hardly their fault. No, the years since 1994 have been much, much worse than any previous lean years here.

In the Summer of 1994, things had never looked better for Toronto Sports as a whole. The Maple Leafs finished their season 2nd in the Western Conference and in their division to the Detroit Red Wings. In the playoffs they made it to the Western Conference Finals, losing to the upstart Canucks in 5 games. However that was the 2nd consecutive conference final for the club and the team seemed to be going somewhere for the first time since the late 1970’s. Coming off back to back World Series Titles, the Blue Jays started off the 94 season .500 (a bit of a World Series hangover) before falling into a slump in June, going from .500 at the start of the month to 12 games under by the end of it. However in July they turned it around and began really heating up. They finished July only 5 games under .500, which is where they sat on August 11th (an important date). And just before the summer, on May 15th of 1994 the new basketball team in the city of Toronto was given its name; the Toronto Raptors. On May 24th, the team colours and our first General Manager (Isiah Thomas, you may have heard of him) were announced. Even in Argo-land things were on the upswing. The ownership group of Wayne Gretzky, Bruce McNall and John Candy had run into serious problems that offseason when John Candy died of a heart attack and McNall went bankrupt (generally two very bad signs for a sports team). Fortunately a new buyer stepped up right away and there wasn’t much of a hiccup for the franchise. The CFL as a league was doing better than ever, too; expanding to Las Vegas, Shreveport, and Baltimore. And around the country, the Canucks had just lost in the cup final while the year before the Canadiens won the Stanley Cup. Yes, by August 11th things were looking pretty good in Toronto and across the country.

Then August 11th happened. On August 11th, 1994, the Blue Jays were 3rd in the division, pretty well back of the Yankees but seemingly coming together. The Expos were the best team in Baseball, dominant enough that people across Canada began dreaming of a World Series pitting the Blue Jays against the Expos. That is, until August 11th. That day, an entire generation of sports fans (mine) lost our innocence. Baseball owners, unable to come to terms with players for a collective bargaining agreement locked the players out. The World Series was cancelled. The Blue Jays haven’t been within 5 games of the playoffs since, after winning 5 divisional titles from 1985 to 1993. Of course, we all know what happened to the Expos within 8 years of that. Similarly, things didn’t exactly start exquisitely for the Raptors. Outside of the victory over the 72-win Bulls (the first basketball game I ever attended), the Raptors never really made any noise for a few years, and weren’t able to make the playoffs for the first time until 1999. And in the Raptors’ 15 years of existence, they have only made it out of the first round of the playoffs one single time. The Maple Leafs fell off badly in 1994/1995. They imploded, finishing 5th in their division, barely made the playoffs and were eliminated in the first round by the Chicago Blackhawks. So much for building something. The Argos were uncompetitive for a few years until they built 2 of the greatest teams ever in 1996 and 1997. However, outside those 2 years, the Argo’s haven’t really been truly competitive. Even their Grey Cup in 2005 was somewhat fluky, requiring upsets over heavily favoured Montreal and BC. More miraculous run than league domination. Montreal of course, got its Allouettes back when the CFL team from Baltimore relocated there after the Cleveland Browns moved to Baltimore, becoming the Ravens. Baltimore was the lone success story from the CFL’s American Expansion on and off the field. They attracted decent crowds and even won the Grey Cup once and losing in it one other time before the move. Shreveport and Las Vegas were unmitigated disasters. Read up on them, their stories are kinda interesting. That is if you’re the sort who’s into CFL history… Hello? Anyone? I know you’re out there, I can hear you breathing. Seriously though, this is some of the worst decision-making in the history of professional sports, and that’s saying something.

Yes, by 1995 a funk had set in in Toronto, and across Canada. Since that year, 3 Canadian teams have lost Stanley Cup Finals with zero Cup wins, 11 CFL teams have either folded or declared Bankruptcy (I’m counting Ottawa twice here. An astonishing number nonetheless). As the CFL contracted, the NHL moved clubs from Winnipeg and Quebec City, the Expos were ripped out of Montreal and placed in Washington. The Grizzlies failed in Vancouver (and by failed, I mean were basically sabotaged. No chance for success) and moved to Memphis, where good basketball now comes to die. The Raptors and their fans have dealt with playing in a baseball stadium, the rise and fall of Tracy McGrady, the rise and fall of Vince Carter, the Kevin O’Neill year, Vince’s mom, Rob Babcock, and Rafael Arauajo. We’ve had one playoff series victory, in a 5 game series. Yes, it’s been a long cold winter up here since 1994.

So, it’s almost 2010. Where are we? The Blue Jays continue to twist the knife into the hearts of their fans. With the Jays’ only true superstar, Roy Halladay, poised to enter his last season as a Jay. The Maple Leafs are winless over 3 weeks into the season, have 2 hurt goalies, and seem to be going nowhere fast. The rest of the Canadian NHL teams seem OK, but none are cup contenders. The Argos have won 3 home games in 2 seasons. Toronto FC had to beat the worst team in the league on the second last day of the season to make the playoffs, and as I type this are down 5-0 (Note: NY Red Bulls needed 4 goals this game to avoid the record for fewest goals in an MLS season, and putting a seal on their status as Worst MLSE Team Ever. I don’t even want to think about this anymore). Even the fucking Toronto Rock have fallen onto hard times. The only team in this city that truly seems like it’s trying to build something is the Raptors.

Things have changed a lot in Toronto since 1994. Baseball and hockey have somewhat stagnated as far as fan growth is concerned, while basketball and soccer are exploding around the multicultural GTA. The somewhat knowledgeable and extremely vocal fanbase is not sitting passively waiting for a good team either, we’re demanding one. The pressure on the Raptors a few years ago pushed Babcock out the door, and after a brief and fairly successful interim GM (Wayne Embry), the then-reigning Executive of the Year Bryan Colangelo was hired. Colangelo is in his 4th year now. He’s made the playoffs twice and missed once. This is his year to make or break this club, thus his total remodelling of the franchise in the offseason. Colangelo brought in pieces to try and compete today. Not building for 3-4 years down the road. He didn’t tell us we can’t compete in a division with the high-spending Celtics and Knicks. He didn’t blame the salary cap for limiting the quality and amount of players we’re able to bring in. He didn’t blame poor coaching for 2 years of poor showings (well… maybe kinda). He gave us hope. This is all even we hardened sports fans asked for. But now he has to capitalize on this hope, lest the growth of basketball start to stagnate like hockey and baseball.

Toronto as a sports market is interesting. The fans are incredibly passionate, yet for sports other than the Leafs we have a tendency to ignore clubs in their down times. That’s the kind of dangerous game that they play in Seattle that cost them the Sonics and nearly caused the Mariners to go bankrupt. However, it is good for the team because all they need to do is become competitive and they are guaranteed sell outs. It forces the clubs to try and do well. And fortunately for them, thanks to the previous 14 years of sports failure lowering our expectations, we fans have a low definition for success. We aren’t talking about the 1990’s Atlanta Braves here after all. Even a .500 club can ignite this town, and hoops fans across the country.

Bill Simmons has a theory that the collective karma of one sports city can be changed by one team. His example was the 2002 Patriots’ improbable Super Bowl win. The city of Boston’s karma change allowed the Red Sox to turn into a mini-dynasty (that seems to be on its last legs, thank god), the Patriots to turn into a full-fledged dynasty and even contributed to the rejuvenation of the Celtics and Bruins. While I don’t buy his theory that new karma allowed these teams to win, I do agree in that I think teams can feed off other clubs in the same city in two ways. First, increased fan expectations and the pressure of staying relevant within your market force the organization to get competitive fast – imagine what the Celtics’ front office was thinking when all of the sudden they were the 3rd team in Boston? Second, there is a spin-off of confidence. I’m a big believer that confidence is the biggest and most important intangible in sports. When players expect to win, they play better. When players expect to lose they will. Just like all people, when you expect failure, failure has a way of finding you. Plus, just as fans get swept up in excitement when a local team does well, so do all other sports fans within the same city (How can you not? Following a winning team is… well to be honest I’ve forgotten what it’s like. That may be the saddest thing in this whole story. But I remember enough to know that it’s glorious). Professional athletes are people too. And we know they’re sports people. Besides, after everything is said and done, everyone likes a winner.

Right now, in Toronto, we have no winners. As someone who is almost equally obsessed with our 5 major teams (for any Yanks reading this that’s the Maple Leafs, Raptors, Blue Jays, Argos, and Toronto FC), it pains me to say this; but we aren’t winners. We have a collective loser’s mentality. We expect to lose, we fear the inevitable losses coming around the bend just out of sight, we expect our big stars to cut town and run, we assume that people don’t want to play here for stupid fucking reasons. We’re a bunch of whiny losers. But all that we need to change our loser’s mentality is just one single fucking winner. Just one. The only team that even has a hope in hell of doing that in this city is the Raptors. The Raptors have the talent, they have the General Manager, they have the coach, they have the fans. They even have the opportunity (the wide openness of the Eastern Conference playoff picture). If the Raptors can win but a single round in the post season, it could alter the destinies of untold amounts of franchises around it. We need it as a city. As a country.

Since 2004, only 1 Toronto team has won a round in the playoffs. And they won one single, solitary playoff round. That’s right, one. And it was the Argos over Winnipeg in 2005 (which barely counts since it was the first round of CFL playoffs. Considering 6 teams make the post season in a 9 team league, that’s not too impressive). It’s 2009. We NEED this Raptors season to be a success. We NEED them to not only make the playoffs, but look like they aren’t just going to roll over and die once they get there. And more than that, we NEED to continue to build on the air of hope and optimism that the Raptors have right now. Because it won’t last forever, nothing ever does. The Blue Jays are finding out what long runs of mediocrity can do to a once vibrant and passionate fan base. I don’t ever want to see the Raptors honeymoon ending. I hope the Raptors players and more importantly Colangelo and Jay Triano understand the significance of this season; by 2010/2011 they could be faced with a re-armed Leafs team, the continued growth of TFC, and the possibility of a Raptors team searching for a new GM, a new franchise player, and a new identity. Rebuilding again. Right now, it’s all in the Raptors’ hands. All they have to do is win. Just win baby. Just win. Win and Bosh stays (probably). Win and Colangelo and Triano stay. Win and the Raptors’ place in the fickle Toronto market is secure, no matter what the other Toronto teams do. Win and continue to grow both the game of basketball and the Raptors brand across the country, and even around the world. Win because the Raptors really don’t have any other options. It’s either continue building for a future title run, or blow it all up and start over at square one, again. And stab us Toronto fans in the back again. The only good thing I can think of in that scenario is once you’ve already been stabbed 40 times, what’s the 41st one going to do? After all, what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger. Eh tu brutus?

Remember how crazy the West was 2-through-9 last year? We knew no one would catch the Lakers, and we knew you’d have to win close to 50 games to make the playoffs, but we had no idea how everything would shake out in the end. There was one great team in the conference, a bunch of very good teams, and then a whole bunch of crap. No Western team won between 29 (Golden State) and 46 (Phoenix) games.

Well, the East is even crazier than that this year, but the action is all in the middle. I see three teams that should easily win more than 46 games as presently constructed and only two that might finish with fewer than 29. That’s almost what happened last season, but what’s even more interesting is that, if forced to predict team records this season, I’d argue that there are ten Eastern teams that could hover around the 40-42 win mark.

Here’s a look at the big clusterfuck:

Atlanta Hawks

2008-2009: 47-35. 10th in offense. 11th in defense.

You might wonder why these guys are on the list, as they had home court advantage in the playoffs last season. They’re also the only team on this list that was above-average on both ends of the court last season. Plus, they’ve got continuity – in re-signing Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, and Marvin Williams, they’ve kept their core intact. Adding Joe Smith and Jeff Teague should improve their bench, too. Still, I see a couple of reasons why they could slip back in the standings. First, there’s the Jamal Crawford signing. At first glance, this seems like a positive move. He is, if only slightly, a better player statistically than Filp Murray, the man he is replacing. However, he is allergic to defense. Murray isn’t great at that end of the court either, but I’d rather have him out there than Jamal. Additionally, Murray was only out there for 24 minutes a night, which is what he’s been used to as a sparkplug scorer off the bench. Crawford has been accustomed to a more prominent role and has received significantly more minutes than that since 2003-2004, which leads me to question how this will work out. There are two potential problem scenarios here – having a bad defender on the court for too long, or having an unhappy Crawford cause problems in the locker room. In addition to all this, I see a second challenge in the way of Atlanta getting back to 47 wins, one that faces all of the teams I will cover here: other teams have improved. Atlanta went 26-7 against the other nine teams on this list last season and I believe this will be a significantly more difficult thing to do this time around. Even if they are still the best of the group, there is a smaller gulf between the Hawks and the teams who finished beneath them in the standings last year, one that might not make up for the fact that they are clearly a couple of notches away from being an elite team. Unless their young talent and/or coach Mike Woodson provides the club with improvement from within, expect a step back.

Miami Heat

2008-2009: 43-39. 20th in offense. 11th in defense.

If Jermaine O’Neal plays like he did in the first half of the decade for Indiana, and he manages to stay on the court, this team can improve. Reading the reports in Miami might make you seem optimistic about this, but I’m here to remind you that this is the same exact stuff we heard in Toronto last year. I truly hope Jermaine will be more than a half-decent jump-shooter and shot-blocker this season, but I remain very, very skeptical. Even if Jermaine O’Neal remains average, though, shouldn’t Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley improve enough to add some wins? I’m not sure. Chalmers is a nice piece but I don’t see him being much of a game-changer this season. Beasley is more interesting – this is an extremely talented kid that deserves a bigger role than he had last season. If they park him on the block and give him the ball, he can score at will. With more minutes and more touches this season, he could help the Heat win more games. I’m worried about him, though, because Erik Spoelstra is going to try to play him at the 3. This is not his position. He’s going to struggle to guard 3s and he’s going to have a tougher time scoring. If they don’t get more offense out of Beasley and O’Neal, I think they could drop in the standings even if Wade turns in another MVP-level season – the drop-off on the defensive end from Marion/Moon to Beasley/James Jones/Q-Rich is huge.

Philadelphia 76ers

2008-2009: 41-41. 19th in offense. 13th in defense.

This team has some good players and a good coach, but there’s no way to know if they’re going to put it together, or put it together in time to really make a mark. They struggled integrating Elton Brand last year – we knew it would take some time to integrate a traditional post player into their athletic, fast-paced, turnover-causing attack, but didn’t think it’d be so difficult that everyone seemed relieved when the team’s best player was sidelined with an injury. Since last season, they’ve lost their starting point guard in Andre Miller and haven’t done much about it. Sure, he was lazy at times, but he was solid and, no, Jrue Holiday is not a replacement. This season we’ll see some improvement from Philly’s young guys, we’ll see a lot of Andre Iguodala handling the ball, and we’ll (hopefully) see a much more effective Elton Brand than we saw for bits of the 2008-2009 regular season. With the time it’ll take for this team to properly learn Eddie Jordan’s offense, though, and its still-obvious lack of shooters (even with Jason Kapono on the roster), I find it difficult to imagine them separating themselves from the pack in the East.

Chicago Bulls

2008-2009: 41-41. 14th in offense. 18th in defense.

Having John Salmons and Brad Miller around for the full season will help. So will having Luol Deng back. It even seems like Taj Gibson can contribute. So, why am I not projecting a big leap? Well, for one, they lost Ben Gordon. Complain all you want about his shot selection and his defense, but he is a very, very good player who the Bulls haven’t replaced. Before you scoff at the contested jumpers he puts up, realize he is an incredibly efficient scorer – his TS% of 57.2 is absolutely an elite number for a shooting guard, on par with that of Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade. I’m not going to argue that he is a great defender, but Scott Skiles was able to effectively mask his defensive deficiencies for years. Please don’t think of Jannero Pargo as an adequate replacement. Still, with improvement from Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah, this team might have the highest ceiling of any on this list. To finish at the top would require a fantastic coaching effort, though, and with Vinny Del Negro at the helm I am definitely not counting on it.

Detroit Pistons

2008-2009: 39-43. 21st in offense. 16th in defense.

Do not count on the Pistons finishing 21st in offensive efficiency next season. With Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Wilcox joining Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, Will Bynum, and Jason Maxiell, new coach John Kuester has plenty of scoring options to work with. Kuester is the man who re-worked the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense last season, when they jumped from the league’s 19th-best offensive team to its 4th-best. Even though they’ve been absolutely great in previous years, Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace hurt the Pistons on both ends of the floor last year. The long jump shots and sub-par defense we saw from these two last season is the reason we have the term “addition by subtraction”. Detroit fans should be expect a much more functional locker room than the one Michael Curry dealt with last season, plus potentially one of the league’s top offenses. This is all good stuff. There’s a reason I’m not expecting an enormous jump in the standings, though: defense. Charlie V. and Ben Gordon will be huge boosts on the offensive end of the floor, but these guys will never be mistaken for defensive stoppers. Same with Wilcox. They’ve brought Ben Wallace back, but at this point in his career I’d argue that Kwame Brown is a more useful defensive player. I would be very impressed if Kuester managed to keep this club at around the league average next season, that’s what it would take in order to move into the upper echelon of the conference, even if these Pistons are up there with Portland in terms of offensive potency.

Indiana Pacers

2008-2009: 38-44. 17th in offense. 19th in defense.

I’m not going to tell you that the Pacers are more talented this year. They’re not – swapping Marquis Daniels, Rasho Nesterovic, and Jarrett Jack for Dahntay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, and Earl Watson shouldn’t get any Pacers fan excited. Here’s the thing, though: these downgrades don’t prevent Indiana from winning a few more games than last year. Brandon Rush had a killer end of the season, Roy Hibbert was already a very effective center in his rookie campaign, and T.J. Ford is better than what he showed last season. I’d bet on all of them being more consistent this season. You have to hope that T.J. can stay healthy and Hibbert will cut down on the fouls, but the potential is there for 3/5ths of the Pacers starting unit (at least until Mike Dunleavy returns) to show considerable improvement. In addition to this, Danny Granger will continue the ascent to stardom that got him an All-Star berth and the Most Improved Player award in 2008-2009. I’m not fond of the Pacers’ overall plan or long-term outlook, but I won’t be at all surprised if they’re in the thick of the playoff hunt next season. I’d encourage you to pay attention to this team even if they’re not, though, as Jim O’Brien’s club played at the 3rd-fastest pace of any team last season and were a ton of fun to watch.

Charlotte Bobcats

2008-2009: 35-47. 27th in offense. 7th in defense.

The Bobcats wanted that 8th seed last year more than perhaps any franchise I’ve ever seen. Eschewing the bottom-out-and-get-draft-picks plan, coach Larry Brown pressured management into acquiring veterans Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Juwan Howard in the hopes of having the Bobcats’ most successful season yet. To his credit, he technically did that, as the Bobcats had previously never eclipsed the 33-win mark. Brown managed to impart his defensive wisdom on the young and old on the roster, making Charlotte one of the league’s best defensive teams by the end of the season. While I think none of this was/is in the best interest of the team’s future, I expect the Bobcats will make another charge at a low playoff seed in 2009-2010. This time, the vast majority of the key players are already used to Brown’s coaching style and this could translate into a few more wins. It’s a shame they took a step down by trading the solid Emeka Okafor for the chronically-injured Tyson Chandler, but they gained some ground by adding some much-needed wing scoring in Flip Murray and Gerald Henderson. If their defense sustains and they make some strides on the offensive end (a good start would be increasing D.J. Augustin’s minutes), then they’ll be in the mix.

Milwaukee Bucks

2008-2009: 34-48. 23rd in offense. 11th in defense.

You’ve got to love Scott Skiles, at least for the first few years he coaches a team. Even though they were overmatched some nights last season, the Bucks always competed. Even with guys like Luke Ridnour and Charlie Villanueva playing major minutes, the Bucks maintained an above-average defense and avoided toiling in the league’s cellar. Now, though, after losing three of their best players in Villanueva, Ramon Sessions and Richard Jefferson, can they be better? I say yes. The most impressive part about what Skiles accomplished last year in Milwaukee was the fact that he did it with Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut missing more than half of the season. With these guys coming back, expect a big jump on offense. And even though the Bucks failed to make any headline-grabbing news this summer, they did add some pieces to try to make up for what they gave away. Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, and Carlos Delfino can contribute right away and they hope to get contributions from Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Jennings, Jodie Meeks, and Roko Ukic as well. All this, plus the presence of the defensive-minded, brilliantly-named Luc Richard Mbah A Moute! I must say, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the Bucks.

Toronto Raptors

2008-2009: 33-49. 22nd in offense. 22nd in defense.

Kelly Dwyer was right when he said last year’s version of Jose Calderon was only at full strength for about a third of his 68 appearances. This is the single biggest reason why I expect the Raptors to make a jump from their terrible record last season. As a Raptors fan, it pained me to watch Jose last year. This guy who couldn’t move laterally, couldn’t turn the corner on the pick and roll, and couldn’t get the proper lift on his three-point shots was not the same guy I had seen running the point in TO the year before. The guy I had seen before was a danger to shoot at all times, ran the offense perfectly, knew when to attack, and made his teammates much better. Sure, he wasn’t an all-world defender, but he wasn’t a liability on that end, either. This All-Star-worthy version of Calderon is the man who I expect to be running the team this year, and this is why I project them to jump into the playoff picture. In Jarrett Jack, Rasho Nesterovic, Amir Johnson, and Antoine Wright, the Raptors have a much-improved bench and the addition of Hedo Turkoglu into the starting lineup alongside Chris Bosh, Calderon, and Andrea Bargnani could give Toronto one of the most potent offenses in the league. Hence, there is optimism in Toronto. Don’t believe the 50-win nonsense, though – this team is still too weak defensively and at the 2-guard spot to approach that number. That is, of course, unless Bargnani drinks some magical defense-and-rebounding juice and Jay Triano does a Stan Van Gundy-esque job of getting his weak defenders to play intelligent team D.

Washington Wizards

2008-2009: 19-63. 26th in offense. 29th in defense.

I’m sure you know that this is a completely different team to the Wizards of last year. With a healthy Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood, last year wouldn’t have been the nightmare that it was. Add Randy Foye and Mike Miller to the lineup, plus the coaching of Flip Saunders, and you have a team that will likely make a bigger jump than any other in 2009-2010. With a starting 5 of Arenas, Foye/Miller, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Brendan Haywood, opposing defenses are in for long nights against the Wiz. The problem, of course, is that opposing offenses may be in for easy nights. As great as this Wizards team looks offensively, with the aforementioned top six plus Fabricio Oberto, DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche, they look bad defensively. I love Flip, but he is more of an offensive guru and I doubt there’s a coach in this league that could make this bunch into a decent defensive group. If he does, they’re better than most teams here. If he doesn’t, as I expect, well… What do you get if you’re league-best on one end and league-worst on the other? Another middle-of-the-pack club.

What does this all mean? Well, all of the above teams are flawed. Flawed enough that they won’t approach the win totals of Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston if those teams stay relatively healthy. It also means they all have talent, though, and they’re all capable of beating better Western Conference teams on a random night in February. We know that, with trades and injuries, things will change for these teams and how they rank in comparison to each other as the season goes along. When we near the end of the season, though, I’m sure it’ll be a right mess trying to figure out which teams will make it into the playoffs and which of those will be lucky enough to get the 4th and 5th seeds and avoid facing one of the aforementioned juggernauts in the first round. Sure, the vast majority of these teams won’t play a game in May or June, but they will provide us with some pretty damn good basketball during the regular season. For a guy will be flipping from game to game on League Pass every night starting in two and a half weeks, this is something to be excited about.